Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
838 FXUS62 KKEY 030909 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 409 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Coastal flooding will continue through the next several days, especially in the Upper Keys. - Rain chances will remain slightly above normal today. Locally heavy rainfall, especially when coincident with high tides may exacerbate coastal flooding impacts. - Rain chances will diminish over the following few days to near or slightly below normal. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026 A strong surface Atlantic ridge stretches westward across the eastern United States while a weak trough remains in the southeastern Gulf. This is resulting in east to southeasterly breezes that are moderate on our eastern zones and light on our west. This ridge trough arrangement is resulting in organized lower level veering and confluence across our area. However, upper level support around a southern stream trough is not aligned overhead. For the time being, activity across the Keys has largely washed out in recent hours. With that said, scattered to numerous activity is present on the distant Florida Straits and beyond. Temperatures have come down to near 80 with dew points in the mid to upper 70s. The southeastern Gulf troughing is expected to weaken as it shifts north northwestward into the northeastern Gulf. This should take the best low level confluence with it. However, some low level lift is expected to continue through today, along with deep layered moisture remaining rather high. In addition, the environment is expected to be uncapped with ample CAPE. As a result, rain chances will remain moderately above normal for this time of year. The Atlantic ridge will remain positioned off to our north, but the gradient is expected to slacken slightly through the day. Expect seasonal temperatures, but dew points remaining above normal in the mid to upper 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 400 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026 A robust Atlantic ridge stretching westward through the eastern United States is maintaining east to southeasterly breezes across Keys waters this morning. There is a wind speeding gradient across our waters with moderate breezes off to our east and light breezes to the west. This is due to stubborn troughing in the southeastern Gulf. This trough is expected to finally move northwestward today. Meanwhile, the pressure gradient in the South Florida region should relax some today. Together, breezes will become a bit more uniform gentle east to southeasterly today. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 400 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals today. Surface winds will be light out of the east to southeast. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory for FLZ076. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...11 Aviation/Nowcasts....11 Data Acquisition.....11 Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and X at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.x.com/nwskeywest