Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
815 FXUS62 KKEY 021012 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 512 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Coastal flooding will continue through the next several days, especially in the Upper Keys. - A wet, stormy period will continue through today. Locally heavy rainfall, especially when coincident with high tides, will exacerbate coastal flooding impacts. - Much drier conditions are expected for Tuesday through the remainder of the work week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 400 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026 A sloppy pattern is in place across the forecast area as the overnight shift has seen plenty of showers and thunderstorms on our KBYX radar throughout the overnight hours. GOES-19 water vapor imagery depicts a disturbance parked over the eastern Gulf this morning. CIMSS vorticity analysis indicates that this feature may be confined to the lower to mid levels as there seems to be a loss of vertical continuity between 500mb and 200mb. Closer to the surface, storm motion on radar shows some confluence aiding in lift, so the current activity is likely to continue into the early morning hours. MRMS estimations highlight 6-hour rainfall amounts of nearly three quarters of an inch across portions of the Lower Keys, but the true rainmakers have remained over the local waters. There are a few bullseyes across the western Florida Straits where 3 to 5 inches may have fallen in the past six hours. Satellite-derived PWAT shows a swath of values near 2 inches across the area, which is just above the 90th percentile for this time of year. All of this is to say that our rain and thunder chances will remain elevated through today as the aforementioned feature percolates over the eastern Gulf. Expected rainfall amounts along the island chain for today and tonight are up to an inch, which is fairly manageable over that timeframe. However, similar to yesterday, there will be pockets of heavier/stronger showers and thunderstorms. If any of these pockets traverse the island chain, rainfall amounts will skew higher. If heavier showers occur around the times of our higher tides, this could exacerbate flooding as well. The Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect to address the elevated high tides, but additional flood products may be needed if the stronger showers cross the Keys. The inherited forecast advertises a 70% chance of rain today decreasing to 50% tonight, and this seems reasonable given the ingredients in place. No changes or updates are needed with this early morning update. && .MARINE... Issued at 400 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026 Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until winds decrease across eastern portions of the Florida Straits. Elevated chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue through today, and will result in localized hazardous marine conditions at times. Activity will taper off later tonight, and conditions will improve thereafter. Drier weather with slackening winds will settle in through the remainder of the week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 400 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026 A wet pattern across the area will likely result in a few rounds of sub VFR conditions and gusty winds, particularly this morning. Thunderstorms will be possible. Surface winds will be gentle to moderate easterly to start, slackening to light to gentle northeast to easterly. && .CLIMATE... On this day in Keys Weather History, in 2015, the daily record warm low temperature of 81F was recorded in Key West. This is also the warmest low ever recorded in November. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 83 76 84 77 / 60 40 30 30 Marathon 84 77 85 77 / 70 50 30 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EST Tuesday for FLZ076>078. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...DP Aviation/Nowcasts....11 Data Acquisition.....DP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and X at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.x.com/nwskeywest