Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
929 FXUS62 KKEY 210914 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 414 AM EST Fri Nov 21 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Deep layered ridging will predominate through the weekend and into next week keeping breezes gentle and rain chances out. -Surface ridging to our north will be reinforced by a broad continental high, resulting in strengthening breezes and slight rain chances early to mid week. -Temperatures will range near to slightly above normal with dew points holding in the upper 60s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 AM EST Fri Nov 21 2025 Deep layered ridging remains in control with an upper level ridge aligned along our longitude and lower level ridging centered over Florida. This is keeping very dry and stable conditions across our broader area. A messy surface ridge is aligned along the Atlantic Coast and Florida, resulting in mostly gentle northeast to easterly breezes along the Keys. This flow is maintaining near normal temperatures with dew points fairly high in the upper 60s. Weather radar has remained precipitation free over the past 24 hours. A mid latitude trough will sweep trough the northeast over the next couple of days and push the previously mentioned ridge southeastward and string it out into the Atlantic. As a result, wind will oscillate downwards. While breezes will initially shift further easterly, guidance suggests day time heating will bifurcate the weakening ridge, allowing breezes to back north to northeasterly this weekend. While temperatures will go nowhere with this shift, dew points may briefly drift down into the mid 60s. This along with stable and dry conditions aloft will keep rain chances nil. A broad robust surface high will press eastward into the eastern United States early next week. This should bolster easterly breezes in the Keys as the pressure gradient steepens. The more veered flow may push highs up a degree or two and hold overnight lows in the mid 70s. In addition, surface dew points may be driven up above 70. The faster flow, higher moisture, along with a neutral to veering wind profile should be sufficient for weak shower development. Have introduced dime PoPs for the long range forecast. With all that said, there has been considerable model to model and run to run inconsistency with how this high affects our area. Stay tuned. && .MARINE... Issued at 400 AM EST Fri Nov 21 2025 Weak high pressure along the Atlantic coast and Florida will weaken further as it aligns east/west across Florida. As a result, northeast to easterly breezes will oscillate downwards heading into the weekend. Early next week, a broad surface anticyclone will push eastward into the eastern United States and bolster the local pressure gradient and freshen easterly breezes. Cautions may be required for portions of Keys waters early next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 400 AM EST Fri Nov 21 2025 VFR conditions will prevail during the 06Z TAF period at EYW and MTH. East to northeasterly winds will stay in the 5 to 10 knot range with a near nil chance of showers. Short periods of MVFR CIGs are possible from early morning cloud cover, but any MVFR periods will be short lived. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...11 Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP Data Acquisition.....AJP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest