Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
233 FXUS62 KKEY 111810 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 210 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 ...New AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for the Lower Keys, due to higher water levels around the time of high tide. - A Saharan Air Layer (SAL) will remain over the region for the next several days, keeping slim to no shower and thunder chances for much of the week. - Near to slightly above normal temperatures will continue for much of the week with little relief overnight. Remember to stay hydrated and take breaks if spending time outdoors. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 203 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals with easterly to southeasterly surface winds near 10 knots. Sky conditions will be FEW to occasionally SCT near FL025. Saharan dust in the lower levels of the atmosphere may lead to occasional VIS observations of 8 to 9 SM, but this will not cause any impacts onsite. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 Through mid week a low amplitude mid latitude trough will amplify slightly over the eastern United States. In response, the deep layered ridge will weaken as it gradually shifts southward across Central Florida. Expect surface winds to trend downwards through this stretch, potentially becoming light and variable after mid week as the surface ridge becomes split daily by mainland day time heating. No significant trend in temperatures are expected. Highs will remain near 90 and lows in the lower to mid 80s. Dew points will remain in the mid to upper 70s. Heading into late week, a shortwave trough will help to amplify the eastern United States mid latitude trough a bit more, further weakening the nearby ridging. Meanwhile, all guidance points to a broad lower level trough advancing westward across our area in the early Friday through Saturday time frame. As the trough draws near on Friday, winds may strengthen moderately out of the northeast to east, then shift east to southeast heading into the weekend as the trough moves through and west of our area. In addition, this trough will bring increased confluence, less inhibition, and much higher precipitable water at near 2 inches. For this reason a period or two of at low to mid chance for showers and thunderstorms appear reasonable for this time frame. && .MARINE... Issued at 1040 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 While there are no marine hazard products in place across the Florida Keys local waters, a Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for the Lower Keys due to higher water levels around times of high tide. Anyone on the water should be aware of reduced clearance underneath fixed bridges over the next few days. High pressure across the area combined will maintain light to gentle east to occasionally southeast breezes, and a Saharan Air Layer will help to keep rain and thunder chances very low. The next opportunity for unsettled weather looks to occur somewhere over the Friday and Saturday timeframe. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 85 92 85 91 / 10 10 10 10 Marathon 84 92 84 92 / 10 10 10 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...DP Aviation/Nowcasts....DP Data Acquisition.....DP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and X at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.x.com/nwskeywest