Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
328 FXUS62 KKEY 150942 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 442 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Gentle to moderate breezes this morning will gradually slacken to light to gentle later today continuing through the second half of the weekend. -Temperatures remain slightly below normal again today and Sunday before returning to near normal values early next week. -Dry air will limit shower development through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 442 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025 It has been a quiet overnight across the Florida Keys. GOES East Total Precipitable Water (TPW) products shows estimated PWAT values of mainly 0.8 to 0.9 inches throughout the Florida Keys indicating a dry atmosphere. KBYX radar has not detected any shower activity overnight as a result. The 00z evening sounding also showed vast dry air throughout the entire column with a PWAT value measured of 0.81 inches. This is below the 10th percentile for the date. In addition, GOES East Nighttime Microphysics shows mostly clear skies throughout the Keys with a few clouds between 3500 to 4500 ft AGL. Temperatures along the Island Chain remain cool in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees and dew points are in the lower to mid 60s. Surface high pressure remains over the Southeast U.S. which is helping to promote north to northeast breezes of 10 to 15 knots at marine platforms surrounding the Island Chain. .FORECAST... A quiet week of weather is on tap for the Florida Keys. Surface high pressure currently over the Southeast U.S. will drift south along the Florida Peninsula through the remainder of the weekend. As it does this, the high will weaken and flatten. This will keep dry air entrenched throughout the area and much of the state leading to nil rain chances for the foreseeable future. The exception might be over the Straits where slightly deeper moisture could lend to a shower or two. Gentle to moderate breezes this morning, mainly over the marine area, will slacken as the aforementioned high weakens later today. Daytime highs are expected to be in the upper 70s with overnight lows in the upper 60s. With the light winds and generally clear sky, there is the likelihood for radiational cooling across the Island Chain tonight and Sunday night. Therefore, low temperatures were nudged down some this update. Another high pressure moving across the Southeast U.S. early next week will lead to a strengthening of the pressure gradient across the Keys. This will promote freshening northeast to east breezes for mid to late week. This may also lead to a period of breezy conditions once again for the Island Chain. Moisture remains meager keeping rain chances near nil through the extended. As winds also shift to the east, this will lead to slowly increasing humidity and temperatures with daytime highs creeping back into the lower 80s by late next week. && .MARINE... Issued at 442 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, high pressure centered over the Southeast U.S. will continue to move southward over the weekend. This will promote gentle to moderate breezes this morning. Breezes will continue to slacken later today as the high weakens and flattens. Due to the weak flow, there may be a period of light and variable breezes Sunday through Monday. Another high will traverse across the eastern United States early next week while slowly strengthening. This will allow for freshening northeast to east breezes through mid week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 442 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. Dry air will limit any shower development for today. North to northeast light breezes will become northeasterly later this morning. && .CLIMATE... On 2023, the "No Name Low" resulted in damaging winds, heavy rainfall, and coastal flooding across the Florida Keys on November 15th-16th. The event kicked off in the pre-dawn hours of November 15th when a weak EF-0 tornado moved through the Eden Pines neighborhood of Big Pine Key. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 78 70 78 69 / 0 0 0 0 Marathon 77 68 77 67 / 0 0 0 0 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...MJV Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Data Acquisition.....AP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest