432
FXUS62 KKEY 310915
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
515 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

...New SHORT TERM, MARINE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Peak high tides in the Lower Keys have decreased enough to
  warrant a Coastal FLood Advisory, but a Coastal Flood Warning
  remains in effect for the Middle and Upper Keys. Coastal
  flooding will continue to gradually decrease over the weekend,
  but receding rates will be slow, especially in the Upper Keys.

- Gentle to occasionally moderate northeasterly breezes may see an
  uptick by tonight, but are expected to diminish again by
  tomorrow.

- There is increasing confidence in a wet, stormy period from
  tonight through Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 510 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026
The good news is that peak high tides near 1 AM this morning were
comparatively lower than previous nights, so our high tides are
trending downward for now. For this reason, the Lower Keys have
had their previous Coastal Flood Warning replaced with a Coastal
Flood Advisory. With that being said, high tides in the Middle and
Upper Keys were still on the higher end of the Moderate Flood
category, so the Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect there.

Radar activity increased during this overnight shift as an area of
low level vorticity is moving across our forecast area. The
cyclonic motion is most notable in the showers across the Florida
Straits where some showers are moving north-northwestward while
others are moving southwest. On the north side of the island
chain, showers are moving almost due west. This points to an area
of convergence somewhere in the vicinity of the southeastern GUlf
and Gulfside waters, so additional shower development there is
likely in the coming hours. We have not seen any precipitation
measurements come in on any of the automated observations along
the Keys, but radar estimated rainfall suggests that a few
hundredths of an inch have fallen across our island communities.
The heaviest showers remained over the distant Florida Straits,
but a small cluster of heavier showers is present over the Bayside
waters. Skies aren`t cloudy enough to obstruct radar-derived
products, and it looks like there has been an increase in lower
level moisture across the area that coincides with this area of
low level vorticity. We`ll opt to keep the inherited chance of
showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. There aren`t any
features that particularly indicate that any specific portion of
our forecast area should remain shower free, so expect an on and
off pattern of showers this morning with period of sunshine
peeking between clouds. NOrtheasterly breezes will freshen
slightly throughout today as high pressure over the
eastern/southeastern U.S. strengthens, and the pressure gradient,
especially to our north, tightens. Occasional breezy conditions
may be seen in the Upper Keys by tonight, but these will be short
lived as the pattern continues to evolve.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 510 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026
THere are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the
Florida Keys local waters. From synopsis, an expansive area of
high pressure developing over the eastern U.S. will be able to
support moderate to fresh breezes across the Florida Keys waters
through this weekend, and Small Craft Should Exercise Caution
headlines may be required for all marine zones by tonight. While
the pressure gradient will not be sufficient to keep moderate to
fresh breezes for the entire weekend, northerly swell from the
Atlantic Ocean will keep waves elevated through the early part of
the week. Shower chances will peak Sunday through Monday. Drier
conditions will set up mid week, and breezes are on track to
slacken to light to gentle.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 510 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026
A slight increase in moisture across the area will continue to
support spotty, light showers. As a result, VFR conditions will
occasionally give way to MVFR CIGs throughout the TAF period.
However, these lowered categories will be short lived, so the
prevailing sky cover in the TAFs will remain VFR. Surface winds
near 10 knots out of the northeast will veer to the east. Drier
conditions are expected to move in closer to the end of the TAF
period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in Keys Weather History, in 1999, the daily record
rainfall of 4.05" was recorded in Marathon. Precipitation records
for Marathon date back to 1950.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  84  76  83  76 /  50  50  70  70
Marathon  84  77  83  76 /  40  60  70  70

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Warning until 4 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ076-077.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ078.

GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...DP
Aviation/Nowcasts....DP
Data Acquisition.....DP

Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key

Follow us on Facebook and X at:
www.facebook.com/nwskeywest
www.x.com/nwskeywest