Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
624 FXUS62 KKEY 150232 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1032 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 956 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Another fairly benign evening has been unfolding across the Florida Keys, and adjacent waters. Before sunset, visible satellite imagery showed some fair weather cu speckled across the skies, and our KBYX radar confirmed little to no shower activity during the late afternoon and early evening hours. The 00Z sounding from KEY this evening shows a relatively dry profile compared to recent days. There may be some lingering Saharan Air Layer (SAL) reflected in both the drier low level air in the sounding as well as the Dust RGB from the GOES-19 satellite, but it wasnt enough to muddy our blue skies. This also explains why we see a lack of shower and thunderstorm activity on the radar. The calculated PWAT on our sounding was 1.74, and this is in line with the CIMSS MIMIC Total PWAT that depicts values between 1.55 and 1.85 across the area. 9 PM EDT surface observations showed temperatures in the mid 80s with dew points in the mid 70s, so things arent too uncomfortable tonight. Even with the lack of moisture and significant lifting, we will go ahead and keep PoPs at 20 percent for the overnight time frame. Our radar has picked up on a few showers drifting westward from Andros into the distant eastern Straits, tracking toward the Upper Keys. If they hold together, the 20 PoP seems reasonable. It is entirely possible that these could fizzle out, and tomorrow we will wish that we just lowered PoPs, but this isnt necessarily worth losing sleep over. && .MARINE... Issued at 956 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Small Craft Should Exercise Caution for increasing winds across Hawk Channel and the Florida Straits. From synopsis, strong high pressure centered just east of Bermuda will remain in place for the next several days. This will support moderate to occasionally fresh breezes. The high will drift a bit southeastward over the rest of the weekend, and into early next week, leading to slightly weaker breezes. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 956 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025 VFR conditions with dry weather and southeasterly winds near 10 knots will prevail at both island terminals. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 88 82 88 82 / 30 20 10 20 Marathon 89 82 89 82 / 30 20 20 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...DP Aviation/Nowcasts....DP Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest