Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
441 FXUS62 KKEY 030210 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1010 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1010 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025 Surface analysis places a weak area of low pressure north of the Bahamas, attached to a stationary front draped from the east Coast of Texas eastward to the Florida Peninsula, then extending northward to off the Carolina Coast. This places a well-defined ribbon of moisture directly overhead of the Keys, sampled by satellite-derived total precipitable water products. The 00z evening sounding at KEY sampled a very moist, deep tropospheric moisture profile, with very little mixed-layer inhibition, and ample conditional instability to take advantage of. Although we are currently seeing a lull in the convective cycle, there is little reason to believe that the lack of convection will last for the overnight hours. All available mesoscale numerical weather prediction and statistical guidance supports this evolution, and thus will retain the inherited likely measurable rain chances for the first forecast period. No changes proposed. && .MARINE... Issued at 1010 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025 Although showers and thunderstorms have waned over the past several hours across the Keys marine zones, additional activity is expected to develop later tonight. Any stronger storm will produce locally gusty winds, cloud to surface lightning strikes, and confused seas. From synopsis, a broad surface low along a stationary front stretching from the Gulf eastward to the Florida Peninsula will maintain west to northwest winds across the Keys marine zones tonight. The low and front will remain rooted in place through the next few days, with undulating winds varying between northwest and southwest. Abundant moisture will promote above normal rain and thunder chances through the end of the work week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1010 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025 Despite a convective lull currently in the vicinity of the island terminals, additional showers and storms are expected to form later tonight, likely continuing through much of the TAF period. Have introduced a general period of VCSH, first at EYW, then later at MTH overnight, with specific impacts to visibilities and ceilings to be handled by later TAF amendments. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 91 80 91 80 / 70 70 80 80 Marathon 90 80 90 79 / 60 60 80 80 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...BT Aviation/Nowcasts....BT Data Acquisition.....DP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest