512
FXUS62 KKEY 040826
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
426 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High uncertainty remains regarding the wind forecast. Winds will
  generally be gentle to moderate out of the northeast to east.
  However, large swings both up and down will be possible.

- Well above normal rain and thunder chances will continue over
  the next couple of days.

- Increased cloud cover and convective coverage will help to keep
  temperatures closer to near normal levels over the next few
  days days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026

An expansive surface high over the eastern United States extends
southwards past the Keys and is driving gentle to moderate
northeast to easterly breezes across the Keys this morning. A
nearly cut off trough off aligned just off the Atlantic Coast as
resulted in cyclogenesis that has lifted north off of the mid
Atlantic. The associated lower level trough just abouts makes it
to South Florida and the Keys. At the same time, there is a hint
of some upper level support due to both the mid latitude trough
and a weak southern stream trough aligned near the Yucatan
Peninsula. In addition, deep layered moisture remains very high.
Last evenings sounding indicated a precipitable water of about
2.26 inches, well above seasonal norms. The environment is
essentially uncapped with modest CAPE. Altogether, this is
resulting in a continued wet period for the Keys. Over the past 24
hours, nearly all island locations saw at least a quarter of an
inch of rain with a few spots seeing 2 to 3 inches in a 24 hour
period.

Over the next couple of days the combination of the eastern United
States high and a surface trough over the central Gulf will keep
winds gentle to moderate across the Keys. Deep layered moisture
will remain quite elevated, with inhibition remaining low with
moderate CAPE. As a result shower chances will remain well above
normal with a chance for thunderstorms. Wind surges will continue
to be possible, but probably not as strong as what we saw last
evening. Will maintain likely to categorical PoPs for today
through tomorrow. The continued increased cloud cover and
convective activity should help to keep temperatures down near or
slightly below normal with dew points holding in the lower to mid
70s.

Head into the weekend, mid to upper level ridging building
northeastward across the Gulf will link with ridging driving
eastward across the southeastern States. This will gradually push
in much drier air through the mid and upper levels, and eventually
the lower levels. Meanwhile, the eastern United States surface
high will move southeastward off the Carolina Coast on Friday and
then eastward out into the Atlantic over the following few days.
This should allow easterly breezes to trend downwards slightly.
There is still some uncertainty due to broad troughing expected to
setup across Cuba in this time frame. Expect rain chances to fall
closer to normal with temperatures climbing back above normal. Dew
points should remain in the mid 70s.

Through early next week, deep layered ridging will hang on across
out region with surface ridging setting up across the southeastern
United States. While the fine details imparted by the previously
mentioned weak troughing across Cuba will keep some measure of
uncertainty, in general winds will be light to gentle broadly out
of the southeast. Elevated lower level moisture will continue to
harass the region through this period. Expect slight to low chance
for precipitation and a few thunderstorms will remain possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Expansive high pressure building southeastward into our area will
maintain gentle to moderate northeast to easterly breezes over the
next few days. A very disturbed environment may result in periodic
wind surges into moderate to fresh range. Winds should gradually
trend downwards this weekend, however, uncertainty continues to be
high.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 430 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026

A wet weather pattern remains across the Keys today. As a result,
periods of MVFR and even IFR conditions, along with gusty winds
will be possible. Away from convection, winds will generally be
gentle to moderate out of the east.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...11
Aviation/Nowcasts....11
Data Acquisition.....DR

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