Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
966 FXUS62 KKEY 141741 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 141 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for the Lower and Middle Keys through the late afternoon, with minor saltwater flooding possible. - Expect elevated rain and thunder chances for this evening through Saturday evening. - A swath of Saharan dry air will push across the Keys for the second half of the weekend, lasting through early next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 134 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026 VFR conditions are mainly expected to persist through the TAF period at both EYW and MTH terminals. However, a surge of tropical moisture currently in the vicinity of Andros Island in the Bahamas will continue moving northwestward this evening and overnight. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms appears to be a little bit earlier but still timing to the evening and overnight hours. Though, we still cannot rule out activity outside of that time frame as well. Therefore, VCTS was included in the TAF with 15/00z for EYW and 15/01z for MTH. Any showers and storms will be capable of reducing CIGs with the potential for VIS to MVFR as well. There is also the low risk/probability for IFR. In addition, gusty winds are possible along with cloud to ground lightning strikes. Otherwise, near surface winds will remain mostly east to southeast through the period with another period of northeast to east late this afternoon into this evening. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026 Surface wind and pressure analysis places an expansive high pressure system centered in the vicinity of the Azores in the North Atlantic, which continues to strengthen and build westward. The axis of the ridge is bisecting the Florida Space Coast. Meanwhile, lower tropospheric vorticity analysis places an inverted trough in the vicinity of eastern Cuba and the island of Hispaniola. Finally, satellite-derived layer- and atmospheric- integrated precipitable water products are highlighting a postively-tilted, discernible moisture surge extending from Andros Island northeastward to the central Bahamas. Locally, earlier convection associated with a broken cloud line over portions of the Lower Keys has since waned, with local KBYX Doppler radar now only detecting isolated showers across the Keys marine zones. Land- based surface observations are sampling temperatures in the balmy mid 80s at this early Friday morning hour. Overall, with a noticeable increase in forcing and steering flow, the Florida Keys will quickly move from a mesoscale regime to a synoptic-scale forced regime later today through the weekend. The aforementioned moisture surge, coincident with the inverted trough to its southwest, will progress westward today. Meanwhile, at the surface, the high pressure system will continue to build westward towards the Florida Peninsula, supporting freshening east to southeast breezes. Composting these features will result in a wetter and more thundery pattern beginning later this afternoon, continuing through at least Saturday morning. Forecast soundings do indicate a bit of inhibition to overcome, which will continued to be monitored, as it may limit more widespread and stronger thunderstorms across the Keys for these periods. Thereafter, there is high confidence that a strong Saharan dust layer (a bit unusual for this late in August) will propagate westward towards the Keys by sometime late Saturday afternoon or early Sunday evening. While this will tend to shut down any shower and thunderstorm activity thereafter for several days, we will need to monitor the leading edge of this dust plume. The leading edge is analogous to a classic Mid-west dry line, with a discernible line of deep convective thunderstorms often occurring as the plume pushes through the Keys. In terms of the tropics, although the National Hurricane Center is monitoring two possible areas in the Main Development Region of the Tropical Atlantic, chances for development of both systems continues to wane. Regardless of development, neither system is expected to provide impacts to the Keys at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 1033 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026 A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for the Lower and Middle Keys through late afternoon. From synopsis, high pressure in the central North Atlantic will strengthen and build westward for the next several days. With the associated ridge axis located north of the Florida Keys, this will support gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes for the marine zones through Sunday night. A weak frontal boundary will stall over the Florida Peninsula for early next week. This will disrupt the ridge`s influence on the Keys coastal waters. Breezes will respond, becoming light to gentle. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 91 81 91 82 / 20 50 40 10 Marathon 89 82 89 83 / 30 50 40 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...MJV Aviation/Nowcasts....MJV Data Acquisition.....MJV Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and X at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.x.com/nwskeywest