Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
571 FXUS62 KKEY 020837 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 437 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Mainly light to gentle and often variable breezes are expected to persist throughout the Florida Keys coastal waters over the next couple of days. - Rain and thunder chances will trend upwards over the next couple of days, peaking around Wednesday. - After slightly above normal temperatures today, temperatures should trend downwards to near normal. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1256 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026 An upper mid latitude trough stretches from the far northwestern Atlantic and the northeastern United States. The southern extend of this trough is contributing to lower level troughing across the southeast and nearby Atlantic and is keeping the surface to lower level ridge across our region. despite zonal flow overhead and an upper level ridge across Cuba and the northwestern Caribbean Sea, deep layered moisture is quite high. Last evenings sounding indicated a precipitable water of 2.28 inches, just slightly below the max for the day. However, CAPE was modest and there was a small amount of low level inhibition. After several rounds of showers and thunderstorms earlier in the day and evening, they have run their course and activity has virtually dissipated across the Keys area. A weak pressure gradient will persist today, leading to winds being light and variable. The combination of a small high developing over the Gulf of America and day time heating over the mainland should force winds northwesterly for most island locations. Cloud line convection will again be possible and mainland activity will have a fair chance of affecting the Upper Keys. The weak flow and sufficient sunshine will push temperatures up to slightly below normal with dew points remaining in the mid 70s. Through the remainder of the week, rain and thunder chances will trend upwards to well above normal. This is due to the swath of deep moisture remaining across our area and a frontal boundary steadily pushing southward towards the Keys. Rain chances will likely peak mid week as the boundary reaches South Florida and the Keys and the tail end of the lower level trough scraps by our area. In addition, some upper level diffluence may be present at the same time, further supporting convective activity. The combination of increased cloud cover and convective activity should keep temperatures near normal. Heading into the weekend, the surface boundary will likely push past the Keys as robust high pressure builds across the eastern United States and surface troughing lifts out along the Atlantic Coast. Dew points and rain chances should trend downwards, but how far depends how far the surface high is able to press across our area. Adding to the uncertainty will be deep layered moisture remaining quite high and possible upper level troughing moving into Florida. && .MARINE... Issued at 1256 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026 A surface low will migrate eastward off of the southeast Atlantic coast over the next few days. This will keep a weak and narrow surface ridge across the Bahamas and the Keys, resulting in light and variable breezes on Keys waters. Expect well above normal shower chances with isolated to scattered thunderstorms due to considerable deep moisture. From mid week and beyond, broad high pressure will build eastward off of the eastern United States and bring about modest freshening northeast to easterly breezes and rain chances slipping back to seasonal norms by the weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1256 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals today. With that said, there will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms due to considerable moisture. Surface winds will be light and variable. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...11 Aviation/Nowcasts....11 Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest