Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
646 FXUS62 KKEY 140229 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1029 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1030 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Earlier afternoon widely scattered shower and isolated thunderstorm quickly dissipated during the early evening hours, as dry air continues to filter in from the east, clearly depicted in CIMSS MIMIC total precipitable water products. The 00z evening sounding at KEY sampled at least some evidence of Saharan dust, with a distinct spoke of very dry air within the 625-675 isobaric layer. The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) was very well-depicted in the upstream MFL evening sounding, with extremely low moisture between 550-750 mb. KBYX meteorological echo returns at this late evening hour are limited to remnant convection off the west coast of Cuba, as well as light showers west of Andros Island slowly pushing closer to our easternmost Straits coastal zones. Temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s across the Island Chain, with mostly clear skies being detected by available nighttime satellite products. Overnight, with very limited moisture to work with, as well as a bit of low-level inhibition, shower and thunderstorm coverage is expected to be minimal, likely only forming off surface moisture fluxes in the moderate to fresh east to southeast flow over very warm surface ocean temperatures. Slight rain chances are advertised. The freshened flow should also limit temperatures from dropping more than another degree or so for most communities, outside of those that may see a brief light shower. No changes proposed to the inherited afternoon forecast package. && .MARINE... Issued at 1030 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines are posted for all Florida Keys coastal marine zones except the Florida Bay, with east to southeast breezes sustained 15 and 20 knots at times overnight. From synopsis, strong high pressure centered just east of Bermuda will remain in place for the next few days. This will support moderate to occasionally fresh breezes through Saturday. The high will get nudged to the southeast over the weekend into early next week, leading to modestly slackening breezes. Near- normal rain and thunder chances are expected through Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through the TAF period, with only a brief possible shower expected. Near- surface winds will remain out of the east to southeast sustained at 10 to 13 knots, with occasional gusts to near 20 knots, especially before sunrise. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 88 82 88 82 / 50 20 30 30 Marathon 89 81 89 82 / 50 20 30 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...BT Aviation/Nowcasts....BT Data Acquisition.....DP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest