Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
037 FXUS62 KKEY 141740 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 140 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 133 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. Tonight, a period of shower activity could potentially impact both terminals, but for the time being, only VCSH is included. If direct impacts are expected, TEMPOs will be added. Near surface winds will be light and variable through tonight. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1125 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Shower activity is currently waning over the CWA with only a cluster of light showers in the deep Gulf waters, that is moving southwesterly. Upper-level clouds fill most of the area seen on GOES-19 Satelitte imagery. Even with mostly cloudy skies, temperatures have still been able to warm up this morning now in the mid 80s. Along the Reef, winds are light and variable. This morning`s 12z KKEY sounding calculated an in-house waterspout index of 50% so although none have been reported as of yet, there is a chance those could be seen later this afternoon. Later this afternoon, CAMs suggests a majority of shower and thunderstorm activity will come from spillage off the mainland effecting the Upper Keys, but with ample moisture and CAPE, the CWA as a whole cannot be ruled out for the occasional thunderstorm, which would bring gusty winds and cloud- to-ground lightning strikes. Outside of convection, winds are expected to stay light and variable through tonight. No changes were necessary to the current forecast package. && .FORECAST... Issued at 430 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Today through Wednesday, the focus will mainly be on the 30% area for tropical development within the next 7 days that the NHC- National Hurricane Center has highlighted across the northern Gulf. At most, a weak area of low pressure is expected to continue meandering slowly southward from off the Georgia coastline and then retrograde back to the west through mid week. As a result, bouts of showers and thunderstorms are expected to be initiated each day as the system slowly moves through the area. Most of the activity the Keys could see may initially form on the mainland and then drift southward through the Keys. Any storms will be capable of producing strong gusty winds, locally heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning. The forecast was split for the today period for the Upper Keys (70%) and then the Middle and Lower Keys (50%). Confidence remains higher in the Upper Keys being the more favorable region for showers and thunderstorms today as storms roll off the mainland. As we progress into tonight, the chance for rain goes up to about the same everywhere with 70% for the Island Chain. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has the Keys highlighted in a marginal risk (Level 1 out of 4) for the today through Tuesday time period. A more typical summer time pattern returns for the second half of the week and into the weekend. High pressure over the Atlantic builds into Florida bringing a return to the east to southeasterlies and moisture undulations around the western periphery of the high. As a result, expect decreasing rain chances with 40% for Wednesday night and Thursday before rain chances return to around normal for the remainder of the extended which is near 30%. Also, it will for sure be summer with highs in the lower 90s and overnight lows in the lower 80s. Heat index values are expected to range from 102-107 degrees through this period which is just under Heat Advisory criteria. We will continue to monitor. && .MARINE... Issued at 1125 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect in the Florida Keys. From synopsis, weak low pressure tries to develop in the vicinity of Florida heading through the first half of the week. Initially, the Keys will be on the southern fringe in a col region resulting in mainly variable breezes through tonight. As the weak low pressure area shifts to the west and high pressure builds in behind, breezes will freshen becoming southeast to south at first, before becoming east to southeast for mid to late week. Also, expect increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms through the middle part of the week. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...AP Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Data Acquisition.....AP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest