365
FXUS62 KKEY 151849
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
249 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

...New AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Drier air draped across the Florida Keys will allow for only
 slight rain chances, and lower dew points to prevail for the next
 few days.

-A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for all of the Florida
 Keys.

-Tropical Storm Lorenzo is tracking north northeastward through
 the central Atlantic, and will pose no threat to the Keys.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 244 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025
VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals coupled with
dry weather and only FEW clouds near FL030. Northeasterly surface
winds near 10 knots will continue to gust to 15 to 20 knots, but
these gusts will diminish around sunset.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1113 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025
It has been an absolutely stunning morning along the Florida Keys
as high pressure is sliding into the southeastern U.S.! GOES-19
Visible Satellite shoes a field of fair weather cumulus over our
waters, but the island chain itself remains virtually cloud
free. Automated obs show current temperatures in the low to mid
80s coupled with dew points near 70F, and northeasterly breezes of
10 to 15 mph. These are dew points associated with air that feels
generally more comfortable than our summertime air, so we`ll keep
this morning update short and let everyone enjoy it.

The 12Z KKEY sounding showed a robust amount of dry air in the
vertical profile, and a calculated PWAT of 1.37". CIMSS MIMIC PWAT
confirms this with widespread values between 1.3" and 1.7". Our
KBYX radar remains mostly shower-free with the exception of an
isolated shower drifting southward through the Florida Straits.
This shower looks like it developed along the moisture gradient
that has been across the Florida Straits lately, so this drier air
may be acting as a pseudo dryline. All in all, the forecast is
unfolding as expected, and no updates are needed at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1113 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025
There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the
Florida Keys local waters. From synopsis, high pressure is
sinking into the southeastern U.S. today, and will continue to
allow our moderate breezes to gradually slacken. However, Small
Craft Exercise Caution headlines are still in place for the
Florida Straits as breezes are slackening slower than anticipated.
Expect a tighter pressure gradient to develop tomorrow night to
Friday, and fresh breezes are possible during the first half of
the weekend. Drier air pushing south from the eastern CONUS will
keep shower coverage at isolated to scattered.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  76  85  76  86 /  10  10  30  30
Marathon  75  84  76  84 /  10  20  30  20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...DP
Aviation/Nowcasts....DP
Data Acquisition.....DP

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