329
FXUS62 KKEY 291914
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
314 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Major coastal flooding will continue across the Keys during the
  next several tidal cycles. Coastal flooding will gradually
  decrease over the weekend, but receding rates may be slow,
  especially in the Upper Keys.

- Gentle to moderate northeasterly breezes will become light to
  gentle at times through the end of the week with only a slight
  chance (20%) of rain until the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026
Weather conditions across the Florida Keys were relatively tame
this Thursday morning. Showers stayed offshore over the Florida
Straits, and despite instability in the environment, convection
struggled to form near the island chain. A glance towards Advected
Layer PWAT helped illustrate the first problem, continuous
resupply of drier air above 700 mb. Very few showers were able to
develop to heights above 10 kft due to this dry layer. In
addition, the pressure gradient is not tightly focused across the
Keys. Breezes along the Keys slackened to gentle to moderate
northeasterlies over the past day, and are expected to prevail
through the evening hours. The current pattern does not suggest
active weather across the island chain tonight, and thus we are
going with seasonable, 20%, PoPs for tonight. Temperatures are
slightly above normal, and dew points are expected to remain in
the mid 70s. The primary hazard will be the Coastal Flood Warning
out for the Florida Keys. Another night of peak tide heights
approximately 2.0 to 2.5 feet above mean high tides is expected
tonight. Remember to take precautions for property in low lying
areas, avoid flooded roadways when possible, and plan for the peak
tide heights during the overnight hours.

There is increasing confidence in an active weather day on Sunday.
A combination of low level wind speed convergence, slight
directional convergence, low level moisture convergence, and
slight upper level divergence are shown to phase together to
support shower and thunderstorm development. Synoptically, what
exactly is happening? A broad high pressure system is forecast to
build over the eastern United States early this weekend. By
Sunday, the high may be over the DelMarVa to New England region of
the country, and thus support a stronger pressure gradient across
southern Florida. Meanwhile, a plume of moisture from the remnants
of Tropical Storm Vance will be moving across the northeastern
Gulf. An increase in lift due to the low level speed convergence
and the elevated amount of moisture would allow for another pulse
of showers and thunderstorms. The details for this event are not
certain, and the chance of showers and thunderstorms is likely to
change.

Weather next week is more uncertain. Breezes are likely to
oscillate between light to gentle and gentle to moderate across
the Keys. Shower chances are likely to stabilize around near
normal chances, about 20 percent. There is the possibility of a
frontal boundary passing through the Keys late next week. Check
back later, because the forecast is liable to change!

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026
No watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for the waters
surrounding the Florida Keys. A Coastal Flood Warning remains in
effect for the island chain, but mariners should be aware of
reduced clearance under fixed bridges due to the higher than
normal high tides.

From synopsis: gentle to moderate northeasterly breezes will
prevail across the Florida Keys through the first half of the
weekend. By late Saturday, a high pressure system developing over
the eastern United States will be able to build and set up north
of the Carolinas. Breezes may be able to freshen to moderate to
fresh over the northern waters of the Florida Keys. Northerly swell
over the easternmost waters will be a concern for the second half
of the weekend. Shower chances are also expected to peak Saturday
night through Sunday night. Currently, the forecast does not
suggest marine hazards will be required for the Keys Coastal
Waters.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026
VFR conditions will prevail at EYW and MTH. Occasional showers
will be able to wax and wane near the terminals, but not at high
enough frequency to require VCSH or a TEMPO. Short lived periods
of MVFR CIGs are possible near SHRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in Keys Weather History, in 1892, the daily record low
temperature of 59F was recorded in Key West. This is also tied
for the coldest temperature ever recorded in October, and is the
earliest fall date on which a temperature below 60F has been
recorded in Key West. Temperature records for Key West date back
to 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  77  85  77  85 /  20  20  30  30
Marathon  77  85  77  86 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Warning until 5 AM EDT Friday for FLZ076>078.

GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...AJP
Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP
Data Acquisition.....BT

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