Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
267 FXUS62 KKEY 150254 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1054 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for the Lower Keys. Minor saltwater flooding low elevation areas is likely, and boaters can expect less clearance under fixed bridges. - Heat will be the primary weather concern through the rest of the week, as indices will approach the mid to upper 100s during the afternoons. - A Saharan Air Layer will linger across the Keys this week, keeping rain and thunder chances slight at best. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1039 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026 The 00z evening sounding at KEY sampled a modified Saharan air layer draped across the Florida Keys. Features included a bit of surface-based inhibition, as well as substantial dry air in the 950-600 mb isobaric layer, topped by a moist layer between 15-20 kft. Local Doppler radar imagery is detecting a residual cluster of showers and thunderstorms pushing into eastern Gulf waters off southwestern Florida. Outside of this activity, there are very little meteorological echo returns at this late evening hour across the CWA. Temperatures remain quite warm, with land-based surface observations generally in the mid 80s across the Island Chain. Further convective development along the outflow boundaries from the earlier South Florida convection has been limited, and there is little reason to believe that will change overnight. However, these outflows, along with a meso high developing over the Mainland, will support winds gradually briefly clocking around to the northeast to east overnight and freshening. Temperatures will remain quasi-steady for the balance of the overnight hours, flirting with record warm minimums yet again. A persistence forecast remains prudent, with no changes proposed to the inherited forecast package. && .MARINE... Issued at 1039 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026 A Coast Flood Statement remains in effect for the Lower Keys. Mariners should be aware of less clearance under fixed bridges during times of higher tides, which will occur in the late morning hours of Wednesday. From synopsis, elongated high pressure extending from the central North Atlantic westward to the Florida Peninsula will support support gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes through the rest of the week for the Keys coastal waters. Breezes will tend to peak in the evening and overnight hours, before modestly lulling in the late morning and afternoon periods. A large area of Saharan dust will remain in place across the Florida Keys marine zones for the next several days, acting to limit rain and thunder chances. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1039 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through the TAF period. Near-surface winds out of the northeast to east overnight at near 10 knots will veer back to the east to southeast in the late morning hours Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 90 84 90 84 / 0 0 10 10 Marathon 90 84 90 84 / 0 0 10 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...BT Aviation/Nowcasts....BT Data Acquisition.....LIW/DM Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and X at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.x.com/nwskeywest