198
FXUS62 KKEY 300213
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1013 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Major coastal flooding is expected again overnight, and a
  Coastal Flood Warning is in effect for all of the Florida Keys.
  Coastal flooding will gradually decrease over the weekend, but
  receding rates may be slow, especially in the Upper Keys.

- Gentle to moderate northeasterly breezes will become light to
  gentle at times through the end of the week with only a slight
  chance (20%) of rain until the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1012 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026
An upper-level composite analysis this evening revealed a ridge
extending from the Gulf basin northward into the central United
States, while a mean trough was analyzed from the Bahamas
northward over the adjacent subtropical Atlantic. Data from the
Key West evening radiosonde balloon indicated a moist and unstably
stratified atmosphere with some convective inhibition energy at
low altitudes. Very dry air was present above 700mb. Latest Key
West Doppler radar base reflectivity animations show scattered
moderate to heavy showers moving southwestward near 10 knots
mainly over the southeastern Gulf zones with isolated cells south
of the Florida Reef tract. Skies are mostly clear over most Keys
island communities, with current air temperatures near 80F and
dewpoint temperatures in the mid 70s. Winds were blowing out of
the northeast near 10 mph.

Water levels are on the rise once again, and major saltwater
flooding is likely in low-lying areas. Low-lying streets, lots,
and some properties will be inundated between late evening and
early Friday morning. As such, a Coastal Flood Warning remains in
effect.
&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1012 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026
No watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for Florida Keys
coastal waters zones. Gentle to moderate northeasterly breezes
will prevail across the Florida Keys through the first half of the
weekend. By late Saturday, a high pressure system developing over
the eastern United States will be able to build and set up north
of the Carolinas. Breezes may be able to freshen to moderate to
fresh over the northern waters of the Florida Keys. Northerly
swell over the easternmost waters will be a concern for the second
half of the weekend. Shower chances are also expected to peak
Saturday night through Sunday night. Currently, the forecast does
not suggest marine hazards will be required for the Keys Coastal
Waters.
&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1012 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026
Through 30/24Z, prevailing VFR conditions are expected at both EYW
and MTH.
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Warning until 5 AM EDT Friday for FLZ076>078.

GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...Kasper
Aviation/Nowcasts....Kasper
Data Acquisition.....AP

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