Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
098 FXUS62 KKEY 161910 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 310 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 302 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF peiod, but occasional instances of MVFR CIGs are possible due to clouds near FL025. Drier weather will remain in the beginning of the 18Z TAF period, but showers are expected to return to the vicinity of both terminals during the overnight hours. This could also lead to infrequent bouts of MVFR conditions. For now, we are leaning near 02Z for onset time of VCSH. Surface winds will remain out of the southeast near 10 knots. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 1006 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Weather conditions have been a little mixed this morning, depending on where along the island chain you are located. Our KBYX radar has been tracking quite a bit of shower activity, particularly around the Middle and Upper Keys. A conveyor belt of showers and thunderstorms moving from the Distant Straits, across the Middle and Upper Keys, and approaching the Florida peninsula has been persisting over the past few hours with almost no indication of diminishing anytime soon. The Alligator Reef WeatherFlow station reported a wind gust of 29 knots when a cell moved overhead just before 9 AM EDT. Naturally, we do not have any automated surface observations that have reported rainfall amounts, but radar derived estimates are showing storm total accumulations of approximately a few tenths of an inch to three quarters of an inch of rainfall has fallen in the Middle and Upper Keys. There are a couple of pockets of rainfall estimates closer to an inch, but these may have been displaced from island communities. GOES-19 lightning detection has detected a mix of isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the area as well, but not every shower has developed into a thunderstorm. This just means it will continue to be difficult to pick which cells will grow into thunderstorms, and which ones will continue to just be nuisance showers. The 12Z sounding from this morning does show a very wet profile with a calculated PWAT value of 2.16" coming in just below the daily max of 2.21". Below 500 mb, ample moisture, a lack on inhibition, and a veering wind profile favor an environment that can support continued activity for now, so we will go ahead an maintain the 60 percent PoPs inherited form the overnight shift, but it may be a few more hours before the radar reflects these elevated PoPs. The forecast is unfolding as expected, so no updates or changes are needed at this time. Expect high temperatures today in the upper 80s with southeast wind 10 to 15 mph, and continued showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Issued at 1006 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to persist across the Florida Keys local waters today with coverage gradually increasing later this evening. Stronger pockets of storms will be capable of producing locally gusty and erratic winds, suddenly building and confused seas, and reduced visibility from blinding downpours. From synopsis, an area of low pressure will continue to slide westward along the northern Gulf coast. Meanwhile, a strong area of high pressure will build westward across the North Atlantic towards the Florida Peninsula, supporting freshening east to southeast breezes over the next several days. As a second, weak area of high pressure builds over the eastern Gulf for the second half of the weekend, easterly breezes will slacken, becoming light to gentle. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...DP Aviation/Nowcasts....DP Data Acquisition.....DP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest