Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
811 FXUS62 KKEY 261859 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 259 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 The reverse cloud line continues to struggle across the Florida Keys. Water vapor imagery suggests there are lower heights across the Keys compared to yesterday at this time, but large scale subsidence and potentially shear in the upper levels continue to hamper an otherwise favorable vertical moisture profile. Extreme South Florida, central and eastern Cuba, and Andros also seem to be having convective challenges. Like yesterday, there may be an opportunity late this afternoon for another cycle or two of moist congestus. .FORECAST... Not much change through the next 24 hours across the Florida Keys with a low-level ridge axis near or just to the south of the Florida Keys. Given the poor performance of the cloud line today, we highlight slight rain/thunder chances for overnight and Thursday, noting steering flow is less favorable on Thursday. The low- level ridge axis will lift northward Thursday night and Friday. Meanwhile, our overnight crew successfully identified the return of mid-level ridging which will linger through Friday night. Given the convective challenges noted in the first paragraph, it may already be here. Eventually, the return of the east-southeasterlies will usher in a more normal summertime pattern featuring moisture undulations in the easterlies and very few large scale synoptic features of interest. Forecast soundings indicate a SAL plume may be on our doorstep by next Tuesday night or Wednesday. Until then, much of the week beyond Saturday features 40% rain/thunder chances, near to above normal temperatures, and gentle to moderate east-southeasterlies. && .MARINE... Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories currently in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. A weak ridge axis will extend westward from the western Atlantic across the Straits of Florida tonight through Thursday morning, with light to gentle southwest to west breezes prevailing over the Keys waters. Breezes may become variable at times during this period. The ridge will shift back northward Thursday afternoon through Friday, allowing light southeast breezes to resume. Building high pressure over the western Atlantic during the weekend will bring gentle to moderate easterly breezes across the Keys waters. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 VFR and light southwest to west breezes will prevail at the EYW and MTH terminals this evening. Still may be an opportunity for the cloud line to wax and wane through 21-22Z. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 2020, a daily record warm low temperature of 86F was measured in Key West. This measurement tied for the warmest low temperature ever recorded in June. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1873. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 82 90 82 91 / 10 20 20 30 Marathon 82 91 82 91 / 20 20 20 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...CLR Aviation/Nowcasts....11 Data Acquisition.....11 Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest