Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
573 FXUS62 KKEY 080221 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1021 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1030 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025 Atlantic ridging stretching westward through the far southeastern United States, along with weak troughing just south of the Keys is resulting in gentle to moderate northeast to easterly breezes across the Keys and most surrounding waters. Moisture remains quite elevated, likely partly due to the troughing. With that said, moisture has been elevated across our area for quite some time. This evenings sounding indicated 2.3 inches of precipitable water with near saturation below 500 mb. Inhibition was nearly non existent with more than sufficient CAPE to support convective activity. Recent radar imagery indicates numerous showers across a large swath of the forecast area. However, thunderstorm activity has been limited. No substantial shifts are expected to the local weather pattern through the overnight period. The ridge to our north will pull further out into the Atlantic overnight, but the pressure gradient will remain supported by a strong high spreading down the eastern United States. The broad and weak surface trough will remain just to our south and deep layered moisture will remain very high. Consequently, rain chances will be substantially higher than normal. Have already pushed PoPs up to high likelihood. Surface winds will remain gentle to moderate out of the northeast to east overnight. Expect overnight lows to range in the mid to upper 70s with dew points remaining in the mid 70s. King tide will continue to impact all of the Florida Keys, mostly during high tide. This along episodes of heavy rain will likely exacerbate flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas. A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for all Florida Keys and Warnings or Flood Statements/Warnings cannot be ruled out. Motorists should assume that any standing water is at least brackish and likely ocean water. && .MARINE... Issued at 1030 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025 The combination of Atlantic ridging to our north and weak troughing near and south of our area is contributing to moderate northeast to easterly breezes across most Keys waters. The position of the troughing will result in weaker breezes across the Florida Straits. This weather pattern will continue the well above average convective coverage overnight. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025 A wet weather pattern will linger across the Keys area overnight. As a result, spells of sub VFR conditions are likely. Surface winds will be gentle to moderate out of the northeast to east. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory for FLZ076>078. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...11 Aviation/Nowcasts....11 Data Acquisition.....AJP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest