Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
826 FXUS62 KKEY 111442 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1042 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for the Lower Keys, due to higher water levels around the time of high tide. - A Saharan Air Layer (SAL) will remain over the region for the next several days, keeping slim to no shower and thunder chances for much of the week. - Near to slightly above normal temperatures will continue for much of the week with not much relief overnight. Remember to stay hydrated and take breaks if spending time outdoors. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1040 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 Generally unremarkable weather is in place across the Florida Keys this morning due to high pressure centered somewhere over the northern Florida/Big Bend area. ONly a handful of showers are drifting across the forecast area, a couple of them over the FLorida Straits while the others are in the Southeastern Gulf waters. Even though the overall environment isn`t conducive to much activity, it is still Summer in Florida and a couple of stray showers are almost always possible. The moisture available to the atmosphere is confined to the lowest levels with the 12Z KKEY sounding from this morning showing a low level RH value of 80% while the mid level RH was only 25%. Satellite-derived dust detection highlights a highly expansive swath of Saharan Air Layer (SAL) across the our area, so this should help to keep our skies mostly sunny and the vertical profile dry. We`ll go ahead and maintain very low rain chances, between zero and 10%, due to the occasional light shower trekking across the local waters. Current temperatures in the upper 80s will be able to climb a few more degrees as we head into the afternoon, but the "silver lining" is the dew points currently in the mid 70s. If dew points were just a couple of degrees higher, the air would feel gross. HOwever, this isn`t to diminish the heat index values that are pushing the 100F mark already, as maximum heat indices this afternoon will likely be around the lower to mid 100s. Those sensitive to the heat should keep this in mind if spending time outside, and consider taking breaks in air conditioning while remaining hydrated. A Coast Flood Statement remains in effect for the Lower Keys due to higher water levels around the time of high tide. Ponding water may appear over low lying lots and roadways, and motorists should remember that any standing water likely contains saltwater. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 Through mid week a low amplitude mid latitude trough will amplify slightly over the eastern United States. In response, the deep layered ridge will weaken as it gradually shifts southward across Central Florida. Expect surface winds to trend downwards through this stretch, potentially becoming light and variable after mid week as the surface ridge becomes split daily by mainland day time heating. No significant trend in temperatures are expected. Highs will remain near 90 and lows in the lower to mid 80s. Dew points will remain in the mid to upper 70s. Heading into late week, a shortwave trough will help to amplify the eastern United States mid latitude trough a bit more, further weakening the nearby ridging. Meanwhile, all guidance points to a broad lower level trough advancing westward across our area in the early Friday through Saturday time frame. As the trough draws near on Friday, winds may strengthen moderately out of the northeast to east, then shift east to southeast heading into the weekend as the trough moves through and west of our area. In addition, this trough will bring increased confluence, less inhibition, and much higher precipitable water at near 2 inches. For this reason a period or two of at low to mid chance for showers and thunderstorms appear reasonable for this time frame. && .MARINE... Issued at 1040 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 While there are no marine hazard products in place across the Florida Keys local waters, a Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for the Lower Keys due to higher water levels around times of high tide. Anyone on the water should be aware of reduced clearance underneath fixed bridges over the next few days. High pressure across the area combined will maintain light to gentle east to occasionally southeast breezes, and a Saharan Air Layer will help to keep rain and thunder chances very low. The next opportunity for unsettled weather looks to occur somewhere over the Friday and Saturday timeframe. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 1040 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with very low, nearly zero, rain and thunder chances. Occasional MVFR observations are possible due to the cloud field based near FL020, but no impacts at either terminal are expected. Saharan dust in the lower levels may reduce visibility to 8 to 9 SM at times, but VIS will remain greater than 6 SM. Surface winds will remain out of the east to southeast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 92 85 92 85 / 10 10 10 10 Marathon 91 84 92 84 / 10 10 10 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...DP Aviation/Nowcasts....DP Data Acquisition.....DP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and X at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.x.com/nwskeywest