917
FXUS62 KKEY 070209
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1009 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near to below normal rain chances are expected through Monday.

- Gentle to moderate northeast to easterly breezes are expected
  over the next few days.

- Rain chances will trend upward by Tuesday or Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 928 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026
Water vapor imagery highlights a sharp upper-level ridge over the
west-central Gulf of America, west of an upper-level trough with
its axis near the Bahama Banks. Regional IR satellite imagery
suggest a broad expanse of unsettled weather from near Jamaica to
the southeastern Bahamas. CIMMS mean-layer lower tropospheric
analyses place an inverted trough in the easterlies near this
unsettled weather, no doubt the convection enjoys the
southeastern flank of the previously mentioned upper level trough.
Around the Keys, we continue to track isolated short-lived
showers across the coastal waters. Even this amount of coverage is
rather remarkable given the stable and dry profile sampled by the
00Z KKEY RAOB. This time of year, any bit of wind and the
inherent BL moisture flux tends to overcome the thermal stability.
The inherited forecast calls for 30% chances for
showers/thunderstorms overnight, which is slightly above the MOS
consensus. Overnight lows will fall to near 80, very near
equilibrium with the nearshore SSTs. No changes are needed or
planned.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 928 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026
There are no watches, warnings, or advisories currently in effect
for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. A broad high centered
just off the southeast Atlantic Coast will maintain gentle to
moderate easterly breezes across the Keys for the next couple of
days. The high will push out into the Atlantic early next week.
However, the combination of a broad trough riding westward across
the northwestern Caribbean Sea and a stalled inverted trough over
the Bahamas will keep easterly breezes mostly gentle through this
period. Heading into mid week, all of the previously mentioned
troughing will slide westward into the Yucatan. Heading into mid
week there is the potential for freshening southeasterly breezes.
Lower level moisture should also rise, pushing up shower and
thunder chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 928 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026
VFR and gentle easterly breezes will prevail at the EYW and MTH
terminals overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  80  89  81  89 /  40  20  20  20
Marathon  79  87  80  87 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...CLR
Aviation/Nowcasts....CLR
Data Acquisition.....MJV

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