Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
969 FXUS62 KKEY 040851 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 451 AM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - High moisture content across the region will support daily chances for showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. - Temperatures will be seasonably warm, with highs near 90, and lows in the lower 80s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 451 AM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026 Scattered showers across the Florida Keys waters have continued to wax and wane through the overnight into this morning. While a majority of the showers have remained over the water, a few places in the Middle and Upper Keys have seen some light showers, a rain gauge report on Duck Key reported 01.0 inches of rain. MIMIC Precipitable Water depicts very moist air is still in our area with the easternmost waters having around 2.3 inches which checks out with the current showers are mostly in the eastern waters. For today shower activity is expected to continue popping up in various locations throughout the Keys therefore went with 40% PoPs for the day. As a weak North Atlantic high still is in control breezes will be similar to what we`ve been seeing with southeast to southerly and light to gentle. Late this week into early next week, a long wave trough is expected to push out into the Atlantic suppressing the ridge resulting in winds to continuing to be light to gentle and deep tropical moisture to continuing flowing into our area. For now, the highest chances for rain are forecast for Sunday and Sunday night at 50% PoPs. Thereafter 40% is expected for a majority of the week. Stay tuned for any updates on timing. && .MARINE... Issued at 451 AM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, the western periphery of a weak North Atlantic high will remain in loose control of the Keys coastal waters for the next few days. Light to gentle, occasionally moderate, east to southeast breezes overnight through morning will become light and variable at times during the afternoon and evenings. In addition, the overall flow will keep low-level moisture in place across the region, with seasonally normal rain and thunder chances. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 451 AM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. As moisture lingers showers and thunderstorms are possible late morning therefore VCSH is included at both terminals after 16z. Near surface winds will be southeasterly at 5 to 10 knots. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...AP Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Data Acquisition.....AP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and X at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.x.com/nwskeywest