792
FXUS62 KKEY 141526
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1126 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1125 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025
Shower activity is currently waning over the CWA with only a
cluster of light showers in the deep Gulf waters, that is moving
southwesterly. Upper-level clouds fill most of the area seen on
GOES-19 Satelitte imagery. Even with mostly cloudy skies,
temperatures have still been able to warm up this morning now in
the mid 80s. Along the Reef, winds are light and variable. This
morning`s 12z KKEY sounding calculated an in-house waterspout
index of 50% so although none have been reported as of yet, there
is a chance those could be seen later this afternoon. Later this
afternoon, CAMs suggests a majority of shower and thunderstorm
activity will come from spillage off the mainland effecting the
Upper Keys, but with ample moisture and CAPE, the CWA as a whole
cannot be ruled out for the occasional thunderstorm, which would
bring gusty winds and cloud- to-ground lightning strikes. Outside
of convection, winds are expected to stay light and variable
through tonight. No changes were necessary to the current forecast
package.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1125 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025
No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect in the
Florida Keys. From synopsis, weak low pressure tries to develop
in the vicinity of Florida heading through the first half of the
week. Initially, the Keys will be on the southern fringe in a col
region resulting in mainly variable breezes through tonight. As
the weak low pressure area shifts to the west and high pressure
builds in behind, breezes will freshen becoming southeast to south
at first, before becoming east to southeast for mid to late week.
Also, expect increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms
through the middle part of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(15Z TAFS)
Issued at 1125 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025
VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF
period. Later this afternoon, a period of shower activity could
potentially impact either terminal, for the time being, VCSH is
included but if direct impacts are expected TEMPOs will be added.
Near surface winds will be light and variable through this
evening.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...AP
Aviation/Nowcasts....AP
Data Acquisition.....AP

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