337
FXUS62 KKEY 280202
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1002 PM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Major coastal flooding will continue across the Keys during the
  next several tidal cycles. Coastal flooding will gradually
  decrease later this week, but receding rates may be slow,
  especially in the Upper Keys.

- A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all Florida Keys marine
  zones. Fresh to strong breezes will abruptly slacken from east
  to west on Wednesday.

- Fast-moving scattered showers will continue across the Upper
  Keys overnight, gradually pushing westward to the Lower and
  Middle Keys through tomorrow. Any of this activity will be
  capable of producing stronger wind gusts.

 &&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 957 PM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026
Taking a look at IR satellite imagery this evening, we can see a
clear region of cyclonic circulation southwest of Andros Island
associated with the center of a remnant surface low. Scattered
showers are being generated on the northwestern side of the low,
mainly across the southeast coast of Florida and into our eastern
marine zones. A stout layer of warm, dry air aloft was measured on
the 00Z KKEY RAOB, while a slightly more favorable moisture profile
is remaining confined to the Upper Keys and adjacent waters, per
forecast soundings and ongoing precip. The low will ever so slightly
shift to the west tonight which will allow for passing showers to
graze the Upper and perhaps Middle Keys. The Lower Keys should
remain mostly rain-free until at least tomorrow. A washout is
certainly not expected, but even small rainfall accumulations along
the island chain could compound with the ongoing saltwater King
Tide flooding. We`ll be keeping a close eye on accumulations,
especially over the next few hours as we`re currently well on our
way to the highest peak of this King Tide event. Major saltwater
flooding is expected in lower-lying parts of the Keys overnight,
and residents should take the necessary precautions to protect
vehicles and property from saltwater exposure. It`s possible the
Keys remain in a dry slot tomorrow as the low continues to slowly
drift westward across the area. But it`s difficult not to at least
advertise Chance PoPs given favorable low-level moisture, so the
forecast will remain unchanged. Also, with the low centered
overhead tomorrow, the enhanced pressure gradient will become
aligned to our north, so there will be a sharp decrease in our
winds with Small Craft Advisory conditions finally coming to an
end early in the morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 957 PM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all Florida Keys marine
zones. From synopsis, a tight pressure gradient between high
pressure over the Eastern Seaboard and a low pressure system near
the Bahamas will support strong breezes tonight. As the low slides
westward towards the Keys, breezes will abruptly slacken on
Wednesday. The low will slide into the central Gulf and weaken
later this week, as another high pressure system takes over the
pressure field through the weekend. This will support light to
gentle northeast to east breezes through Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 738 PM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at EYW through this TAF
period. At MTH, MVFR ceilings on the west side of a weak surface
low may reach the terminal this evening in addition to VCSH as the
low shifts to the west. VFR ceilings should then return to MTH
~09-10Z, but a SCT deck will remain around 3kft. Winds will
gradually decrease overnight with north-northeasterly breezes
around 8 to 12 kts and occasional gusts of 15-18 kts. Gusts should
diminish by sunrise tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  76  83  77  85 /  20  40  30  20
Marathon  77  84  77  85 /  20  40  30  20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Warning until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for FLZ076>078.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for GMZ031>035-
     042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...DM
Aviation/Nowcasts....DM
Data Acquisition.....11

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