208
FXUS63 KLBF 080642
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
142 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Precipitation chances will shift south today as a cold front
  progresses across the area.

- Lingering threat for showers and thunderstorms tonight in southeastern
  areas with dry conditions expected there after through
  Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 141 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Precipitation chances today and early this evening is the main
forecast challenge in the near term. Upper level low pressure
will track across central Manitoba today. A trailing shortwave
trough will track from western into northeastern Montana. These
systems will force a cool front through the forecast area today.
Late this afternoon, this feature will extend from far NW
Kansas into east central Nebraska. The latest NAM12 and 00z HRRR
soln are in agreement with this scenario tonight, while the 00z
WARW is more aggressive with the front having it oriented from
west central Kansas into far SE Nebraska late this afternoon.
That being said, feel the best chances for convection tied to
the surface front will be across far southeastern portions of
the FA today. This main chance will be during the afternoon
hours as the front exits the forecast area between 18z and 21z
this afternoon. The front will push further south into Kansas
this evening shifting the surface focused precipitation south.
Behind the front, decent mid level frontogenesis will develop
this evening into the early overnight hours from far
southwestern into south central and east central Nebraska. This
will lead to a lingering threat for showers and thunderstorms
across southern portions of the forecast area. The latest NBM
forecast was dry across the south with the second round of
elevated forced precipitation. Based on the deterministic 00z
NAM12, 00z WARW and 00z HRRR solns, decided to insert a mention
of showers and thunderstorms in far southeastern areas mainly
this evening. Surface high pressure will then build into the
northern forecast area overnight, then southern portions of the
forecast area Wednesday morning. With cool high pressure being
the dominant feature across Nebraska Wednesday. Even with mainly
clear skies, highs will reach the upper 70s north of Interstate
80 with lower 80s across southwestern Nebraska.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 141 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

High pressure aloft across the Desert Southwest will gradually
weaken as deep troughing dives southeast from western Canada.
Southerly flow will support warmer temperatures with a return to
upper 80s to lower 90s for Thursday and Friday. Broad upper-level
height falls from the approaching longwave trough will overspread
the area. Low pressure across the Northern Plains will drag a cold
front south into the area during the afternoon/evening hours. NBM
QPF probabilities continue to favor areas to our south and east and
as a result, the going forecast keep most of the forecast area dry.
That said, determinstic solutions vary slightly on placement of this
boundary by roughly 100-200 miles. Any slower progression with this
feature will bode more favorable for local rain chances thus
confidence in precipitation potential remains low for now. More
unsettled weather will be on tap for the weekend as enhanced mid-
level flow resides immediately north of the area. Though upper-level
dynamics will largely miss the immediate area, reasonable moisture
fetch from the Gulf combined with mid-level moisture originating
from the Eastern Pacific will combine to produce PWAT values nearly
1-2 sigma above normal values for mid-September. NBM remains fairly
noisy with broad low-probabilities for wetting rain and this closely
aligns with the latest EPS solution. That said, deterministic
ECMWF/GFS solutions are fairly aggressive with rainfall over the
weekend but particularly Sunday night as a surface low takes shape
in the lee of the Central Rockies. This will be something to watch
in the coming days including a potential severe threat with stronger
mid-level flow supporting a sheared environment. Of course the
question remains where the frontal boundary sets up. NBM inner-
quartile spreads remain large, 20F for North Platte on Sunday,
highlighting this uncertainty.

Towards the middle of next week, upper-level ridging will redevelop
over the southern CONUS with increasing influence across Nebraska.
Though NBM MaxT spread remains large, gradual day over day increases
are noted from Monday through Thursday. While heights aloft will
increase, non-zero precipitation potential will exist. Though no one
day appears to be a washout, recurring rain chances should be enough
to keep us on the wetter side of normal for the time frame. This
aligns with the latest Climate Prediction Center 8-14 outlook which
hedges towards > 40% probabilities of above normal precipitation for
Tuesday through the end of next week. Details are far from certain
so continue to check back with later forecasts for details.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Overnight there will be a continued threat for thunderstorms
generally south of a KANW to KOGA line. The greatest threat for
storms for the KLBF terminal is through 10z overnight. Will
handle mention of thunderstorms overnight with a tempo group
from 06z to 10z. Expect mainly cloudy skies at the KLBF terminal
through late morning with some temporary clearing late this
afternoon. Skies will then become broken at 20000 FT AGL this
evening. For the KVTN terminal: Expect broken ceilings around
20000 FT AGL overnight. ATTM, convection is expected to remain
southeast of the terminal and will be kept out of the TAF
forecast. Skies will gradually partially clear Tuesday
afternoon with scattered clouds around 25000 FT AGL.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...Buttler