439
FXUS63 KLBF 161120
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
620 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe
  thunderstorms across far southwestern portions of the
  forecast area today/tonight.

- Expect well below normal temperatures today and Thursday with readings
  in the 60s/lower 70s today and lower to middle 70s for
  Thursday.

- Seasonal temperatures are expected Friday through Sunday with
  above normal temperatures returning to the area Monday and
  Tuesday. Precipitation chances (20 to 50 percent) are greatest
  late Friday and late Saturday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 311 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

H5 analysis tonight had high pressure over the western
Atlantic and eastern Pacific. Low pressure was located over Hudson
Bay with a trough extending south into Ontario. West of this trough,
a shortwave trough extended from northwestern Montana into central
Idaho. Downstream of this feature, shortwaves were noted over west
central Wyoming and over western Nebraska. Both of these features
have triggered thunderstorms tonight over northeastern Wyoming and
central and eastern Nebraska. Showers and thunderstorms have moved
out of the forecast area as of midnight CT with the activity over
northeastern Wyoming tracking into southwestern South Dakota and far
northwestern Nebraska overnight. A cold front passed through western
and north central Nebraska earlier this evening and as of 2 AM CT
extended from west central Kansas to far northwestern Missouri.
Skies overnight were mostly cloudy north of I-80 as a shroud of low
cloudiness has pushed into the area from the north. Temperatures as
of 2 AM CT ranged from 58 degrees at Gordon to 67 degrees at
Ogallala.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 311 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Cool and mostly cloudy conditions will persist over the next 24
hours thanks to strong cool air advection behind the exiting
front and northeasterly and easterly upslope winds. Two areas
will see a threat for showers and thunderstorms today. Storms
will be possible across the far northwestern forecast area
mainly this morning as residual convection drifts east from
northeastern Wyoming. Forcing in association with this activity
will be focused mainly north of a line from Antioch to
Springview and will place 20 to 40 percent pops in these areas
with the highest pops hugging the SD/NE border. Later this
afternoon into the evening hours. Thunderstorms will initiate
along a backed frontal boundary, situated from eastern Wyoming
into northeastern Colorado. Westerly winds will eventually carry
this activity into western and southwestern Nebraska by early
evening. The bulk of this activity is expected to weaken as it
lifts east into a stable, cloudy airmass located across the
forecast area. With only minor amounts of QPF forecast over SW
Nebraska, will limit pops to 20 to 50 percent with the best
chances from Chase to Frontier county. Later this evening, the
CAMS and NAM12 soln develop a broad swath of convection across
northern Kansas into far south central and southeastern
Nebraska. This area is INVOF the stalled out cool front. With
respect to highs today: Will continue to trend highs toward the
low end of the NBM, which is in alignment with the MAV guidance.
This seems reasonable, given the degree of expected low level
cloudiness today. Highs today will range from the middle 60s
over northern Nebraska, to the lower 70s in SW Nebraska. The MET
guidance was forecasting near record low max temps for North
Platte today and felt its forecast of middle 60s was too cool.
Skies will remain mostly cloudy tonight as low level easterly
winds persist across the area. By Thursday morning, we will
begin to see some limited clearing in central and eastern
portions of the forecast area as surface high pressure builds
into central and eastern Nebraska. Temperatures will remain cool
on Thursday with readings in the middle 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 311 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

High pressure will build east of the area Thursday night into
Friday. Southerly winds will increase and a warm front will lift
across the area. Much warmer temperatures will result with
highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s Friday. Seasonal temperatures
will continue into the weekend with highs generally in the 80s.
Temperatures will begin to ramp up into the 90s Monday and
Tuesday and there is some indication in the long range guidance
for highs in the mid to upper 90s for Tuesday. The precipitation
forecast is problematic in the long term thanks to weak mid
level flow and thunderstorm initiation which is highly dependent
of embedded mid level disturbances which the models are not in
agreement with. Even more difficult is pinning down a severe
threat, as mid level flow remains fairly week with limited wind
shear. Current forecast trends have the best chances for
precipitation Friday night and Saturday night, however chances
are limited in the 20 to 50 percent range.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 620 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

For the KLBF terminal: Expect IFR ceilings this morning around
700 FT AGL, lifting to MVFR ceilings of 1200 to 2500 FT AGL this
afternoon. Skies will remain cloudy tonight with ceilings
falling back to around 1500 FT AGL overnight. For the KVTN
terminal: IFR ceilings of 400 to 700 FT AGL will continue this
morning before increasing to 1300 to 2000 FT AGL this
afternoon. Ceilings will increase further to 3000 to 5000 FT AGL
before falling to 1500 FT AGL overnight tonight. Some patchy
fog will impact the terminal through 15z this morning with
visibilities as low as 4 miles.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Buttler