459
FXUS63 KLBF 021150
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
550 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Precipitation continues through Tuesday morning, with the
  greatest accumulations expected north of HWY 2.

- Strong northwest winds are expected behind a cold front
  Monday night into Tuesday, with a threat for wind gusts as
  high as 55 miles per hour.

- Temperatures return to near seasonal mid week onward. Through
  the end of the week, precipitation chances remain low.
  Precipitation may return by the weekend, however, confidence
  remains low at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 201 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Currently, rain continues to overspread much of western and north
central Nebraska, ahead of deepening surface low pressure across
eastern Wyoming. Temperatures remain steady in the middle to upper
50s across the area, amid continued southeasterly warm advection.
Modest MUCAPE ~250-500J/kg has overspread western and southwest
Nebraska, as lapse rates have steepened aloft ahead of the
encroaching upper low beginning to eject east into the Rockies.

For today, expect ongoing precipitation to continue to slowly spread
north and east through this morning, gradually exiting into South
Dakota by this afternoon. This is as the surface low begins to eject
eastwards into the Sandhills, dragging a cold front quickly across
the area today from west to east. A brief lull in precipitation can
be expected with frontal passage this afternoon, before the upper
low begins to move east and the deformation axis begins to
overspread western Nebraska by this evening and tonight. Guidance
continues to be in good agreement with a lack of cold air within
this deformation axis, with a model consensus even pointing to H85
temps remaining above freezing through the entirety of the event.
This will keep all precipitation as liquid, and will certainly limit
impacts as winds strengthen behind the cold front. In all, the
greatest accumulations look to remain for areas north of HWY 2, with
amounts of 0.5-1.0" possible. Areas further south will likely see
lesser longevity of precipitation this morning, and look to remain
south of the deformation band tonight into Tuesday. Accumulations
south of HWY 2 are largely expected to remain <0.25".

The main impact still looks to be the aforementioned strong northwest
winds behind the cold front, as strengthening cold advection
promotes ample mechanical mixing tonight into tomorrow morning. Flow
aloft quickly strengthens on the backside of the departing low
tonight, with H7-H85 flow strengthening to 40-45kts across the area.
This is slightly weaker than in previous forecast cycles, and lends
some doubt to the threat for high wind warning criteria (58+ mph)
gusts tonight into tomorrow morning. Still, with the ample
mechanical mixing promoting this higher momentum flow downwards, a
very windy overnight and Tuesday morning can be expected as gusts of
45 to 55 miles per hour persist for all of western and north central
Nebraska. Tuesday morning looks miserable from a weather
perspective, with the strong northwest wind gusts, scattered
precipitation and wind chills falling into the lower to middle 20s.
The system slowly departs through the day Tuesday, though the strong
winds will likely persist into Tuesday evening. Some rain may linger
across north central Nebraska as well, before precipitation finally
ends by Tuesday night. Temperatures Tuesday afternoon are only
expected to climb into the upper 40s for most, with the strong cold
advection combining with the persistent cloudiness being slow
to clear from west to east into Tuesday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 201 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

A fairly active upper level pattern is expected across the United
States Wednesday onward, however, most of the systems are expected
to track either north or south of the region. This will generally
bring a cooler, drier weather pattern that settles in for the rest
of the week. Wednesday and into the weekend, highs are only expected
to climb into the 50s across most of western and north central
Nebraska, though a few highs clipping into the lower 60s cannot be
completely ruled out. These highs are fairly typical for early
November, as our climatological highs range between 55 to 58
degrees. Lows each night are expected to drop into the lower 30s,
with some potential for localized drops into the upper 20s. Typical
lows for early November are in the mid 20s, so this pattern may keep
us just slightly warmer than normal.

Will continue to monitor the potential for precipitation during the
weekend, as an upper level disturbance is expected to track across
the Dakotas. Precipitation chances have remained fairly low
confidence, as there is still some uncertainty in how this pattern
will evolve. Latest guidance is trending the shortwave slightly
further north, which may now only bring a glancing blow of
precipitation across the northern portions of the state. In fact,
ensemble guidance is now fairly pessimistic on northern Nebraska
receiving any precipitation. Latest probabilities from the GEFS for
measureable rainfall are widely less than 20 percent for areas along
and north of Highway 20, with some localized pockets of 30 percent
chances along Highway 20. However, the European ensembles cover most
of the region in a 30 percent chance for measureable rainfall this
weekend. Even if precipitation were to occur, at this time, it looks
to be very little. However, given the uncertainty, will continue to
monitor forecast trends and make changes to the forecast as
appropriate.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 550 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

A low pressure system tracks across the Sandhills this morning,
bringing rain across northern Nebraska. Stratus across southwest
Nebraska is beginning to erode, and should clear to VFR for a few
hours this morning. However, expect conditions will fall back to at
least MVFR across the region as stratus redevelops late this
morning. As the low slowly tracks across the region today, expect
winds to shift to northwesterly and become very gusty by the
afternoon. Peak gusts around 45 knots will be possible across the
Sandhills, but generally expect gusts at KLBF and KVTN to peak
around 40 knots. These strong winds will last through the night and
into the next TAF period as well. This evening, expect another round
of precipitation to track across north central Nebraska, which
should drop conditions back down to IFR, remaining so through the
end of this TAF period.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Richie