197
FXUS63 KLBF 040835
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
235 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered light rain showers will be possible
  Wednesday afternoon into the evening across portions of north
  central Nebraska, with the highest possibility being across
  Boyd and Holt counties.

- Near normal to slightly below normal daytime highs are
  forecasted Wednesday and Thursday.

- Highs steadily climb from near seasonal on Friday to above
  seasonal by early next week.

- Precipitation chances remain low through the weekend into the
  middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 233 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

There are two closed lows aloft moving across CONUS. The trailing
low is tumbling across the Rockies while the lead low will remain
stationed over the northern Great Plains, just northeast of our CWA.
The latter is helping create a sharp gradient between a low cloud
layer across the east and drier air further west. With this
knowledge, along with northwesterly winds, have opted to lower
overnight/early morning Wednesday lows across western Nebraska to
the upper 20s, with the Platte River Valley potentially reaching as
low as the mid 20s. Patchy to locally dense fog is has developed and
is expected to remain through the early morning hours today along
the northeastern portions of the CWA, with it being the most dense
along the SD/NE border. Below climatological highs are likely across
the region with the south west reaching the mid 50s while further
north, reaching the upper 40s. North central Nebraska
particularly will be 5 to 7 degrees below normal. An embedded
shortwave is forecasted to track around the western edge of the
upper low through eastern South Dakota and into the northeastern
portions of Nebraska Wednesday afternoon into the evening
hours. This will bring a about the potential of isolated chances
of light rain. While recent models have light showers reaching
as far west as Valentine, general consensus for the highest
rain chances remains along Boyd and Holt counties, with only a
couple hundredths of rain expected.

Heading into Thursday, both upper lows are forecasted to weaken and
absorb into the mean flow. While still remaining a trough as it
moves across the central Plains. H850 temps are forecasted to remain
fairly modest at 6 to 12 degrees Celsius, with the higher side being
confined closer to the Panhandle. This should help daytime highs
Thursday remain near climatological norms in the 50s across western
Nebraska even with the upper trough overhead.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 233 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

An upper level shortwave tracks across north central North Dakota on
Friday, with height rises following in its wake through the weekend.
This will support temperatures staying around seasonal on Friday,
with highs continuing to climb through the weekend. For Friday,
mostly expecting highs in the mid 50s, though could still see some
cooler highs across north central Nebraska, where greater cloud
cover could limit highs to the upper 40s. By the weekend, expect
highs push into the upper 50s to lower 60s as subtle ridging builds
across the northern Plains. With the ridging in place, no
precipitation is expected this weekend.

Looking ahead to early next week, an upper level low tracks across
the southern Plains, with upper level ridging tracking across the
northern Plains. This will continue to support a dry pattern. In
fact, ensemble guidance shows virtually no chances for precipitation
through at least the middle of next week. Temperatures are also
expected to be slightly above normal with this ridging. Highs early
next week are expected to push into the lower to mid 60s, which is
around 10 degrees normal than usual for this time of year. However,
some of the warmer guidance does suggest potential that we could see
highs pushing into the upper 60s, particularly on Monday and
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1138 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

VFR conditions prevail across most of the region, with clear skies
and light northwest winds. However, across north central Nebraska,
including the KVTN terminal, stratus remains in place, with
localized patches of fog. Expect that conditions will fluctuate
throughout the night from LIFR to MVFR, and possibly to VFR. By the
morning, expecting a subtle easterly track in the stratus deck,
which should bring VFR conditions back to KVTN. Amendments will
likely be needed through the night. Throughout the day, northwest
winds increase slightly, with gusts around 20 knots across the
region. Most of the region should see VFR conditions, though low end
VFR to MVFR conditions may persist across portions of north central
Nebraska.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MRS
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Richie