090
FXUS63 KLBF 181854
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
154 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening,
 with the greatest threat across southwest Nebraska. Large to
 very large hail, damaging winds, and locally heavy rainfall are
 possible.

-Additional strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
and Thursday, though the exact coverage and location of the greatest
threat remain uncertain.

-Warmer and drier conditions return Friday through the weekend,
 with highs climbing into the upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 154 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

This afternoon, a weak disturbance will move into western portions
of the region, which is evident in current satellite imagery and is
accompanied by increasing mid-level cloud cover. At the surface,
continued theta-e advection will help strengthen a low-level
moisture and instability gradient across western Nebraska later this
afternoon into the evening. This gradient, combined with the mid-
level disturbance approaching from Wyoming, should provide a focus
for shower and thunderstorm development. In terms of severe weather
potential, sufficient instability combined with 35 to 40 knots of
deep-layer shear should support organized convection. Initial storms
developing across the Nebraska Panhandle and moving east toward the
forecast area will be capable of producing large hail and damaging
winds, particularly during the late afternoon and evening. The
evolution of convection tonight remains somewhat uncertain, though
forecast soundings across southwest Nebraska depict an environment
potentially supportive of significant severe weather. The strongest
storms may be capable of producing hail greater than 2 inches in
diameter and wind gusts exceeding 75 mph. The SPC has placed
portions of southwest Nebraska back into a Slight Risk for severe
weather, which aligns well with the more favorable environment
currently expected across this area. Later tonight, likely after 10
PM CDT to midnight, the initial round of storms should continue
moving east and gradually exit the area. However, a lingering chance
for additional showers and thunderstorms will remain across north-
central Nebraska as another weak disturbance moves through the
region. The severe weather environment across north-central Nebraska
does not appear as favorable as farther southwest, though sufficient
instability and shear may still support a threat for large hail and
damaging winds with any stronger storms. Locally heavy rainfall will
also remain possible given the favorable moisture environment across
the region.

Wednesday, the evolution of tonights convection will play an
important role in the severe weather potential. Outflow from
tonights thunderstorms will likely reinforce a surface boundary and
push it southward into Kansas Wednesday morning into the early
afternoon. The eventual position of this boundary will influence
where the best moisture and instability are able to recover during
the afternoon. MUCAPE will remain across portions of the area, while
deep-layer shear of 40 to 45 knots could once again support
organized convection Wednesday afternoon into the evening. At this
time, the severe weather threat appears more isolated than today,
which aligns well with the SPC Day 2 Marginal Risk. However,
uncertainty remains regarding the placement of the outflow boundary
and the degree of destabilization that can occur behind tonights
convection. This will continue to be monitored over the next several
forecast cycles. Temperatures Wednesday will remain cooler, with
highs generally in the lower to middle 80s as northwest flow
persists across the region.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 154 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

The severe weather threat will likely continue into Thursday, with
the greatest potential currently appearing near and east of Highway
83. A surface trough is forecast to move into the region and should
provide a focus for thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon into
the evening. Ample instability combined with stronger flow aloft and
sufficient deep-layer shear should once again support organized
convection capable of producing large hail and damaging winds.
Moisture profiles will also remain favorable, with elevated
precipitable water values supporting efficient rainfall processes
and the potential for locally heavy rainfall with the stronger
thunderstorms. Some uncertainty remains regarding the exact position
of the surface trough and where the most favorable instability will
develop, which will ultimately influence the location and magnitude
of the severe weather threat.

Friday through the weekend, the upper-level ridge across the western
United States will amplify and gradually shift eastward toward the
region. Increasing heights and warm air advection will allow 850-mb
temperatures to return to the 20 to 25C range across the area. As a
result, highs will warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s from late
week through the weekend, bringing temperatures back to near to
slightly above normal for this time of year. Precipitation chances
should also decrease as the stronger upper-level flow and better
forcing shift north and east of the area, while increasing
subsidence beneath the ridge limits opportunities for convection.
Overall, a warmer and predominantly drier pattern is expected
through the weekend.

By early next week, the upper-level ridge is forecast to begin
flattening, resulting in a transition toward more zonal flow across
the region. While this pattern may eventually allow weak
disturbances to move across the area, relatively weak mid and upper-
level flow currently appears likely to limit organized severe
weather potential. Confidence in the timing and strength of any
disturbances remains low at this range.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north
central Nebraska through the TAF period. Scattered thunderstorms
are expected to develop across the Panhandle and move eastward
though the evening hours. These could contain gusty winds.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Labenz
LONG TERM...Labenz
AVIATION...Taylor