401
FXUS63 KLBF 180010
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
710 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers are possible Saturday across northern Nebraska.

- Dry conditions prevail Saturday night through Thursday.

- Frost/freeze conditions likely across much of north central Nebraska
  Sunday morning as temperatures plummet into the mid 20s to
  low 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 342 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

A shortwave trough will dig south across the Great Plains tonight
and into Saturday. This will result in some light rain showers
across northern Nebraska during the day Saturday and gusty winds up
to 20 to 30 mph across much of the region through the afternoon. Any
shower activity should remain isolated and not expected to produce
much QPF let alone be severe. Dry conditions will prevail across
areas south of Highway 2 as moisture struggles to push further
southward. The trough will quickly move off to the east with much
colder air filtering in behind. Lows tonight will remain above
average in the upper 30s to low 40s. However, the passage of the
trough will keep highs on Saturday on the cooler side of guidance
with forecasts only in the low to mid 50s, nearly 10 to 15 degrees
below normals.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 342 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Strong upper level ridging across the western US will allow for
surface high pressure to build into the region on Sunday lasting
through the middle of next week. At this time no significant
precipitation is expected across the region keeping conditions dry
through Thursday.

However, the main concern will occur on Sunday morning as
temperatures fall into the mid 20s to low 30s. With the latest
probability guidance suggesting much colder low temperatures than
what was inherited (25th percentile near 30 for North Platte, and
50th percentile near 32), have cut Sunday morning lows by a few
degrees across the board. Confidence remains high in lower
temperatures and therefore, would not be surprised to see lows drop
another couple degrees before Saturday night. Regardless, relatively
calm east southeast winds Saturday night combined with clear skies
will allow for ample radiational cooling dropping apparent
temperature values into the low to upper 20s for most locations.
With the latest guidance suggesting even cooler temperatures and a
high certainty that most locations will see frost/freeze conditions,
have gone ahead an issued a Freeze Watch for the entire north
central Nebraska region (minus Sheridan/Cherry counties where freeze
conditions have already occurred this Fall).

This colder airmass will be short-lived as warm air advection brings
850 mb temperatures in the 10 to 20 C range back into the region by
Sunday afternoon. Therefore highs return to the mid 60s to low 70s
with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s for much of next week. The
exception will be on Monday and Monday night where temperatures
return to below normal (normal highs: mid 60s; normal lows: mid 30s)
as a developing low across the northern Plains will usher a cooler
airmass into the central and western Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 651 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

VFR conditions will prevail across all of western and north
central Nebraska tonight through Saturday. A few showers are
possible across northern Nebraska Saturday behind a strong cold
front. Gusty north to northwest winds will develop Saturday as
the cold front crosses the area.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for
NEZ006>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RK
LONG TERM...RK
AVIATION...Taylor