764
FXUS63 KLBF 021945
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
245 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm chances will remain the focus through Monday
  across the region. A few severe storms will be possible.

- Heat builds into the region Tuesday through Friday. In fact,
  could see near heat advisory conditions Thursday into Friday
  with hot temperatures combining with the humidity.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

A weak upstream shortwave is noted across southern WY into CO this
afternoon. A Leeward surface trough will deepen across the high
plains this afternoon ahead of the approaching wave. Southerly low-
level flow has increased across KS and NE this afternoon in response
to the sharpening trough. This has helped to draw low to mid 60s dew
points northward through western NE. Westerly flow aloft is
spreading a stout EML eastward across the western/central plains
with very steep mid-level lapse rates. This is contributing to
moderately song surface based instability for areas along and west
of Highway 83. Storm initiation is expected in the vicinity of this
surface trough across eastern WY into the western portion of the
Nebraska Panhandle late this afternoon. This activity will likely
survive into western Nebraska bu this evening, partly driven by 0-6
km Bulk Shear values in the 35-45 kt range. Appears that a few
strong to potentially severe gusts will be the main threat but some
hail cannot be ruled out with the stronger shear.

Sunday will bring another threat for widely scattered storms during
the afternoon into the evening hours. A weak surface trough will be
anchored from near Valentine to Sidney by late afternoon. It appears
that overall shear will be somewhat weaker Sunday, and no real
defined wave to enhance lift for storm development. It appears that
convergence along the boundary will have to serve as the main focus
for widely scattered afternoon development. As storms attempt to
move east-southeastward off the boundary, a moderately unstable
atmosphere will likely support storms lingering though the evening
across portions of the Sandhills, southwest and central Nebraska.
Appears the main threat will be strong, gusty winds with a few
instances of hail possible in the strongest cores.

Monday could end up being a bit more interesting. However, heights
will be rising as upper level high pressure begins to build
northward through the Rockies. This could cap the atmosphere and pr
event development all together. Still, a few of the CAMS develop
isolated supercell development across portions of northwest Nebraska
in a moist, upslope environment. If a storm materializes it would
likely be severe and a right-turning supercell, with all severe
hazards possible in a strongly sheared and unstable environment.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Attention turns to the heat and less of a storm threat as we head
into the Tuesday through Friday timeframe. Ridging aloft will
continue to expand north and eastward across the central plains.
Stronger winds aloft and any embedded disturbances look to shift
more into the northern plains. This shifts the better focus for
thunderstorm activity northward. Cannot rule out a stray storm or
two with the expected heat and humidity, but chances don`t look
favorable due to rising heights and warming temperatures aloft.

The bigger story will be the heat gradually building eastward across
the area through the week. In fact, we may be near heat advisory
criteria by Thursday into Friday as the heat combines with
humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Ceilings will lift above MVFR thresholds this afternoon across
western and north central Nebraska. Scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop across the western Nebraska Panhandle and
eastern Wyoming late this afternoon. These will move eastward
this evening into western Nebraska. Variable and gusty winds can
be expected in and near any thunderstorm. MVFR ceilings are
expected to develop again tonight, generally along and east of a
line from ANW to BBW.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Taylor