894
FXUS63 KLBF 091734
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1234 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm conditions continue today and tomorrow, with highs in
  the middle to upper 90s along and west of HWY 83. Isolated
  thunderstorms are also possible through tomorrow night, with a
  few strong to severe storms Monday afternoon along and north
  of I-80.

- Rain/thunderstorm increase Wednesday through the end of next
  week.

- High temperatures start out very warm Tuesday but then cool
  considerably by the latter part of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 347 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Currently, still monitoring the threat for patchy fog development
this morning, primarily across the Sandhills and central Nebraska.
This is a consequence of surface high pressure moving through the
area overnight, with light and variable winds amid ample surface
moisture. Patchy dense fog is possible, but coverage of this looks
to preclude any Dense Fog Advisory headlines at this time. The
surface high departs off to the east by late morning, and increasing
southerly winds and warming temperatures should quickly erode any
lingering fog.

Another warm day is then on tap this afternoon, with temperatures
again hovering near the 90th percentile climo aloft across western
Nebraska. Highs again climb into the middle 90s, primarily for areas
along and west of HWY 83. Much of the day today is expected to be
dry, with the aforementioned warm temperatures aloft leading to
strong CIN. However, by late afternoon, a weak shortwave will round
the apex of the upper ridge (centered over the Four Corners) and
traverse across western Nebraska. Subtly increasing ascent aloft
with the approach of this wave may be just enough to erode the
lingering CIN by early evening. Weak surface convergence along a
dryline near HWY 61 may allow for isolated thunderstorm development
with the erosion of the aforementioned CIN. Should any thunderstorms
develop, strong deep layer shear and adequate instability does
suggest updraft organization and some threat for a supercell or two.
Steep lapse rates aloft would lend support for large hail and
damaging winds are also possible within a fairly well mixed
environment across western Nebraska. That said, the window for any
surface based storms looks very short lived, with inhibition quickly
increasing again towards sunset. Confidence in thunderstorms near
the HWY 61 corridor remains low for now, but will continue to be
monitored closely. Additional thunderstorms may impact portions of
far north central Nebraska as they move southeast out of central
South Dakota, though recent high-res guidance solutions varies
widely with coverage and propagation of this convection. If storms do
move into north central Nebraska this afternoon and evening, a
threat for damaging winds will exist.

Very similar conditions are expected for Monday, with again the
warmest highs (middle to upper 90s) along and west of HWY 83. As
with previous days, humidity looks to remain low enough to preclude
Head Advisory concerns, with heat indicies only peaking in the
middle 90s. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will again be
possible Monday afternoon, but mesoscale details remain very unclear
at this time. The background environment again would support some
threat for severe weather, with the persistent strong winds aloft
promoting ample deep layer shear for updraft organization. A threat
for large hail and damaging winds is possible with any storms that
form, though coverage and location will remain uncertain until
mesoscale details are resolved further.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 347 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Upper level ridging will remain anchored near the Four Corners
region yet Tuesday. West to northwest flow aloft will be in place
across our area on the northeast periphery of the high. Expect one
more hot day with highs well in the 90s at most locations.

The upper level ridging flattens some with the center translating
into the southern plains my the middle and latter parts of the week.
Ensemble guidance suggests somewhat stronger winds aloft will
develop southward from the northern plains as the ridge flattens. At
the same time, mean PWAT values will be on the increase, as
monsoonal/subtropical moisture aloft flows northward across the
desert southwest and turns eastward across the region on the
northern edge of the southern plains upper high. The ENS suggests
mean PWAT values greater than 1.5" by Wednesday night and lasting
through at least Friday. Several embedded shortwaves are expected
within the westerly flow. The result will be increasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and beyond. Will have to monitor
the potential for some localized heavy rainfall amounts with such an
abundance of atmospheric moisture.

A considerable cool down also looks to be on tap by the of the week.
At the surface, A Canadian airmass attempts to nose southward into
the northern and central plains. Current forecast guidance suggests
several days of highs in the lower to mid 70s Thursday into next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north
central Nebraska today and this evening. While a few showers and
thunderstorms may track across the region this evening, as of now,
expecting these will miss area terminals, so have omitted from the
TAFs. Overnight, expect another round of fog and low stratus to form
across southwest Nebraska into north central Nebraska. Forecast
soundings and probabilistic guidance show a strong signal for fog,
but deterministic guidance struggles to resolve it. May need to lower
visibilities in follow on forecasts as confidence in visibility
reductions increases, which may bring IFR to LIFR conditions
overnight and into the early morning hours.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Richie