898
FXUS63 KLBF 290536
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1236 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible tonight across
  the forecast area. A few storms may be severe with large hail
  and damaging winds with the greatest severe threat west and
  north of a line from Broken Bow, to Bassett, to Lynch.

- There will be a continued threat for strong to severe storms
  Saturday and Sunday across portions of the area. Large hail
  and damaging winds are the main threats.

- Temperatures will be above normal this weekend and have a
  good potential to remain above normal Monday through Friday
  next week.

- After Monday night, precipitation chances will decrease
  across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 311 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Embedded disturbances will ride northeast across Wyoming and
northern Colorado, approaching eastern Wyoming and north central
Colorado late this afternoon, initiating convection along the
front ranges of southeastern Wyoming and northern Colorado. This
activity will ride east into the evening hours with the best
chances for precipitation mainly along and west of highway 83.
The loss of surface heating and associated instability will
decrease heading east across the eastern half of the forecast
area. With that in mind, have favored highest pops over the far
western forecast area, gradually decreasing them from west to
east to the highway 83 corridor. This is in agreement with the
latest CAMS including the 12z NAM12 and WARW solns and the 17z
HRRR. A second area of convection, which originates over South
Dakota, may impact far northeastern portions of the forecast
area late this evening into the overnight hours. As for the
severe threat, feel the initial mode in the west will be large
hail and gusty winds given the fairly steep mid level lapse
rates. DCAPE is favorable for gusty winds later this evening in
the east. On Saturday, H5 high pressure will transition east,
approaching the Texas Panhandle early Saturday afternoon. Broad
west southwest flow aloft will develop upstream from the ridge
to a deepening trough of low pressure anchored over the Pacific
NW Coast. Saturday will be very warm across the forecast area
with H85 temperatures reaching 31C at 21z for KLBF (12Z NAM
soln). Readings reach around 33z for KIML. That being said
forecast highs in the upper 90s to hear 100 for SW Nebraska
appears on track. As the Pacific NW trough approaches northern
Idaho late Saturday, ridging across the central plains will be
suppressed south, leading to west southwesterly flow aloft.
Convection is expected to fire over the Cheyenne Ridge and
northeastern Colorado Saturday afternoon, then lift east
northeast into the forecast area Saturday evening. ATTM the
greatest risk for severe storms appears to be over western and
northwestern portions of the forecast area per the latest
SWODY2. However, based on the latest NAM12 soln favorable DCAPE
and shear extends further south into SW Nebraska Saturday
evening. The 12z HRRR soln this morning is hinting at bowing
segments along the I-80 corridor Saturday evening. That being
said, wouldn`t be surprised if the marginal risk is extended
further south covering more of southwestern Nebraska
Saturday/Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 311 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Upper level low pressure will transition east along the
Montana/Canadian border Sunday. The severe threat should shift
north into the western and central Dakotas Sunday night.
However, we may see a strong to severe storm along a trailing
frontal boundary. This feature will track across the forecast
area Sunday night so am expecting a "late show" across the
forecast area with convection during the late evening to
overnight hours. Beyond Sunday, upper level high pressure will
transition east from the Arklatex into the Tennessee Valley.
Gulf moisture on the back side to the high will lift from the
southern plains into eastern Kansas and the lower Missouri
Valley. The latest mid model solns indicate a drier airmass
across central and western Nebraska, leading to lower
precipitation chances across the area. This drier trend will
begin on Tuesday and continue into Friday next week. After highs
in the 80s to near 90 for Monday and Tuesday, above normal
temperatures will arrive Wednesday continuing through Friday
with highs generally in the lower to mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north
central Nebraska throughout most of the effective TAF period. A
final push of thunderstorms is currently tracking across southwest
Nebraska, bringing localized impacts and gusty, erratic winds. This
complex is expected to exit the area by 08z at the latest.
Overnight, a strong low level jet brings LLWS concerns across most
of the region, with a subtle eastward track through the night.
However, most areas east of KLBF to KANW may expect LLWS through
12z. Through the afternoon, light west to southwest winds are
expected. Another round of showers and thunderstorms may develop in
the late afternoon to evening, with low confidence in direct impacts
to KLBF or KVTN at this time.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Richie