392
FXUS63 KLBF 271925
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
225 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures are expected to remain mostly below average to
  end August and remain cooler through the beginning of
  September.

- Near daily chances of precipitation are expected across the
  region through the weekend.

- The best rain potential will be this weekend, where heavy
  rainfall is possible across most of western and north central
  Nebraska.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Showers and thunderstorms are forming off the higher terrain this
afternoon and are expected to continue tracking eastward into the
region. General cloudiness today has somewhat limited our
instability across the region, and as these storms begin to enter
the lower instability they are expected to weaken. Showers are
likely to track across western and southwestern Nebraska this
evening, into the early morning hours. Based on latest trends and
guidance, have trimmed PoPs across the Sandhills and north central
Nebraska overnight, but keep PoPs across the southwest.

Though conditions stay generally cloudy on Thursday, a few breaks in
the clouds should allow for better warming throughout the afternoon.
Temperatures climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s across the
region, which still remains slightly cooler than average. As a cold
front tracks south across the region Thursday evening, showers and
thunderstorms are again possible, with best chances across northern
portions of the region. Very modest instability and weak shear
should limit the severe weather concerns, however, heavy rainfall is
possible with any of the stronger storms.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Closing out the month of August and looking into early September,
temperatures are expected to remain cooler than average. Currently,
model guidance is struggling to resolve an upper level low off the
Pacific Northwest, with both the GFS and ECMWF deterministic runs
bringing differing solutions. Even within such products as the GEFS
spaghetti plots, there is a lot of variance in the solutions as
early as Friday. With the larger hemispheric wave pattern favoring a
more progressive pattern, thinking that some of the more progressive
ensemble solutions may be more representative of anticipated weather
conditions. Assuming that the pattern favors a more progressive
pattern, then we can expected less amplitude in the trough-ridge
pattern, which should continue to favor near steady temperatures
through the period. As it stands, we are already experiencing below
average temperatures for late August/early September, when daily
highs are typically in the mid 80s. Current guidance continues to
favor highs in the mid to upper 70s and a few locations breaking
into the lower 80s to close out the month of August. Peaking into
early next week, as September starts, temperatures continue to favor
the cooler side, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. It is
worth mentioning that the 90th percentile temperatures for early
next week are near seasonal average, in the mid 80s. With that in
mind, will continue to keep the cooler temperatures in the forecast,
but as this complex pattern resolves, there is some potential to
return to more seasonal temperatures by Tuesday. Will continue to
keep an eye on forecast trends as well as the upper level pattern off
the Pacific Northwest.

With that caveat in mind, attention then turns to the precipitation
chances this weekend. Following along with the more progressive
solutions, a fairly active pattern sets up this weekend, bringing an
upper level high across the southern Plains, and a 200 mb trough
across the Desert Southwest. This pattern will allow for a strong
plume of monsoonal moisture to track into the region, providing a
deep, moist profile this weekend. Precipitation chances increase
this weekend, with highest chances from Friday night through Sunday
morning. Given the ample moisture available, heavy rainfall is
possible at times this weekend. However, ensembles still struggle to
have consistency for amounts this weekend, as well as coverage. The
European and Canadian ensembles favoring the progressive pattern are
much more optimistic on rainfall across western Nebraska this
weekend, with both having a 50 to 60 percent chance of bringing at
least a half inch of total rainfall this weekend. Notably, the
European ensembles bring around a 40 percent chance of total
rainfall this weekend exceeding one inch. Meanwhile, the GEFS
ensembles only bring at most a 30 percent chance of half an inch of
rain and generally less than a ten percent chance of exceeding one
inch. A brief reprieve from precipitation is expected Monday and
Tuesday. By Wednesday into late week, northwesterly flow is expected
to return across the region, so we may notice an upward trend in
precipitation chances starting by the middle of next week.
Confidence in cooler, wetter weather is increasing, however, as the
Climate Prediction Center is expecting cooler, wetter weather to
persist in the 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

MVFR conditions are expected to continue across southwest Nebraska
and the Sandhills this afternoon, as a deck of stratus remains
across the region. May begin to see some return to VFR this evening
for a few hours, before conditions rapidly drop into IFR and LIFR
conditions overnight. However, across north central Nebraska, VFR
conditions are expected to prevail, as the region stays just north
of the lower stratus ceilings. Showers and thunderstorms may track
across southwest Nebraska tonight, bringing another shot of moisture
to the area. Confidence is low in showers at KLBF, so have kept
mention out of the overnight period. However, the recent moisture
and light winds overnight may bring fog development across southwest
and south central Nebraska. Fog in combination with low ceilings
brings LIFR potential overnight, with a return to MVFR by mid
morning, as fog dissipates.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Richie