754
FXUS63 KLBF 121712
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1112 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions persist with temperatures warming back to above
normal through the first half of the weekend.

- A return to fire concerns are possible by Friday as dry conditions
persist, stronger winds develop, and afternoon RH values drop to
near 20 percent.

- The next system to potentially bring precipitation arrives early
next week, although confidence in precipitation type and track still
remains uncertain.

- Cooler, near to below normal temperatures return for Sunday and
into the beginning of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 320 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Surface high pressure remains in place through the end of the week
and into the first half of the weekend. Temperatures will remain
above normal through Saturday with widespread temperatures in the
upper 50s to mid 60s returns today before a surge of warm air
advection with 850 mb temperatures in the 15 to 18 C range pushes
into the region for the end of the week. This will allow for most
locations to see surface high temperatures in the low 70s on both
Thursday and Friday. Highs return to the 60s on Saturday, still 10
degrees above normal. Lows will drop into the mid to upper 30s
tonight with lows only dropping into the upper 30s to low 40s on
Thursday and Friday nights.

This period of drier conditions and a return to above normal
temperatures will also bring a return to fire concerns. At this
time, afternoon RH values will remain above 25 percent through
Wednesday, but the slight warmer temperatures on Thursday will also
bring some drier air to the region. However, with light winds on
Thursday, would only expect a return to elevated conditions,
especially west of US-83. A similar set-up is expected on Friday,
but some stronger wind gusts up to 25 mph across northern Nebraska
is possible. A overlap of RH values near 20 percent and these
stronger winds could result in another elevated or near-critical day
on Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 320 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

The latest model trends continue to trend precipitation for the
weekend system out of western and north central Nebraska. Therefore,
continue from the previous shift the dry forecast through Sunday.

The next potential for precipitation arrives early next week where
widespread precipitation could impact much of the forecast area. A
strong shortwave trough will push off the Rockies on Monday moving
across Nebraska Monday night and into Tuesday. While the confidence
in development and precipitation type is still uncertain, if this
trough can develop, it will bring widespread precipitation to the
region. For now, precipitation type appears to be mostly rain, but
there is a chance for some rain/snow or all snow early Monday
morning (before sunrise) when temperatures remain near or below
freezing. Will continue to monitor this system over the upcoming
days.

For temperatures, a weak frontal system and associated trough will
push across the northern US by Saturday evening bringing a return to
cooler air on Saturday night and Sunday. Temperatures will drop back
to near normals with overnight lows in the low to mid 30s on both
Saturday and Sunday nights and highs in the 50s for Sunday. A
stronger push of cold air advection behind the second trough for the
start of next week will significantly drop highs for the first part
of next week back into the mid 40s to low 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1112 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north
central Nebraska today and tonight. Light southerly surface winds,
generally under 10 knots are expected through the afternoon. By
evening, winds become light and variable across the region.
Throughout the afternoon and overnight, a higher cloud layer moves
across the region, however no impacts are expected to aviation.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Richie