297
FXUS63 KLBF 151730
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1230 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dense Fog Advisory this morning

- Warmer today with a chance of severe thunderstorms across
  western Nebraska

- Chance of widespread showers and thunderstorms Thursday

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 430 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

The main concern in the short term is the dense fog this
morning and the chance for severe thunderstorms late this afternoon
and evening. As the warm front continues to lift northward the dense
fog continues to spread northward. After collaboration with
surrounding offices and satellite imagery showing fog spreading
northward into north central Nebraska and towards the border, the
Dense Fog Advisory was expanded to include all of the forecast area.
The Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 11am CDT.

Focus then turns to the chance for showers and thunderstorms with
the chance of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The
chance for severe thunderstorms will be fairly marginal. Low level
moisture will continue to increase with a southerly flow however MU
CAPE will only be around 700 to 1000 J/kg in the late afternoon and
evening generally west of HWY 61. However, shear will be modest
around 45 to 50 kts along with mid-level lapse rates around 7 to 7.5
C/km, would expect if any thunderstorm does become severe the main
concern will be large hail with a secondary threat of damaging wind
gusts. Don`t expect much of a threat past HWY 61 as CAPE values
really drop off and are generally below 300 J/kg.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 430 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

A cold front will move through on Thursday across the northwest
Sandhills, ahead of the front WAA with southerly flow will have
temperatures in the 70s. Expect widespread showers and
thunderstorms to develop with the greatest potential for
significant rainfall amounts near the boundary, generally along
and east of HWY 83. QPF values will be around half an inch or
greater. There will also be a potential for marginal threat for
severe thunderstorms across far southwest Nebraska. CAA
increases on Saturday and temperatures will cool down briefly
with highs in the 50s. Lows will be in the lower 30s across
northwest Nebraska, will have to monitor to see if temperatures
continue to trend cooler where a freeze headline may be needed.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

A low pressure system is located over northeastern Colorado with a
stationary front tracking across the Sandhills this afternoon. North
of the stationary front, IFR to LIFR conditions are expected to
persist, with a dense stratus shield causing low ceilings and patch
fog continuing to cause visibility issues. For areas south of the
front, VFR conditions are observed and expected to persist through
the TAF period. The nearby low will also cause gusty southerly winds
throughout the afternoon and evening across most of the region.
Tonight, as the front lifts north, should see some improvement in
conditions across northern Nebraska. However, a strong low level jet
develops, causing LLWS concerns across all of western and north
central Nebraska this evening through mid morning.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...Richie