696
FXUS63 KLBF 140531
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1231 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginal chance of severe thunderstorms tonight and Friday  night

- Heavy rainfall will be possible through the weekend and could
  see some flood potential

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible late Saturday and
  Sunday night. While the probability is low, isolated large
  hail and damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out.

- Below normal high temperatures will continue across the region
  into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 614 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

The main concern in the short term will be the chance for showers
and thunderstorms late tonight and again Friday night, along with
the threat for heavy rain and flooding potential. A layer of stratus
continues across the northern Sandhills into portions of western
Nebraska. This has setup a little boundary over the day of
differential heating, across southwest Nebraska where there could be
the potential for a storm to develop along that boundary and become
strong to severe, this is generally south of I-80 corridor, as
anywhere north of there has had limited sunshine and will have
limited instability. However, confidence is low in thunderstorm
development this afternoon into the early evening as shear is
marginal. The greater concern will be later tonight as the LLJ
strengthens, generally near or after midnight with overnight
convection, near and north of the frontal boundary, generally
affecting southwest Nebraska into north central Nebraska. The main
concern in the overnight will be the chance for heavy rainfall, see
hydro section for additional details.

Overnight convection is expected to end before sunrise on Friday as
most of the convection should move eastward by then. For Friday
cooler temperatures will continue with temperatures in the
upper 70s to low 80s. There will be another chance of
thunderstorms on Friday, some of which may be strong to severe,
but again will generally be a late show, with the "earlier"
convection starting mid-evening, but the majority of the
widespread convection holding off til near midnight and onward
into Saturday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 614 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Upper level ridging will continue to slowly back westward into the
desert southwest by early next week and transition into more of a
zonal western flow by mid next week. PWAT values continue to be
abnormally high through the weekend due to a continual southwest
flow aloft of monsoonal moisture riding along the upper ridge. ENS
continues to suggest PWAT values nearing 2.0" across most of the
region Saturday and the eastern part of our CWA in central Nebraska
Sunday. These values are above the 90th percentile in climatological
normals for this time of year. To take advantage of the high
moisture are multiple shortwaves forecasted to move across Nebraska
late Saturday and Sunday. This should help initiate some isolated
showers and thunderstorms as well as a cold front moving southward
by the mid to late evening each day. Guidance currently suggests a
50 - 70 percent chance of southwest into north central Nebraska
receiving greater than a quarter of an inch Saturday evening,
with that probability dropping to 30 - 40 percent of receiving
greater than a half an inch. Sunday is a similar story with
probabilities dropping slightly at 40 - 60 percent chance of
greater than a quarter of an inch across southwest Nebraska and
areas west of Highway 83 and south of Highway 2. Will have to
monitor storms closely for any training of convection that could
cause localized flooding with soils already saturated from
previous precipitation.

As the ridge backs to the west, flow aloft becomes more westerly
to northwesterly. While forecasted PWAT values will decrease
some early next week, ENS still have values reaching 1.25 - 1.5
inches across portions of north central Nebraska. This would
still be around the 75th percentile and be sufficient for a set
up of at least isolated thunderstorms. There is still
uncertainty if any thunderstorms late this weekend and early
next week could become severe but will be closely monitored and
refined as such days approach.

Temperatures will continue to be on the cooler side, remaining 5 to
10 degrees below normal through Monday with highs in the upper 70s
to low 80s. Highs will then slowly return to near normal for the
eastern Panhandle and southwest Nebraska mid next week with highs in
the mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Thunderstorms will impact southwest into central and north
central Nebraska terminals through sunrise, with brief MVFR
visibilities and gusty, erratic winds. Otherwise, widespread low
stratus and patchy fog will lead to widespread MVFR/IFR CIGs and
visibility. Some threat for locally LIFR CIGs is possible as
well. Gradual improvements back to VFR are expected for all
terminals by early this afternoon.

Winds become light and variable this morning outside of
thunderstorms, at 5kts or less. Winds then become southerly this
afternoon, at 5 to 10kts.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 614 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Heavy rainfall will be possible tonight into the weekend,
with western and southwest Nebraska outlooked by a slight risk for
excessive rainfall and the rest of the forecast area in a marginal
risk for excessive rainfall. Monsoonal moisture will remain in place
the next several days and PWATs will be very high, ranging from near
1.25 to 1.75 inches across the area, leading to higher confidence
that any storms that do develop, having heavy rainfall rates. A
flood watch may be needed tomorrow into the weekend, depending on
how tonight`s rainfall sets up, as there is still some uncertainty
as to how widespread convection tonight will be and how long storms
will be in the area, although tonight`s setup is less likely to see
training of storms, given the high PWATs, even a single storm could
drop a substantial amount of qpf. One thing to note, will be
the soil saturation over several days of rainfall over the same
areas, although areas like the Sandhills can generally hold
around 4 to 5 inches of rainfall before flooding issues arrive,
a series of daily 1 to 2 inch amounts, could lead to flooding
concerns as we had into Friday night and Saturday night with
additional heavy rainfall expected, thus will need to monitor
closely rainfall amounts tonight. Areas south of the interstate
will take much less and will need to monitor flood prone
"flashy" watershed areas, small streams and creeks as well with
each convective system the next several days for flooding/flash
flooding.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...MRS
AVIATION...Brown
HYDROLOGY...Gomez