540
FXUS63 KLBF 290433
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1133 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures are expected to remain mostly below average
  through the end of next week.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Friday evening
  across the region. The main hazards will be heavy rainfall,
  large hail, and severe wind gusts.

- Heavy rainfall persists this weekend, with most of the region
  expected to receive wetting rainfall. The forecast then trends
  drier heading into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 304 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

A very similar set up to yesterday is in play, with showers and
thunderstorms developing off the higher terrain to the west. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected to again track eastward, reaching
portions of western Nebraska this evening. Thunderstorms are
expected to be on the stronger side across portions of eastern
Wyoming and far western Nebraska, however, as they encounter more
stable air this evening, expecting that storms will weaken as they
enter the eastern Nebraska Panhandle. Abundant moisture and calm
winds overnight bring the potential for fog redevelopment,
especially across portions of southwest and south central Nebraska.
Given the very similar set up, thinking we see a near repeat of fog
intensity overnight, with locations down to one mile or less.

As we head into tomorrow, expecting a bit of clearing in the cloud
cover, allowing for warmer temperatures across the region. Highs are
expected to climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s across most of the
region, which still remains under our normal seasonal averages which
are in the mid 80s. An upper level high over Texas will continue to
provide deep, monsoonal moisture over the Plains, with deep layer
moisture expected across most of western and north central Nebraska.
Marginal surface based CAPE values, around 1000 to 1500 J/kg, are
expected to build by the late afternoon, with around 30 to 35 knots
of deep layer shear. As a low pressure system deepens across western
Nebraska, storms are expected to develop along a frontal boundary
across the Panhandle and western Sandhills. Thunderstorms are
expected to grow into a multi-cell threat, with some potential for a
weak line of storms to develop. With the ample moisture across the
region, the main threat looks to be heavy rainfall at this time.
However, if some of the storms can take advantage of the meager
CAPE, there is a low threat for large hail and severe wind gusts
with the stronger cells. With this in mind, a Marginal Risk (Level 1
of 5) for severe storms has been expanded across more of southwest
Nebraska, into the Sandhills, for tomorrow afternoon and evening.
Additionally, there is a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall, which
could lead to localized flooding concerns in lower lying areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 304 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Heading into the weekend, we still have a fairly complex upper level
pattern to deal with, as an upper level low sits off the Pacific
Northwest. This continues to give deterministic guidance a challenge
on resolving the upper level flow as it comes across the
northwestern CONUS. However, the upper level high across Texas is
expected to remain mostly in place, continuing to provide a deep,
monsoonal moisture across western and north central Nebraska. With
the consistency in the upper level high, ensemble guidance has come
into better agreement today, with both the European and GEFS
ensembles highlighting portions of north central Nebraska in an 80
to 90 percent chance of total weekend rainfall exceeding half an
inch. The European remains far more bullish across the region,
highlighting at least a 50 percent chance of total weekend
precipitation exceeding half an inch across most of western and
north central Nebraska, with the main exception being portions of
the Panhandle. The European remains more aggressive than the other
ensembles on amounts exceeding one inch, as well, with portions of
north central Nebraska around an 80 to 90 percent chance. This is
further backed by the Extreme Forecast Index and Shift of Tails
pointing to fairly high confidence in anomalous rain amounts
Saturday afternoon. With all this in play, the Weather Prediction
Center keeps an Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall across most of
Nebraska on Saturday, with the eastern half of the state in a
Marginal Risk for Sunday. Precipitation is expected to last from
Friday afternoon`s storms through late Sunday night, possibly into
early Monday morning. With the monsoonal moisture available,
thinking most of the region should see at least wetting
precipitation this weekend, with some locations receiving some heavy
amounts. Will need to keep an eye on flooding potential this
weekend, especially it rain rates remain on the higher side.

As rain moves out of the area on Monday morning, the pattern is
expected to shift to a drier pattern for a few days, which may allow
some brief warming early week. Forecast temperatures have slightly
trended down, likely in response to the rain and general cloudiness,
however forecast highs climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Tuesday looks to be the warmest day of the week, however, our
typical highs remain around the 90th percentile of forecast highs,
so we likely favor remaining below average through the week.
Wednesday, another cold front tracks into the region, which should
continue to keep forecast highs below average. For now, looking like
late week remains in the low to mid 70s, however, much depends on
the evolution of the upper level flow.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1124 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Expecting low ceilings to once again fill in across the southern
Sandhills and portions of southwest Nebraska the rest of tonight.
MVFR to local IFR conditions are expected. Otherwise, expect
VFR conditions to prevail across most of northern Nebraska. It
is possible that a few hours of MVFR ceilings could move
northward for a couple of hours after daybreak Friday morning.
Light winds are expected at all locations.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulik/Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Taylor