217
FXUS63 KLBF 191119
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
619 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today and
  tomorrow. Today, the main threat will be early in the day,
  from the lingering overnight storms. Locally heavy rainfall,
  strong winds, and large hail are expected to be the main
  threats.

- Thursday, the main threat for thunderstorms will be areas east
  of Highway 83 in the afternoon and evening hours. At this
  time, strong wind gusts and large hail appear to be the main
  threats.

- Temperatures increase for late week and the weekend, along
  with a continued threat for near daily thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 246 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

A frontal boundary continues to track south across South Dakota,
providing ample forcing for thunderstorms, despite the overnight
conditions. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints remain in the
upper 60s. The 00z KLBF sounding reveals quite a deep layer of
moisture in the environment, resulting in a PWAT value of 1.24
inches. The sounding also reveals abundant instability in the
environment with strong deep layer shear. Should any storms initiate
in this environment, the environment should remain capable of
supporting discrete cells initially. However, as convection
continues to track across the region, and as we approach dawn,
expecting this will eventually become more of a multi-cell threat,
with discrete cells still remaining possible. Given this
environmental set up, the main threats will likely favor large hail,
especially with stronger cells, and strong wind gusts with any
storm. However, the ample moisture will also support a threat for
locally heavy rainfall. All this to say, a busy overnight period is
expected, with the severe weather threat continuing into the morning
hours. Overnight, the two main corridors of thunderstorms are
expected to be areas along and south of Interstate 80 and areas
along and east of Highway 83 across north central into central
Nebraska. After sunrise, though, the main area of thunderstorm
activity is expected to remain just across portions of north central
and central Nebraska east of Highway 83. Storms are expected to
linger through the morning hours, before eventually pushing out of
the region to the east.

After the morning thunderstorms track out of the region, most of the
region is expected to see dry conditions throughout the day. The
exception would be the far eastern portions of the CWA, where
lingering showers and thunderstorms may persist into the afternoon.
However, do not believe there will be much, if any, severe threat
with the activity lingering into the late morning to early
afternoon. Otherwise, skies begin to clear throughout the day, with
near seasonal to slightly cooler than seasonal highs. For reference,
highs this time of year are typically around 87 to 88 degrees.
Current forecast highs are mostly in the 80s, with portions of north
central Nebraska in the upper 70s (where precipitation and cloud
cover may lag behind). This brief period of quieter weather, largely
driven by a surface high pressure system, is expected to last
overnight and through thursday morning.

Thursday, another low pressure system tracks into the region,
bringing another surface boundary. Will again see dewpoints pushing
into the mid to upper 60s east of Highway 83, providing ample
moisture for additional showers and thunderstorms. With daytime
heating pushing highs into the upper 80s to lower 90s, should see
sufficient instability building across the region, though this does
appear to be greatest for areas east of Highway 83, where deeper
moisture remains. This will again set up an environment capable of
producing strong to severe thunderstorms. Given the current forecast
conditions, cannot rule out the potential for the strongest cells to
produce large hail and strong wind gusts. However, will continue to
keep a close eye on how this all continues to evolve over the next
24 to 36 hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 246 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Upper ridging then begins to establish across the Rockies and
amplifies into the weekend. This brings increasing warm advection,
with highs return to the upper 80s to lower 90s for late week and
this weekend. The warmest day look to be Friday, where portions of
western and southwest Nebraska may approach the lower to middle 90s.
The threat for storms also looks to persist into Friday and beyond,
with ample flow aloft keeping strong deep layer shear in place.
Friday looks of particular concern across portions of the Sandhills,
where backed southeasterly surface winds suggests some threat for
increased low-level shear as well. With deep moisture remaining in
place, a favorable overlap of instability and shear exists for
severe storms across the area Friday afternoon and evening. Some
threat for severe storms may persist into the weekend as well.
Guidance then diverges somewhat into next week, though still point
towards continued northwest flow aloft. This suggests that the
threat for near daily storms may persist across the area into next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 620 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Low stratus and patchy fog persists for terminals near and east
of HWY 83 into late this morning, with continued MVFR/IFR CIGs
and visibilities. In addition, scattered thunderstorms will
continue across north central Nebraska through early this
afternoon, with a continued threat for brief MVFR visibilities
and gusty, erratic winds. By early afternoon, VFR conditions are
expected to prevail for all terminals into tonight.

Winds become northerly this afternoon, at 5 to 10kts. Winds then
become southerly overnight, at 5kts or less.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...Brown