441
FXUS63 KLBF 040920
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
320 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions are likely this afternoon for
  a large portion of western and north central Nebraska. Very
  warm temperatures, low relative humidities and gusty winds are
  likely mainly west of a line from Ainsworth to North Platte.

- Elevated fire weather conditions are possible Wednesday and
  Friday with near critical fire weather conditions possible
  Thursday.

- Mild and dry conditions will persist through the next 7 days
  with a cooldown expected Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 320 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

H5 analysis tonight had a broad low amplitude ridge over most
of the CONUS. High pressure was anchored over southeastern Texas
and the ridge extended to the north northwest into northern
Montana. West of this ridge, a shortwave trough was present off
the coast of Oregon and Washington State. West of this feature,
closed low pressure was located over southern portions of the
Gulf of Alaska. Elsewhere, low pressure was located over Hudson
Bay with a trough extending south into the Mid-Atlantic States
and portions of New England. A weak disturbance was noted over
western Colorado and this has led to mid and high level
cloudiness overnight. This cloud cover extended from southern
Colorado, east into Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, and northern
Missouri. At the surface overnight, low pressure was located
over central Montana with another low over western South Dakota.
A stationary front extended east of the western South Dakota
low into southeastern South Dakota. South of the front, winds
were southerly overnight and 2 AM CST temperatures ranged from
34 degrees at Grant, to 46 degrees at Gordon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 320 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

Surface low pressure will deepen across southwestern South
Dakota today, along a stationary frontal boundary situated from
the northern Black Hills into northeastern South Dakota. South
of this low and frontal boundary, westerly winds will increase
later this morning in response to the deepening low. By early
afternoon, frequent wind gusts to around 25 to 30 MPH look
probable west of a line from Valentine to North Platte. This
trend continues to be supported by the latest GFS and NAM12
bufkit soundings, as well as the NBM ensembles which have a >
50% chance of wind gusts above 25 MPH. The westerly winds will
also bring drier air into the forecast area this afternoon with
surface dew points in the 20s, generally along and west of an
Ainsworth to North Platte line. High temperatures this afternoon
will reach well into the middle and upper 70s with some
readings eclipsing the 80 degree mark over far southwestern
Nebraska. With these highs and dew points in the 20s, a broad
swath of sub 15% relative humidities remain likely west of a
line from Valentine to North Platte. Based on little to no
changes in model trends with today`s forecast, the inherited red
flag warning will remain in place and no expansion is expected
ATTM. The surface low, will ride east across South Dakota early
this evening, ending up over southwestern Minnesota by 03z
Wednesday. This will allow a cold front to enter northwestern
portions of the forecast area early evening, traversing the
remainder of the forecast area by 06z. There will be a window of
gusty northerly winds immediately behind the front with winds
decreasing to under 10 MPH toward 12z Wednesday. Lows tonight
will remain relatively mild for this time of year with readings
in the lower to middle 30s. Surface high pressure, will track
southeast from southern South Dakota into central then eastern
Nebraska Wednesday. Winds will be light across the eastern
forecast area and the core of the cooler airmass will reside
over northeastern Nebraska Wednesday. This will limit highs to
the lower 50s in the O`Neill area. Across western portions of
the forecast area, winds will shift around to the south on the
back side of the exiting high. Winds may even approach 15 to 20
MPH in the eastern Panhandle Wednesday afternoon as highs reach
into the lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 320 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

Surface low pressure will begin to deepen over western South
Dakota Wednesday night. Westerly winds will increase overnight
behind a warm front. This feature is expected to make it into
eastern Nebraska Thursday morning. Winds south of the low, will
become gusty Thursday afternoon and the latest NBM ensemble
forecast has a better than 50% chance of wind gusts greater than
25 MPH generally west of a line from O`Neill to North Platte.
Highs Thursday will reach into the mid to upper 60s with minimum
RH reaching 25 to 35 percent. ATTM, the threat for critical
fire weather conditions is very low, however gusty winds, full
sun and RH`s around 25 percent west of a Valentine to North
Platte line, will lead to near critical fire weather conditions
Thursday afternoon. Will continue to hit the threat in the FWF
and HWO. A weak disturbance will usher in slightly cooler air
for Friday with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Winds will
be northwesterly at 10 to 20 MPH, leading to elevated fire
weather conditions Friday afternoon. Ridging aloft will amplify
along the west coast Saturday while a broad trough of low
pressure deepens over eastern Canada and the upper midwest. This
feature will force a back door cold front into the forecast
area with subzero H85 temps reaching the forecast area Saturday
and Sunday. The deterministic GFS does develop precipitation
across the northeastern forecast area Saturday into Saturday
evening. The latest EC soln is farther north with its main band
of precipitation, keeping it northeast of the forecast area.
Based on the latest NBM ensembles, locations over northern
Nebraska have less than a 10% chance of measurable precipitation
Saturday. That being said, a dry forecast will continue into
the weekend. After Sunday, ridging will migrate east into the
intermountain west and Rockies. This will lead to warmer highs
in the upper 40s and upper 50s for Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1120 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

VFR ceilings will remain in place through Tuesday evening. Mostly
clear skies are expected across the region with no precipitation.
The only concern will be some stronger westerly winds by Tuesday
afternoon. The strongest gusts will be mainly across the Panhandle
and far southwest Nebraska where gusts up to 35 mph will be
possible. Further to the east and north, gusts up to 25 mph are
still expected. Winds diminish after sunset dropping to below 10
knots by early evening.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ this morning to 7
PM CST /6 PM MST/ this evening for NEZ204-206-210.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Kulik