395
FXUS63 KLBF 180940
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
340 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- As Monday`s system exits the area, dry conditions and mild
  temperatures return for today and Wednesday.

- Another storm system approaches the area Thursday into
  Friday. Accumulating rain is possible for areas south of I-80,
  though confidence in this remains low.

- Dry conditions return for the weekend and early next week,
  with highs in the 50s to near 60 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 338 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Currently, surface low pressure has begun to exit the area into
eastern Nebraska, with precipitation having exited the area earlier
this morning. Fog persists across much of the northern Sandhills and
central Nebraska. Temperatures range from the middle 30s in
northwest Nebraska to the upper 40s in southwest Nebraska.

For today, expect quieter conditions in the wake of the exiting
surface low. Weak cold advection persists into this afternoon, as
northerly winds continue ahead of approaching surface high pressure.
This, combined with continued cloudiness, will keep highs in the low
to middle 40s along and east of Highway 183. Further west, breaks in
the low cloud deck should allow highs to climb into the 50s. By
tonight, surface high pressure settles into eastern Kansas, with
light south winds developing across the area on the western
periphery of this feature. The light winds, combined with skies
beginning to clear, could lead to patchy fog south of I-80 early
Wednesday morning as temperatures fall into the low 30s.

Warm advection strengthens Wednesday, as surface low pressure
deepens across eastern Wyoming.By Wednesday afternoon, this surface
low will move east into south central South Dakota, dragging a
surface trough to near Highway 83. Ahead of this trough, southwest
winds allow temperatures to return to the upper 50s to near 60.
Behind this trough, westerly downslope winds boost highs into the
lower to middle 60s across much of the Sandhills.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 338 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Attention then turns to the next system expected to approach the
area Thursday into Friday. Aloft, an upper low will begin to eject
out of the Four Corners Thursday afternoon, reaching southwest
Kansas by Friday morning. At the surface, low pressure is expected
to drift across far southern Kansas through the day Friday.
Unfortunately, guidance has continued to come into better
agreement with respect to this late week precipitation. Both
deterministic and ensemble means point towards significant rain
along and south of I- 70 across Kansas, with accumulations
quickly dropping with northward extent. This restricts amounts
locally to <0.50" along the HWY 6 corridor and <0.25" from I-80
to HWY 6. Little to no accumulations would be expected north of
I-80 should this track continue to be preferred. Guidance also
suggests this precip will all fall as rain, negating any wintry
impacts across the area.

Drier conditions are then expected into the weekend, as northwest
flow establishes aloft. Persistent warm advection boosts highs back
into the upper 50s to low 60s and should lead to a pleasant weekend
across the area. Confidence then wanes into early next week, largely
driven by the evolution of a southern stream trough. This upper low
could lead to additional precipitation across the area early to
middle next week. With increasing holiday travel, this will need
to be monitored closely.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1208 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Fog and expanding low stratus will hamper aviation operations
through the overnight. Expect periodic VFR with degrading
conditions to MVFR and eventually IFR for most terminals across
the forecast area. Believe northern Nebraska will see LIFR
conditions as well which should persist through daybreak.

During the day Tuesday, CIGs should improve slightly though it
appears likely that MVFR conditions will dominate. Perhaps
southwest Nebraska could see a return to VFR though confidence
in this is low. Winds will vary considerably through the next 24
hours as low pressure lifts north and east through the area.
Even so, speeds are likely to remain limited to 10 to 15 knots
outside of brief gusts at LBF closer to 20 knots.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CST this morning for NEZ026>029-
038.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...NMJ