534
FXUS63 KLBF 131726
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1226 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Stratus and a cooler airmass across the region today will
  bring cooler highs as low as 65 to the upper 60s across much
  of western and central Nebraska.

- Chances for showers and a few thunderstorms will increase
  tonight into Monday morning, especially across north central
  Nebraska.

- Thunderstorm chances return to the south by late Monday
  afternoon.

- Additional daily chances for showers and thunderstorms mid-
  week through the end of the week

- Cooler temperatures through the week into the early part of
  the weekend

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 217 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Today, a warm front will lift into central KS extending back into
southeast WY. This will bring an increase in lower and mid level
moisture. Low stratus will overspread southwest and central NE this
morning and persist through the afternoon. This will lead to a much
cooler day, with highs only from 65 to the upper 60s across the
central Sandhills into portions of southwest NE. Went below NBM highs
a few degrees. Far western and southwest areas should reach the mid
70s, where stratus will erode. Also a slight chance for showers this
morning across the east. An upper ridge axis will extend across
western NE early afternoon with southwest flow across Rockies. A
disturbance located from southeast into central WY will move into
the panhandle by late afternoon.

Tonight, a LLJ increases across NE into SD. Isentropic lift will
increase overnight with increasing POPS, especially across nctrl NE.
Chance POPS in light rain showers will be mainly north of Highway 2,
with likely POPs after midnight across nctrl NE. Instability will be
very limited, though isolated embedded thunderstorms are possible.
QPFs will be very light from a trace to near a tenth of an inch far
northern NE.

Monday, an upper trough will move from MT and WY into the Dakotas,
as an upper trough extends back into the Desert Southwest. This will
bring a west-southwest flow in the mid and upper levels. A warm
front will reside to our southeast from northwest KS into southwest
IA. This will be a focus for strong to severe storms. At this time,
the threat remains southeast of the area. After morning chances for
showers and a few thunderstorms, chances for showers and
thunderstorms will exist across southwest and central NE by late
afternoon. Highs will be much warmer from the mid 80s, with near 90
southwest.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 217 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

A cold front passage late Monday will lead to low end chances
for showers and thunderstorms in the overnight, mainly across
southern Nebraska. Tuesday will be the coolest day of the week
as the cooler air mass behind the cold front will keep
temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s. For Wednesday WAA
across western Nebraska will moderate temperatures back into the
low 80s, while the rest of the Sandhills into north central
Nebraska will remain in the upper 60s to 70s. Thursday into the
first part of the weekend, temperatures will remain cooler near
seasonable to slightly below seasonable with highs in the 70s
and lows in the upper 40s to low 50s.

As far as precipitation chances through the week, there will a
series of weak disturbances that move through the region mid-week
through the end of the week with daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms, at this time coverage remains uncertain, but less
likely to see any widespread precipitation. At this time the better
chances for more widespread precipitation will be south into
northern KS near the frontal boundary. There is however a stronger
trof that will move through late Thursday into Friday and at this
time looks to be the best chance of scattered to widespread
precipitation chances.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Widespread low stratus will persist today and tonight, leading
to widespread MVFR/IFR CIGs. In addition, patchy fog/drizzle
will lead to periods of MVFR/IFR visibilities tonight and
tomorrow morning. A gradual improvement back to VFR then expected
tomorrow afternoon across much of western and north central
Nebraska, though may not occur until after the end of the valid
period.

Winds remain southeasterly today and tonight, with gusts of 25
to 35kts for all terminals.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...Brown