059
FXUS63 KLBF 171955
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
255 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Still some severe threat this afternoon into early this
  evening but the threat is lower than the past several days.

- A bit below normal for high temperatures Wednesday behind a
  cold front.

- Heat becomes a concern by the of the week, especially Friday
  through Sunday when highs in the 90s to lower 100s are
  expected. Some areas may reach or exceed Heat Advisory
  criteria.

- A strong cold front is forecast to bring a cool down to the
  area early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Ongoing thunderstorm activity across northwest Kansas is responsible
for a large cirrus shield across the area this afternoon. Low-level
lapse rates are poor across the area due to the cloud coverage.
Still large scale lift will continue as a weak shortwave approaches
the area late this afternoon and this evening. This will help
provide some support for scattered elevated shower and thunderstorm
development through the late afternoon and evening hours. Stronger,
more surface based convection to our west across eastern Wyoming and
northeast Colorado, will likely struggle as it moves into a less
favorable environment across the area. Latest runs of the WoFS
support this idea with some members showing scattered activity
and some do not. Overall nothing real organized into our area
through late this afternoon. The best focus overall for severe
will be well to the south across Kansas. A reinforced stationary
boundary from last night`s convection is analyzed across
southern Kansas. Supercells and all modes of severe weather are
likely across this area near the boundary.

Most of the shower/thunder activity should exit the area by late
this evening. Skies should gradually begin clearing from the west
after midnight. Lows will will be a bit cooler than past night as
lower dew points settle into the region. Still, lows will be near
normal for this time of year in the 50s.

Upper level ridging will begin to expand northward across the
Rockies Wednesday. Downstream from the building ridge, northwest
flow aloft will become established across the area. Drier air in the
mid and upper levels will filter into the area bringing an and to
the chances for showers/thunder. Steep low-level lapse rates and
fairly cool temperatures aloft will yield late morning and afternoon
fair weather cumulus clouds to develop. Those quickly dissipate
Wednesday night after loss of daytime heating.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Heights will rise as ridging aloft builds across the western CONUS
through the weekend. This upper level ridging will translate
eastward across the region through Sunday. This will likely bring an
end to the severe weather/convection threat but increase the heat
threat. Temperatures and heat indicies reach near advisory levels
(>100 degrees) Friday and Saturday across portions of the area. The
ridge appears to begin to break down the first of next week. As this
occurs a strong cold front pushes southeastward from the
northern Rockies into the plains Sunday night. This could bring
the next opportunity for organized convection to the area.
Temperatures will cool down as the front stalls across the area
next week. The front will likely serve as a focus for at least
scattered convection much of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Scattered showers and thunderstorms should gradually end tonight
across western and north central Nebraska. VFR conditions are
expected to persist and most all locations. Winds will be
variable, generally less than 15 mph.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Taylor