533
FXUS63 KLBF 140947
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
347 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The combination of near record temperatures (highs in upper
  70s to low 80s) and gusty west winds will lead to critical
  fire weather concerns for areas along and north of I-80 this
  afternoon.

- An approaching system brings a threat for precipitation
  across the area Sunday night into Monday. Confidence in
  precipitation types is low for now.

- An active weather pattern persists into middle and late week,
  with additional threats for precipitation possible across the
  area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 345 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

The primary concern for the short term will revolve around critical
fire weather conditions this afternoon for areas near and north of I-
80. Additional details are contained in the fire weather section
below.

For today, upper ridging (currently positioned overhead) will begin
to translate east of the area, as an upper low ejects east across
northern Saskatchewan/Manitoba. As associated surface low will eject
into northwestern Manitoba, with an associated surface trough
stretching south into the Plains. This surface trough will push east
through the Sandhills this morning, and into eastern Nebraska by
early afternoon. Behind this surface trough, westerly downslope flow
will strengthen north of I-80 and quickly boost temperatures this
afternoon. A very anomalously warm airmass is in place for today,
with H85 temperatures exceeding the 99th percentile climo. In fact,
the guidance consensus H85 temp of ~20C at North Platte by late
afternoon is more akin to July (Climo mean H85 temp of 20C at LBF in
mid-July) than mid-November. This all points to widespread near
record high temperatures across the area this afternoon. In fact,
the current forecast would break the existing high temperature
record at all four long term climate sites (North Platte, Valentine,
Broken Bow, Imperial). The one caveat to this will be scattered high
cloudiness, as moisture streams into the area aloft. This will
impact highs, but to what degree is uncertain. Believe the downslope
flow will promote enough mixing of the anomalously warm air aloft to
largely offset this, with clouds preventing even warmer highs
(low/mid 80s) from being achieved.

As temps soar this afternoon, they will combine with low humidity and
gusty west winds to lead to critical fire concerns this afternoon. See
no reason to change the inherited Red Flag Warning, with a period of
critical fire conditions looking increasingly likely. Did debate an
eastward expansion into portions of central and north central
Nebraska, though the positioning of the surface trough (and
associated winds) precludes this for now.

By tonight, aforementioned surface low pressure continues to eject
eastward towards Hudson bay, with a trailing cold front pushing into
the area early Saturday morning. This will usher in cooler highs for
Saturday, though still in the 60s and around 15-20 degrees above
average for mid-November. Fire concerns look to lessen tomorrow, as
humidity remains elevated and winds look to remain weak Saturday
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 345 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

One more mild day is in store across the area Sunday, as southerly
flow increases in response to strengthening lee cyclogenesis across
eastern Colorado. This will again allow highs to climb into the 60s
across the area. By Sunday night, an upper trough will eject east
out of the Rockies into the Plains. An associated surface low will
eject east across Kansas into Monday morning. At least scattered
precipitation is possible across the area in the deformation axis of
this surface low. Given time of day, some threat for a rain/snow mix
may exist, though confidence in this is low for now. This is tied to
the positioning of a backdoor cold front, with shallow colder air in
place across the area in some model solutions. Regardless, little to
no snow accumulations are expected at this time, though trends will
continue to be monitored.

The active pattern persists as we head into middle and late week,
with another upper low progged to eject eastwards into the southern
Plains Wednesday night through Friday. Guidance significantly
diverges with the track of this system, and this lends low
confidence for any precipitation locally. A very broad signal exists
in ensemble solutions as a result, with a wide area of ~30-50%
probabilities of >0.1" Thursday across much of western and north
central Nebraska. Until the evolution of synoptic features becomes
more clear, confidence in any precipitation will remain low. A
general lack of cold air in deterministic solutions suggests a
primarily liquid p-type for now. Temperatures look to return and
remain near average through much of next week, with highs generally
in the 40s each day.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1146 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

Light south to southwesterly winds will continue through
daybreak before becoming more westerly with increasing gusts.
The strongest of these gusts should remain confined to the
central/western Sandhills though cannot rule out gusts up to 30
knots at VTN with weaker winds expected at LBF. Skies should
become cloudy during the daytime though ceilings should remain
at or above 25kft AGL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 345 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

The combination of near record temperatures (highs in upper 70s to
low 80s), low humidity, and gusty west winds will lead to critical
fire weather conditions for areas near and north of I-80 this
afternoon. Poor humidity recovery this morning across the Sandhills
(50-60%) will lead to quickly falling humidity this afternoon, with
widespread minimum humidity values in the teens to low 20s. As west
winds strengthen north of I-80 this afternoon (westerly gusts 25 to
35 mph), a period of critical fire conditions is expected. By
tonight, increasing humidity will lessen the threat, though a wind
shift from west to northwest is expected early Saturday morning.

Fire concerns then lessen into the weekend and next week, as cooler
temperatures return to the area by Monday. In addition, wetting
moisture is possible across the area Sunday night into Monday,
though confidence in amounts is low for now.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 345 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Location    | Forecast High | Daily Record  | November All-Time Record |

North Platte      80          78 (1894,1990)     87 (11/6/2020)
Valentine         81          79 (1990)          86 (11/7/1999)
Broken Bow        80          79 (1999)          84 (11/3/2005)
Imperial          82          78 (1905)          85 (11/3/2020)

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ this morning to 6
PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for NEZ204-206-208.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...NMJ
FIRE WEATHER...Brown
CLIMATE...Brown