208
FXUS63 KLBF 222326
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
626 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across much
  of western and southwest Nebraska this evening and tonight. A
  few storms could be strong to severe, with damaging wind
  gusts, hail, and locally heavy rainfall.

- Well below average temperatures (highs in the 70s) persist
  into the weekend and early next week, along with near daily
  precipitation chances.

- A few strong to severe storms are possible across far
  southwest Nebraska Sunday, with a threat for damaging wind
  gusts and hail.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Currently, scattered showers and thunderstorms persist near and
north of Interstate 80. Persistent cloudiness has held temperatures
in the 70s across much of the area. A cold front has pushed into
southern Nebraska, with north-northeasterly winds prevailing in its
wake.

For this evening and tonight, expect increasing shower and
thunderstorm coverage across portions of western and southwest
Nebraska. This is within the broad post-frontal upslope flow
regime. Instability is maximized along and ahead of the surface
cold front, which has largely cleared the area to the east and
southeast. Still, meager elevated instability (MUCAPE ~500-1000
J/kg) lags behind the boundary across much of western and north
central Nebraska. This, combined with ample deep layer shear
(~30-40kts) will support a threat for a stronger storm or two,
with some threat for damaging wind gusts and hail. Some threat
for locally heavy rainfall may also develop across southwest
Nebraska, where training of thunderstorms will be possible
overnight. That said, the limited instability in place now
should continue to wane into tonight, and this should largely
keep the threat for severe storms limited. The showers and
thunderstorms persist through much of the night across western
Nebraska, before ending by late Saturday morning.

Surface high pressure then begins to spill into the Plains by
Saturday morning, ushering in a much drier and cooler airmass into
the area. This will lead to a much cooler day for all, with highs
struggling to leave the upper 70s. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will again be possible late Saturday evening and
overnight, as southerly flow modestly increases at H85. The showers
and storms will persist into early Sunday morning, before the low
level jet gradually veers.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

The aforementioned surface high pressure anchors over the
Central US into the weekend, keeping temperatures well below
average for much of next week. This translates to daily highs in
the 70s to lower 80s and lower humidity. This will be much
needed relief from recent heat, as temperatures remain 10 to 15
degrees below average through much of the upcoming week. Some
threat for thunderstorms will also exist nearly each day, as
northwest flow establishes aloft into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 626 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

For the KLBF terminal: Skies will be mainly cloudy into the
overnight with ceilings this evening ranging from 8000 to 12000
FT AGL. There will be a threat for light rain showers from 00z
to 04z this evening and will handle this with a tempo group.
Look for ceilings to become scattered around 20000 FT AGL and
remain there through Saturday afternoon. For the KVTN terminal:
Expect scattered clouds over the next 24 hours with ceilings
around 25000 FT AGL.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...Brown