795
FXUS63 KLBF 181855
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
155 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low to moderate confidence severe storms late this evening and
again on Sunday evening with large hail and damaging winds being the
primary threats.

- Low confidence in severe storms on Saturday evening with gusty
winds being the main threat.

- Moderate to high confidence in daily rain and thunderstorm
potential through mid-week.

- High confidence in cooler, below normal temperatures for Sunday
through Thursday.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 154 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Dry conditions are expected to continue through the rest of the
afternoon and into the early evening. Shower and thunderstorms will
develop by mid to late evening tonight across southwest Nebraska and
into portions of the Pahandle. A broad area of instability will be
present across the region by the evening which should allow for some
isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds being
the main threats.

Lingering showers continue into Saturday morning, especially across
the Panhandle and northern Nebraska but are not expected to be
severe until later on Saturday evening. An overall messy environment
with continued light showers will keep the severe risk low
throughout much of the day. Generally thinking the best severe
threat will be to the west of our forecast area, but some breaks in
the clouds across the Panhandle could provide just enough support
for some briefly severe thunderstorms across the eastern Panhandle
and southwest Nebraska by early evening. At this time, confidence in
severe potential is low, but cannot be ruled out completely.

Another round of potential severe storms returns by Sunday afternoon
as a trough pushes through the region. While instability remains
fairly weak with CAPE values generally below 1000 J/kg, low level
lapse rates near 7 C/km and shear values near 50 knots should
provide an environment favorable enough for some briefly severe
storms by late afternoon and early Sunday evening. Main threats with
these storms will be strong hail and damaging wind gusts, especially
in the more organized supercells. Overall, the window for severe
storms remains tight as storms will begin to weaken after sunset,
ending by 04Z to 06Z. Cooler temperatures on Sunday could limit the
severe potential, but current thinking is that the ample instability
should be able to overcome the cooler temperatures.

The cold front pushing through on Saturday will usher in some cooler
850 mb temperatures in the 12 to 16 C range across western and north
central Nebraska. This will allow for surface highs gradually drop
through the weekend with highs only in the 60s by Sunday. With the
cold front passage, lows will also drop from the mid 50s to low 60s
tonight to the upper 40s to low 50s (normal range) by Sunday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 154 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Unsettled weather will continue on Monday lasting through at least
the middle of next week as a series of disturbances pivot across the
region. While the severe risk remains uncertain beyond Sunday
night/Monday morning, some stronger to briefly severe storms will be
entirely possible into next week with thunderstorms mainly confined
to the late afternoon and early evening hours, weakening overnight
as more stable air moves into the area after sunset. Will continue
to monitor the severe potential heading into the beginning of next
week and through the end of the week.

Due to continued rain chances, cloudy conditions, and increased cold
air advection into the region, temperatures will remain below normal
in the mid 60s to low 70s through Thursday (normal in the low 80s).
However, overnight lows will remain near or slightly above normals
(upper 40s) as clouds and rain after dark will actually result in
reduced diurnal cooling at night and keep the region slightly
warmer. Expect lows to only drop into the upper 40s to mid 50s
Monday night through Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

VFR conditions will persist across the region through the afternoon
with more unsettled weather arriving this evening. Isolated
thunderstorms will develop across the Panhandle by 04Z with hail and
strong winds being the main threats. Showers come to an end by 09Z
giving way to patchy fog across both terminals Saturday morning.
Visibility restrictions down to 1 mile will be possible at times
before fog dissipates by late morning. Cloudy conditions with
ceilings below 2000 feet will continue through early afternoon.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Kulik