419
FXUS63 KLBF 170813
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
313 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- One more day of below normal highs in the 70s before readings return
  to more seasonal levels in the 80s Friday through Sunday.

- Hot temperatures in the 90s will begin Monday and will persist
  into the middle of next week.

- After a dry 24 hours, thunderstorm chances will return to the
  area Friday night. There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for
  severe storms Friday in the northeastern forecast area and
  across the entire forecast area Saturday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

H5 analysis tonight had high pressure anchored over the
northwestern Caribbean and extended east into the southeastern
CONUS. Low pressure was located over northeastern portions of the
Hudson Bay of Canada and a trough of low pressure extended south-
southwest of this feature into the eastern Dakotas. West of the
trough, a strong shortwave trough was located over central portions
of British Columbia. South of this feature, broad west-northwest to
east-southeast extended from the northwestern CONUS into Nebraska
and Iowa. Within this flow, a shortwave trough was present from
southeastern Wyoming into eastern Colorado. Overnight, this feature,
combined with a stalled out frontal boundary, has led to
thunderstorm development from eastern Colorado into Kansas and far
southern Nebraska. North of the front, skies were cloudy overnight
and winds were light from the east or northeast across the forecast
area. Temperatures as of 2 AM CT ranged from 53 degrees at Valentine
to 61 degrees at Ogallala and Imperial.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Surface high pressure will track from the eastern Dakotas into
Minnesota and Iowa today. Southerly winds will increase across
the area this afternoon, west of the exiting high and east of
deepening low pressure over Wyoming. Looking at the forecast H85
temperature fields in the NAM12, decent low level warm air
advection will hold off until later tonight into Friday, leading
to one more cool day across the forecast area. Clouds will be
slow to erode as easterly winds will continue through midday.
Clouds through midday and an easterly component to the winds
will also limit highs to the 70s this afternoon. Dry conditions
should carry over into the tonight period as mid level forcing
remains south of the forecast area. The latest NAM12 soln and
00z HRRR develop storms over eastern Colorado and lifts this
activity east across southern and central Kansas this evening
into the overnight hours. Another area of convection develops
over the Black Hills per the HRRR and 3KM Nam soln and tracks
this activity to the east-southeast across southern South Dakota
overnight. The inherited forecast had a slight chance mention
of pcpn over far northern Nebraska tonight. Looking at the
forecast position of the low level jet tonight, feel pcpn will
remain north of the forecast area and will take this out of the
forecast with this package. Surface low pressure will transition
south east from central Wyoming into southeastern Wyoming
tonight into Friday. Northeast of the low, an inverted surface
trough will develop across the Panhandle into north central
Nebraska Friday afternoon. Southerly winds east of the trough
axis, will push highs into the upper 80s to lower 90s. Late in
the day, isolated storms may develop INVOF the inverted trough,
particularly over northern portions of the forecast area. This
is supported by the latest WARW, 00z HRRR, and 3 KM NAM solns.
Activity becomes better organized over north central into
northeastern Nebraska Friday night on the nose of a robust low
level jet.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Overnight convection Friday night will force the inverted
trough east of the area. Late on Saturday, a warm front will
become established across Nebraska, serving as a focal point for
thunderstorms late Saturday into Saturday night. The latest
NAM12 soln from tonight, has a broad area of 4000-5000J/kg CAPE
across the southern half of the forecast area Saturday
afternoon. Deep layer shear is more than adequate for severe
storms and forecast hodographs indicate decent low level
curvature and robust 0-2km helicities INVOF the front Saturday
evening. The latest SWODY3 has the entire forecast area in a
marginal risk and if current model trends continue, wouldn`t be
surprised if this was upgraded to a slight risk over the next 12
to 24 hours. High pressure aloft will build into the southern
plains Sunday into Tuesday with the forecast area on the
northern periphery of the high. Temperatures will warm into the
90s Sunday through Wednesday with at least a small threat for
thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.
Thunderstorm chances will depend highly on track and timing of
disturbances rotating on the periphery of the upper level high.
Will handle this will periodic low chances for precipitation.
Forecast confidence in temperatures next week is greater than
precipitation as the latest NBM guidance has decent
probabilities for above normal temps which equates to lower to
middle 90s Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Low stratus persists into Thursday morning across much of the
Sandhills and southwest Nebraska, with MVFR/locally IFR CIGs
expected. Some expansion of lowered CIGs into northern Nebraska
will also be possible through sunrise. Gradual improvements are
then expected into Thursday afternoon, with all area terminals
returning to VFR by Thursday evening.

Winds shift to the south through sunrise before strengthening
Thursday afternoon. Southerly gusts of 20 to 30kts are expected
along and west of HWY 83.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Brown