326
FXUS63 KLBF 181116
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
616 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon along
  the eastern edges of the CWA, mainly along a line east of
  western Frontier County to southwestern Custer County to
  Garfield, Wheeler and southwestern Boyd counties.

- High temperatures nearly 10 to 20 degrees below seasonal
  average are expected Wednesday in the wake of a cold front.

- An active pattern keeps chances of showers and thunderstorms
  through the end of the week. At this time, the severe
  potential is uncertain.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Upper air analysis and satellite imagery place an upper level trough
over the western United States, with the trough axis through Utah
and Arizona. Western Nebraska sits just to the east of the eastern
edge of the trough, in an area supportive of divergence aloft. Early
this morning, storms are noted over the Dakotas under areas of
greatest divergence aloft. At the surface, a low pressure system is
observed over western Nebraska early this morning, with a warm front
extended across southern South Dakota, and a cold front trailing to
the southwest across north central Colorado.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

The low pressure system over western Nebraska early this morning
will continue tracking eastward. As the low tracks to the northeast,
the cold front will track across the region this morning, which will
help diminish the gusty winds observed overnight. The cold front
will be the focus for severe weather potential later this afternoon,
though the more active severe weather appears to be well east of the
region, focused more over eastern Nebraska. Given the proximity to
the cold front, the Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of
the region in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather this
afternoon. This area is roughly along and east of a line from
western Frontier County to southwestern Custer County to Garfield,
Wheeler and southwestern Boyd counties. Latest CAM guidance suggests
the best potential for precipitation this afternoon will be over the
portions of north central Nebraska in the Marginal Risk. Although
there is a Marginal Risk across the region, the severe weather
threat is very conditional on storms being able to initiate this
afternoon. Forecast soundings from the CAMs show quite a robust cap,
meaning any storms that could potentially form will more than likely
be elevated in nature. The main severe weather concerns would be for
large hail and strong thunderstorm winds, but again, conditional on
storms initiating west of the cold front.

Otherwise, the cold frontal passage this morning will keep things
more on the mild side this afternoon, with temperatures climbing
into the 70s across most of the region, with a few spots breaking 80
degrees. As the cold front pushes east, it is eventually expected to
stall around Iowa and Missouri. As the front stalls, clouds continue
to back build over the region, providing building cloud cover
throughout the afternoon and overnight. Overnight and through
Wednesday night, another round of showers and thunderstorms is
expected to form and track across the region. At this time the
severe weather threat is low.

Of note for Wednesday, is the cool post frontal environment settling
over the region. Temperatures are only expected to climb into the
60s across most of the region, with perhaps a few areas breaking 70
degrees. These temperatures are below our seasonal average by around
10 to 20 degrees. As stated above, there will also be another chance
for precipitation during this cooler period Wednesday into Wednesday
night. While the cooler temperatures will limit any severe weather
concern, it could be a catalyst for efficient rain production for
showers and locally heavy rain. At this time, the best potential for
locally heavy rain appears to be areas east of Highway 83.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

The upper level pattern remains fairly supportive of rain through
the end of the week. The upper level trough remains fairly
stationary over the western United States through the end of the
week. Guidance suggests the potential for a few small shortwaves to
potentially eject out of the main trough, which could be a catalyst
for showers and thunderstorms through the end of the week.

By Friday afternoon, the trough is expected to begin lifting and
tracking to the northeast. This leads to upper level ridging
beginning to set up later in the weekend into early next week. As
the upper level ridging settles in, temperatures are expected to
begin climbing back to seasonal averages starting Friday and through
the weekend, returning back to above average early next week. Timing
and exact values will continue to be refined in further forecasts,
but for now, expecting a return to warmer and drier conditions early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 615 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

The cold front has passed TAF sites at issuance and will
continue to move eastward. Winds will remain gusty 30 to 35kt
this morning with winds veering around further northwesterly,
though winds will be gradually diminishing this afternoon.
Anticipate winds will be around 10kt shortly after sunset though
will become northeasterly toward the end of the valid period
with potential for gusts to 20kt.

Anticipate MVFR CIGs with the front will linger for a bit this
morning before a return to VFR this afternoon. Will keep TAFs
dry until some showers/thunder start pushing up form the south
toward the end of the valid period, primarily at KLBF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Richie
SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...MBS