157
FXUS63 KLBF 140515
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1215 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather is in place
  for both Friday and Saturday as rounds of strong to severe
  thunderstorms appear probable across western Nebraska.

- Increased rain and thunderstorm potential appears set to
  return Monday through Tuesday with probabilities of exceeding
  0.5" total rainfall above 50% for north central and central
  Nebraska.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 411 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

For tonight, surface winds late this afternoon will remain from
the southeast extending back into southeast Wyoming and eastern
Colorado. Dewpoints will be in the low to mid 60s. The surface
front will become nearly stationary over north central Nebraska,
as surface low pressure extends from central Wyoming to along
the Colorado Front Range. SBCAPEs from 2000 to 3000 J/kg by
late afternoon across the eastern panhandle and western
Sandhills prior to any convection. The increase in instability
and effective bulk shear from 25 to 3kts, will be more
favorable for strong to severe storms. Also, conditions appear
favorable for potential MCS development moving into the
southeast Panhandle early this evening, and into southwest
Nebraska mid to late evening, as shown by recent runs of the
HRRR and RRFS, and NSSL MPAS. The main severe weather concerns
are damaging wind gusts, especially if the linear convection
develops, as well as some large hail. In these areas, confidence
is high that POPs from 60 to 80 percent are forecast. With the
enhanced southeasterly low level flow and higher dewpoints,
locally heavy rainfall is possible. There is a Slight Risk
(Level 2 of 5) of severe for areas mainly west of a Merriman
through Callaway line, with a Marginal Risk to the east.Across
north central and central Nebraska, much less activity is
expected , with POPS from 20 to 30 percent.

Warmer air returns Saturday, with surface winds becoming
southerly and the surface front lifting north into southern
South Dakota. Highs in the upper 80s to around 90 return to the
area with dewpoints mostly in the mid 60s. A Slight Risk is in
place across western Nebraska, mainly west of a line from
Springview through Callaway and Imperial and a Marginal Risk to
the south and east. An upper level disturbance will cross the
upper ridge axis Saturday night. Storms are expected to be at
least scattered, with 40-60 POPs across the entire forecast
area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 411 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

A frontal boundary will remain in Place Sunday through Tuesday
across the region with daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms mainly from late afternoon into the overnight
hours. A Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms Sunday and Monday
across north central Nebraska. Upper 80s to around 90 Sunday
and Monday, then cooler in the upper 70s to lower 80s Tuesday
into Wednesday as an upper trough crosses the Northern and
Central Plains. Warmer and drier conditions Thursday and Friday
as a strong upper ridge builds into the region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Thunderstorms will persist for a few more hours, before waning
prior to sunrise. These storms will continue to pose a risk for
brief MVFR visibilities and gusty, erratic winds.

Low stratus will then overspread far northern Nebraska terminals
into sunrise, with IFR/locally LIFR CIGs expected. Cloud bases
should rise quickly back to VFR by late morning, with VFR then
expected to prevail into tonight.

Outside of thunderstorms, winds remain southerly today and
tonight at 10 to 15kts.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Brown