594
FXUS63 KLBF 171801
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
101 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Moderate to high confidence severe storms this afternoon and
  evening with a few tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds
  being the primary threats.

- Moderate to high confidence in strong to severe thunderstorms
  again late Tuesday afternoon and evening with large hail,
  strong winds being the main threats.

- Thunderstorms persist into late week, with some threat for
  strong to severe thunderstorms again on Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 329 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are currently moving across northern
Nebraska tonight. These showers will slowly weaken as they move
southeastward into more stable air, completely exiting by sunrise.
The main concern with these showers will be gusty winds (there`s
been a history of up to 75 mph gusts these storms) along with some
heavy rainfall leading to localized flooding. The threat for strong
winds should continue to decrease over the next few hours,
transitioning into a more heavy rain event as storms train over the
same area. At this time, not anticipating widespread flooding, but
some area creeks and streams could see rises leading to some
localized minor flooding, along with some flooding of ditches and
low lying areas across areas that have seen some heavy rain the past
few days.

Dry conditions return for much of Monday with a return to isolated
to scattered thunderstorms by late afternoon and into the evening.
Ample instability (CAPE values over 3000 J/kg and lapse rates near 7
C/km) and plenty of low level moisture will create a favorable
environment for severe storms. Storms will initiate across northwest
Nebraska pushing into the Sandhills and portions of central Nebraska
through the evening. Initially, storms will be discrete before
forming a line of storms by early evening. While storms remain
discrete, hail at least 1 inch in diameter, potentially larger, will
be the primary threat. As storms evolve into a line, damaging winds
up to 65 mph will become the main threat. The environment is also
favorable for tornado development with a narrow ribbon of higher
helicity combining with increasing shear. Therefore, a tornado or
two cannot be completely ruled out especially near the beginning of
the event when supercells remain discrete enough to take advantage
of the environment. The severe threat will continue through late
evening before storms start to weaken.

A repeat of the past couple days will persist into Tuesday. A return
to isolated to scattered thunderstorms arrives by late afternoon
lasting into the overnight hours as a frontal boundary remains
across southwest Nebraska. Enough instability should exist across
the region to support severe storms by late afternoon and evening.
Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats with these
storms although there is also a very small tornado threat again.
Storms will persist through the evening hours before becoming more
stratiform in nature with embedded thunderstorms continuing through
sunrise Wednesday morning.

As far as temperatures go, highs will remain near normal in the mid
80s to low 90s today, dropping back below normals in the upper 70s
to mid 80s for much of the area on Tuesday. Locations south of I-80
(behind the frontal boundary) could see some higher temperatures in
the low to mid 90s. Overnight lows will remain near normals,
dropping into the upper 50s to low 60s through Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 329 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Strong west-northwest flow continues as we head into midweek, with
at least some threat for thunderstorms continuing as well. This
strong flow aloft will keep ample deep layer shear in place on
Wednesday, and some threat for strong to severe storms appears
possible. Confidence in both placement and coverage of storms
remains low confidence for now, and trends will continue to be
monitored. By late week, upper ridging will begin to establish
across the Rockies, amplifying into the weekend. This upper
ridge axis also begins to translate eastwards into the Plains by
Saturday night. This will lead to height rises across the area
and increasing temperatures into the weekend. This could also
bring a brief reprieve from thunderstorm threats, before the
ridge begins to flatten early next week and zonal flow
establishes aloft again.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across all of western and north
central Nebraska through tonight and into Tuesday morning. There
is a signal for some lower MVFR ceilings to develop west of
departing thunderstorms across central and portions of north
central Nebraska early Tuesday morning. Otherwise scattered
thunderstorms should develop this evening, and as mentioned,
depart the area later tonight.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...Taylor