252
FXUS63 KLBF 032022
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
222 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The threat for light precipitation may linger into Wednesday
  over far northeastern portions of the forecast. There is an
  additional threat for light precipitation Wednesday night for
  most of the forecast area with the exception of the eastern
  Panhandle and far southwestern Nebraska.

- Expect dry conditions beyond Wednesday night with seasonal temperatures
  forecast through Sunday. Above normal temperatures are
  possible Monday and Tuesday.


&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 222 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

H5 analysis this morning had a broad trough of low
pressure which extended from western Ontario, south-southwest into
northwestern Texas. Within this trough, closed low pressure was
located central Kansas. Upstream of this trough, a decent shortwave
was noted over western Wyoming and eastern Idaho. East of the
trough, ridging extended from the Carolinas, north into the eastern
Great Lakes. West of the trough, high amplitude ridging extended
from western Idaho, northeast into southern portions of Saskatchewan
and southern portions of Alberta. West of this ridge, closed low
pressure was noted approximately 300 miles off the coast of northern
California. At the surface, low pressure was just to the southeast
of Falls City Nebraska. a cold front extended to the south of this
feature into eastern Texas. A stationary front extended north-
northeast of the low into central Iowa and the arrowhead of
Minnesota. A broad area of showers extended from northeastern into
south central Nebraska this afternoon. This activity was just to the
east of the forecast area with some very light precipitation noted
over Boyd, Holt, Wheeler and portions of Garfield County. skies were
cloudy, generally along and east of highway 83 from Valentine to
North Platte. Temperatures as of 2 PM CST ranged from 41 degrees at
Ainsworth and Valentine to 60 degrees at Imperial and Ogallala.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 222 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Upper level low pressure will track from southwestern Iowa into
southern Minnesota tonight. As this feature tracks north-
northeast across western Iowa, weak mid level isentropic lift
will continue through mid evening over the far northeastern
forecast area. Skies will gradually clear overnight west of a
line from Burwell to Atkinson. East of this line, cloudiness on
the western periphery of the upper level low will continue to
back into the northeastern forecast area from the east. With
respect to lows tonight, with clearing skies over the western
2/3rds of the forecast area and light northwesterly winds
developing overnight, felt the NBM forecast was too warm on its
low forecast tonight. This especially holds true in the Platte
River Valley where west northwesterly winds and low level dry
air advection support a decent cold air drainage setup
overnight. That being said, went with mid 20s in the valley.
Elsewhere, upper 20s were forecast, with lower to middle 30s in
the northeast where cloud cover is expected overnight. The upper
level low will stall out over east central Minnesota Wednesday,
thanks to a northwest/southeast oriented ridge, downstream of
the low over the eastern half of Ontario Canada. An embedded
shortwave on the western periphery of the low will track through
eastern South Dakota into northeastern Nebraska Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night. This will bring a secondary
threat for light rain to northeastern portions of the forecast
area. The inherited forecast had precipitation chances as far
west as the western Sandhills to highway 61 and north of
Interstate 80. The latest GFS, 12z HRRR, and RRFS keep their
measurable precipitation generally east of highway 183. This is
echoed by the latest NBM ensemble forecast which has a 20 to 30
% chance of 12 hr measurable pcpn east of highway 183 Wednesday
night. Based on the model trends from this morning, will confine
pops to locations generally east of highway 183.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 222 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

The latest deterministic GFS and EC solns from this morning are
indicating a mid level trough impacting the central CONUS
Saturday. However, with not much in the way of moisture
available this weekend, dry conditions are expected to continue
across the area. In the wake of the trough Saturday, low
amplitude ridging will develop and persist across the central
CONUS through Tuesday. This will lead to a dry forecast and
after Friday, max temperatures that are near normal (through
Friday) to above normal (Saturday through Tuesday). Highs
through Friday will be generally in the 50s with highs reaching
into the 60s Saturday through Tuesday. Looking at the latest
NBM, EC and GFS ensembles, there decent agreement in warm
temperatures (highs in the 60s) continuing into the middle and
end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1111 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

For the KLBF terminal: Expect some limited clearing later this
afternoon with scattered to broken ceilings ranging from 1500 to
3000 FT AGL. Skies will then become mostly clear by evening with
a few to scattered clouds at 20000 FT AGL. For the KVTN
terminal: Expect mainly cloudy skies this afternoon with broken
to overcast ceilings ranging from 1000 to 1500 FT AGL. Ceilings
will begin to rise overnight, up to 3000 FT AGL by midnight CST.
Ceilings will then increase Wednesday morning to 20000 FT AGL.
Northwesterly winds will remain gusty at both terminals this
afternoon with gusts up to 30 to 35 KTS. Winds will quickly
diminish this evening, becoming west-northwest mid evening at
under 10 KTS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Buttler