560
FXUS63 KLBF 302324
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
624 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler temperatures and expansive rain and thunderstorms
  continue today through much of Sunday and into early Monday.

- Temperatures warm slightly by Tuesday before the next
  disturbance approaches and drops temperatures once again back
  to the 60s and low 70s for Wednesday/Thursday.

- The end of the week appears likely to return to seasonable
  temperatures with values in the upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 322 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Today/Tonight...expansive rain and thunderstorms cover much of west
central Nebraska. This is in response to a h5 trough diving
southeast through the area. At the surface, modest low pressure was
developing over southwest South Dakota within an inverted surface
trough. This has kept air fairly stagnant and maintained the
anomalous moisture quality locally. This equates to precipitable
water (PWAT) values exceeding 1.25" or 125-150% of normal. A strong
PV anomaly within the midlevel will continue to support the rain
and thunderstorms through tonight as a result. Lapse rates remain
poor, at or below 6 C/km, and as a result instability is weak. Even
so, do expect a few areas of thunderstorms within all the
precipitation but combining the low instability with poor shear
should yield no severe weather outside of heavy rain. With regards
to the rainfall potential...within a converging line on the forward
edge of the low pressure center, believe a northwest to southeast
oriented line of heavier rain and thunderstorms will develop later
this afternoon. HREF Localized Probability-Matched Mean (LPMM)
output shows areas potentially reaching 2-4" through daybreak on
Sunday east of Highway 183. Recent HRRR runs echo this thought with
deterministic output exceeding 2" for much of our north central
Nebraska counties. Flash Flood Guidance remains fairly high for
these areas with most locations exceeding 2.5" for 1-hour criteria.
Will forgo any hydro headlines as a result. Tonight, lows fall into
the 50s to near 60F west to east. Will need to monitor the potential
for fog, perhaps locally dense, given abundant moisture near the
surface and generally calm winds. For now, will cap mention at
"Patchy" and advise subsequent shifts to monitor the threat.

Sunday/Sunday Night...lingering rain and thunderstorms will continue
across largely the northeast half of the forecast area through much
of the day. H85 flow wrapping beneath the h5 circulation will
reinforce low-level moisture and low stratus. This will greatly hold
temperatures back in the affected areas with highs holding in the
low 60s. Rain will continue mainly for areas east of Highway 83
thanks to southeasterly fetch of the low-level flow. PWATs will
remain high though drier air will begin working into our western
zones by the afternoon. Still, can`t rule out some additional heavy
rain though forcing remains weaker thus QPF decreases to less than
1" for the day outside of localized areas. This is nearly identical
to HREF LPMM output. Outside of rain, more appreciable breaks in the
clouds and lack of cooling rains should allow temperatures to reach
the middle 70s. Further west to east clearing of rain will occur
Sunday night. This will support slightly cooler lows with many low
50s extending further east and only upper 50s east of Highway
183.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 322 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Monday/Tuesday...upstream ridging will amplify with highly
meridional flow expected to build in to start the new work week.
Ridge axis will remain well west of the Continental Divide. This
should keep much of the warmer air out of the area though a modest
warm up is still expected. With h85 temperatures returning to the
middle and upper teens for our western zones, the result will be
daytime highs back to the middle and upper 70s then upper 70s to
lower 80s respectively for Monday and Tuesday. Precipitation chances
appear quite limited outside of late Tuesday night as the next
system bringing another strong cool front drops south into western
Nebraska.

Wednesday and beyond...as mentioned, a strong cool front will dive
south out of South Dakota late Tuesday. This feature will remain
fairly progressive thanks to quick eastward tracking of the parent
low pressure and strong Canadian high pressure building in behind
it. Precipitation chances will wane through the day Wednesday as the
main surface boundary settles south by the daytime. Temperatures
will once again fall across the region with a return of more Fall-
like conditions. Highs will settle into the low 60s, or below the
10th percentile in LBF and VTN`s respective climatologies. Though
notable, this will be brief as shortwave ridging works in by Friday.
Height anomalies don`t achieve significant values, but support the
warming temperatures advertised by NBM guidance. Inner-quartile MaxT
values show steady increases Friday through Sunday with median
values reaching the low 80s. Signs point to another cooldown to
start the beginning of the following week, however, spread remains
fairly high between individual ensemble members and deterministic
values hover closer to the 25th percentile likely suggesting a cool
bias potentially attributable to the recent cooler weather. So it
remains to be seen how much cooler we actually get beyond Day 7.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 614 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

A slow moving upper level disturbance will continue to bring a
chance of showers and thunderstorms to the region through
Sunday, although the highest chances will be east of Highway 83.
Based on latest radar trends, have removed any mention of rain
tonight in the LBF taf as most of the lingering showers and
storms will stay west and east of the airport. For VTN, showers
and a few storms are heading southeast towards the area, thus
kept a tempo group from 00z to 03z for showers. By late
evening and overnight, low stratus and fog will develop across
much of the area. High confidence this will occur, but lower
confidence at the onset of the event. Low stratus, fog and
a chance of showers will lead to poor fly conditions through
mid-morning on Sunday before CIGS rise into the VFR category
along and generally west of Highway 83. MVFR CIGS may linger
into the afternoon to the east of Highway 83 as the system
slowly departs the area. Gusty winds up to around 20 knots
are possible on Sunday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...Eckberg