580
FXUS63 KLBF 230908
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
308 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A low pressure system will cross the area tonight into Monday.
  Light rain will be possible with this system

- After Monday night, mainly dry conditions are expected thorugh
  Friday with cooler than normal temperatures forecast.

- There is the potential for a weather system to impact the
  Central Plains late Saturday into early the following week. At
  this time, forecast confidence is low as to the evolution of
  this system.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 308 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

H5 analysis tonight continued to show a split flow regime
across southern Canada and the CONUS. Low amplitude ridging was
present from western Montana, north into central Alberta.
Further east, a shortwave trough was present over western
Ontario and extended to the south into the Minnesota Arrowhead
and northern Wisconsin. East of this feature, closed low
pressure was present over Labrador Newfoundland. Across the
CONUS, a shortwave trough was present over southern Ohio into
northern Kentucky. Low amplitude ridging extended from
northwestern Texas into southeastern Wyoming. West of the ridge,
closed low pressure was present over northern portions of Baja
California. Current satellite imagery has this feature along the
Arizona/Mexico border south of Phoenix. At the surface tonight,
a broad area of high pressure was present over the central and
southern plains. Skies were clear across western and north
central Nebraska overnight and 2 AM temperatures ranged from 25
degrees at North Platte to 34 degrees at Imperial.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 308 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

The upper level low will lift northeast from souther Arizona
into central Colorado today. Downstream ridging will transition
east across the forecast area today with warm air and increasing
southerly winds overspreading the forecast area. Afternoon
highs will reach well into the upper 50s and lower 60s across
the forecast area. These readings will more than likely be the
last time we hit the 60 degree mark across western and north
central Nebraska for the foreseeable future. The upper level low
will eject off the central Colorado Rockies tonight, meandering
to the east northeast overnight. By 12z Monday, this feature
will be over northwestern Kansas. Decent mid level warm air
advection will transition from southwestern into central
Nebraska tonight, along with a brief window of favorable
isentropic lift at the 300K surface. This will lead to the
development of precipitation later this evening across
southwestern Nebraska. Precipitation will then spread northeast
into central, then portions of north central Nebraska overnight
into Monday before exiting the forecast area early Monday
afternoon. The inherited forecast was in decent shape with
respect to pops. The only changes were to tighten pops on the
northern periphery of the forecast area. Believe the influx of
some drier air from the north will limit the precipitation
threat over far northern portions of the forecast area. This
notion is also supported by the latest 00z HRRR, as well as the
NAM and hi res NAM solns and the 00Z WRF-ARW which all have no
QPF across northwestern and far northwestern portions of the
forecast area. As for highs Monday, clouds will end up limiting
the warm up, particularly across far eastern portions of the
forecast area where clouds may persist into the afternoon hours.
Highs Monday will be in the lower to middle 50s which is 5 to
10 degrees above normal for this time of year. On the heels of
the exiting system Monday afternoon, a second system will track
from eastern Montana into North Dakota Monday night, forcing a
cold front through the forecast area overnight. No precipitation
is expected with the FROPA, however strong cold air advection,
will lead to gusty winds overnight into Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 308 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Gusty winds and strong cold air advection will lead to highs
Tuesday in the upper 30s to lower 40s. With the latest NBM
forecast, POPS Tuesday were eliminated with this forecast
package and this appears on track given the more northern trend
with the H5 disturbance over North Dakota into northern
Minnesota. For the middle to latter half of the work week, broad
northwesterly flow will persist across the central CONUS. This
will lead to daily highs mainly in the 40s with the coolest
readings over the northeastern forecast area. Am expecting dry
conditions through Friday. After Friday night, the forecast is
more muddled. The deterministic EC and GFS solns begin to
develop a broad trough of low pressure over the western half of
the CONUS. As this feature transitions east, approaching, then
crossing the central CONUS next weekend into the first week of
December, we could see our first accumulating snow event across
the forecast area. Current deterministic models including the EC
and GFS continue to have decent track and timing issues on days
8-10, however ensemble guidance, most notably the EC does have
a decent threat for accumulating snows Sunday November 30th and
Monday December 1st.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1120 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

VFR conditions will prevail across western and north central
Nebraska throughout most of the effective TAF period. WInds remain
light and variable under clear skies overnight, with winds becoming
southerly to southwesterly by the afternoon. During the afternoon
hours, winds are expected to become gusty across the Sandhills and
north central Nebraska, with gusts around 20 knots. Clouds gradually
track in from south to north throughout the afternoon, with chances
of rain showers across southwest Nebraska in the late evening and
beyond the TAF period. These showers may be accompanied with MVFR
ceilings, however, lower ceilings are possible, especially beyond
the effective TAF period, when IFR conditions are more likely.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Richie