353
FXUS63 KLBF 161938
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
238 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expect well below normal temperatures on Thursday with
  readings in the middle 70s.

- Seasonal temperatures are expected Friday through Sunday with
  above normal temperatures in the mid 90s returning to the area
  Monday and Tuesday. Precipitation chances (30 to 50 percent)
  are greatest late Saturday into Saturday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

A ridge of surface high pressure will build into eastern
Nebraska tonight as low cloudiness continues. Despite mainly
cloudy skies, the cool airmass will bring lows tonight from 50
to 55 degrees, which is from 5 to 10 degrees below normal. A
light northeast wind will become light easterly overnight. Could
see isolated showers or a thunderstorm move into the western
Sandhills and southwest Nebraska this evening, although most of
the CAMs keep these areas dry tonight. Elevated thunderstorms
are expected to develop late evening and overnight north of a
warm front located from northwest Kansas into southeast
Nebraska. Frontier County is in close enough proximity to keep a
slight chance for thunderstorms there overnight.

On Thursday, the center of surface high pressure will move
toward the western Great Lakes, with winds becoming southeast.
Breezy conditions across the western Sandhills by afternoon to
10 to 15 mph in the east. Morning cloudiness will lift by
afternoon with partly sunny to mostly sunny skies. The cool
airmass will continue to influence highs, forecast in the mid
70s, except upper 70s far western and northwestern areas. The
mid and upper flow will remain zonal with dry conditions
expected through the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

A noticeable warmup for Friday, as surface low pressure deepens
across Wyoming and Colorado. Highs return to the 90s across
southwestern areas to mid 80s east with south winds 10 to 20
mph. Could see a few storms Friday night, where stronger
westerlies in the mid and upper levels exist across the Northern
into the Central Plains.

Saturday, a warm front is shown to develop across southern
Nebraska, with easterly winds to the north of this front. This
will promote an upslope flow into the panhandle an Black Hills
with a good chance for scattered thunderstorms by late afternoon
into the overnight hours. The storms could be strong to severe,
as MUCAPEs reach 2500-3500 J/kg across the area, with the
higher 0-6km shear of 40-45kt across north central Nebraska.

A warming trend Sunday through Wednesday as the upper ridge
builds across the south central U.S. Highs by Monday and
Tuesday to reach the mid 90s, with a few upper 90s possible.
with humid conditions, the heat index values may reach the upper
90s. Precipitation chances will be low with mainly dry
conditions expected each day.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

IFR ceilings currently exist across north central Nebraska
including KVTN, while MVFR ceilings near OVC012 exist across
southwest Nebraska including KLBF. Expect ceilings to improved
to MVFR at KVTN this afternoon, to a VFR ceilings this evening
and overnight. At KLBF, expect MVFR ceilings this afternoon, to
improved to a VFR ceiling 03Z through 09Z, falling back to MVFR
after 09Z. Timing of ceiling categories and the potential for
lower ceilings exist and remain somewhat uncertain, so will
closely monitor trends through the next TAF issuance.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Roberg