798
FXUS63 KLBF 012023
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
323 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler morning lows return tonight with temperatures in the
  upper 30s to low 40s. The threat for frost appears low at this
  time.

- Gusty southerly winds develop Monday, with gusts exceeding 40
  mph possible across the Sandhills into north-central
  Nebraska.

- Above-normal temperatures and generally dry conditions are
  expected through much of next week, with highs mainly in the
  upper 70s to lower 80s by midweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 321 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Dry conditions have returned to western Nebraska in the wake of a
cold front that passed through the area this morning. This has held
temperatures in the lower to middle 60s and had led to gusty
northeast winds. Skies continue to clear as yesterday`s system
continues to depart off to the southeast.

Surface high pressure, currently centered over eastern Montana, is
expected to move into eastern South Dakota and far northeastern
Nebraska by early tomorrow morning. The approach of this surface
high will lead to light and variable winds and allow for efficient
radiational cooling. The position of the surface high will allow for
southerly flow to return across western Nebraska, and this should
boost lows into the low 40s and preclude any frost concerns west of
HWY 83. The south winds are slower to return for locations along and
east of HWY 83 tonight, and this should allow for lows to dip into
the upper 30s. Though widespread frost still does not look likely,
localized frost in low-lying areas cannot be ruled out. Protecting
any sensitive vegetation might not be a bad idea overnight for
locations near and east of HWY 83.

Conditions into the weekend then finally return to much drier and
sunny, after the recent stretch of cloudy and rainy days to end
September. Highs begin to rebound back into the low 70s across
western Nebraska tomorrow, as the aforementioned southerly flow
boosts warm advection west of HWY 83. In fact, south winds are
expected to gust as high as 30 to 35 miles per hour tomorrow
afternoon across western Nebraska. Locations farther east remain
in the 60s for one more day amid weaker warm advection. Highs
then moderate back into the middle to upper 70s for Saturday as
the dry and sunny conditions continue. A weak cool front will
push into western Nebraska Saturday afternoon, though will
provide little impact outside of a shift to breezy northerly
winds by late afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 321 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Sunday, an upper-level ridge will amplify across the western United
States while a trough remains across the Hudson Bay region. This
will place the forecast area beneath northwesterly flow aloft, with
weak cold air advection and increasing subsidence across the region.
At the surface, high pressure will build southward from southern
Canada on the backside of the trough and along the eastern periphery
of the western ridge. This should result in lighter northerly winds,
clearing skies, and cooler temperatures. Highs Sunday should remain
in the upper 60s to lower 70s, with overnight lows falling into the
middle to upper 40s.

Monday, the upper-level ridge will begin to flatten across the
western United States as a weak disturbance moves through the
northwestern United States. Ahead of this wave, surface low pressure
will deepen along the lee of the Rockies, resulting in a
strengthening pressure gradient and increasing southerly flow across
the region. Wind gusts Monday afternoon may exceed 40 mph across
portions of the Sandhills into north-central Nebraska. Increasing
southerly flow and warm air advection will also support warmer
temperatures, with highs reaching the lower to middle 70s across
most of the area and lower 80s across western Nebraska. Monday night
lows should remain in the upper 40s across eastern portions of the
area and lower 50s elsewhere.

Tuesday into midweek, upper-level ridging will remain the dominant
feature across the western United States, maintaining generally
westerly to northwesterly flow aloft across the central Plains.
Continued height rises and warm temperatures aloft should support
above-normal temperatures, with highs generally in the upper 70s to
lower 80s through the middle of the week. Looking at the broader
pattern, ensemble guidance continues to favor persistent ridging
across the western United States, with troughing remaining near the
Gulf of Alaska and the stronger upper-level flow displaced north of
the region. The positive PNA, EPO, and AO regimes also remain
supportive of the broader pattern currently in place. As a result,
there is increasing confidence that above-normal temperatures and
generally dry conditions will persist through much of next week.
While individual disturbances may occasionally move through the
northwesterly flow and briefly suppress the ridge, there is
currently little indication of a more substantial pattern change
through at least late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through tomorrow
afternoon across all of western and north central Nebraska.

Gusty northeast winds persist into this evening, with gusts of
25 to 35kts expected to continue for all terminals. Winds then
become light and variable overnight, generally 5kts or less.
Southerly winds then strengthen tomorrow afternoon, with gusts
again of 25 to 35kts expected.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Labenz
AVIATION...Brown