152
FXUS63 KLBF 170441
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1141 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe potential and locally heavy rainfall today and Tuesday
  is the main concern in the near term.

- Heat becomes a concern by the of the week, especially Friday
  through Sunday when highs in the 90s to lower 100s are
  expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 223 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Scattered supercell thunderstorm development is expected late this
afternoon along/near stalled front located across central into
southwest Nebraska. Strong to extreme surface based CAPE has
developed near this boundary due to the combination of steepening
mid-level lapse rates and moisture/dew points pooling near the
boundary. CAPE values are exceeding 4000 J/KG in this moist/warm
environment. Deep layer shear is more than adequate to sustain
updraft organization once any capping can be overcome. As surface
low pressure continues to deepen across northeast Colorado late this
afternoon into the evening, low-level flow should remain backed to
the southeast. This could locally enhance the tornado threat with
any storm near or on the boundary. In addition, the large CAPE, steep
mid-level lapse rates, and overall deep shear will be supportive of
large to very large hail.

Other thunderstorms will organize across the Panhandle within
favorable upslope environment late this afternoon. These will
quickly organize and surge eastward along and just north of the
above mentioned stalled boundary. Very strong winds may accompany
this line (with gusts of 75 mph possible). Will have to watch for
any interaction with the cells that develop ahead of this line near
the boundary late this afternoon/early this evening.

Also of concern will be the potential for heavy rainfall tonight. This
would most likely occur with any slow moving supercell development
along the boundary late this afternoon and early evening.

More rainfall and storms are possible Tuesday as another shortwave
crosses the area. The severe weather threat is more uncertain
compared to today. Abundant cloud cover with the stationary front
located to our south in Kansas may keep the better focus for severe
to the south. However, if enough recovery occurs could then another
round of stronger storms moving southeastward across the area off
the high plains will be possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 223 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Heights will rise as ridging aloft builds across the western CONUS
Wednesday through the week. This upper level ridging will translate
eastward across the region Thursday through Sunday. This will likely
bring an end to the severe weather/convection threat but increase
the heat threat. Temperatures and heat indicies reach near advisory
levels (>100 degrees) Friday and Saturday across portions of the
area. The ridge appears to begin to break down the first of next
week. Overall looks to be a brief period of hot weather...as
temperatures should cool some next week with the break down in the
ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Thunderstorms will persist into Wednesday morning and afternoon,
with MVFR visibilities and gusty, erratic winds expected inside
thunderstorms. Some low stratus development is possible across
western and southwest Nebraska towards sunrise leading to MVFR
CIGs, though confidence in this is low. CIGS should rise in any
stratus that does develop back to VFR into Wednesday afternoon.

Winds remain east-northeast outside of thunderstorms, at 10 to
15kts.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Brown