972
FXUS63 KLBF 190520
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1220 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drier conditions return through the weekend.

- Temperatures rise into the low 100s and heat indicies in the 100
to 105 range on Friday and Saturday with a Heat Advisory issued for
much of southwest and north central Nebraska.

- Rain and thunderstorms return Sunday night with near daily chances
through at least Wednesday.

- Temperatures drop back to below normal Monday through the middle
of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 326 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Upper level ridging will remain in place through the first half of
the weekend bringing a return to quieter and drier weather. In
addition to drier weather, this ridge will also result in a return
to warmer temperatures. Expect highs to rise from the upper 70s to
low 80s today into the upper 90s to low 100s for Friday and
Saturday. However, latest probabilities suggest these highs may
still be a few degrees too cold, especially on Saturday mainly south
of I-80. Here, the probability of hitting 100 degrees is 100
percent, and the probability of hitting 105 is still 75 percent.
Therefore, if trends continue to increase and the pattern remains in
place, could see highs rising even a few more degrees from what is
currently being forecasted. These forecasted highs will easily
result in heat indicies in the 100 to 105 degree range. At this
time, a Heat Advisory is in effect for areas generally east of a
line from Imperial to Valentine from Friday morning through Saturday
evening, but it may need to be extended further to the west if
trends in temperatures continue to increase.

While the majority of the region will remain dry through Saturday,
there is a low probability of some isolated showers and
thunderstorms across portions of central Nebraska on Thursday
evening. Latest SPC guidance has expanded the Marginal risk across
much of the region east of US-83. Although, instability is weak with
only a very narrow ribbon of higher CAPE (up to 3000 J/kg) during
the late afternoon and early evening. Still confidence remains low
in development and location and not much more than 20 percent PoPs
is in the forecast at this time and widespread severe is not
anticipated.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 326 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

A pattern change returns on Sunday as a cold front begins to track
through the region. This front will bring a return to cooler
temperatures as well as well as showers and thunderstorms on Sunday
night. Temperatures on Sunday will be highly dependent on the track
of the front as it moves northwest to southeast throughout the day.
As a result temperatures across the Pine Ridge will be the coolest
with highs only in the mid 80s. On the flip side, highs will remain
in the upper 90s to low 100s across Frontier county. At this time,
heat indicies will remain below 100 though so headlines are not
expected on Sunday. However, a slight shift in the track of this
front may create slightly warmer temperatures and resulting heat
indices. For storms on Sunday night, isolated to widely scattered
storms are expected to develop by early evening. With moderate
instability, a few storms have the potential to become strong to
severe. This will be closely monitored over the next few days as
models get a better handle on the environment.

Active weather continues through the middle of next week as several
rounds of disturbances impact the region result in near daily rain
and thunderstorm chances through Wednesday. At this time, confidence
in locations of impact and timing is low and therefore, the severe
potential is low at this time, but a stronger storm or two cannot be
ruled out completely with small hail and strong wind gusts being the
main threats. Otherwise, temperatures remain 10 to 15 degrees below
normal with highs ranging from the upper 60s in northern Nebraska to
the mid 70s south of I-80 through the Wednesday. Low temperatures
also drop below normal into the low to mid 50s through the middle of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

VFR conditions expected at the KLBF and KVTN terminals the next
24 hours. Light and variable winds become light southerly prior
to 12Z. Southerly winds increase to near 19015G25KT by 16Z until
00Z/20th. There is a small chance that thunderstorms could
develop across portions of southwest into north central Nebraska
after 22Z. This appear to be east of KVTN, but could develop
near KLBF. Confidence too low to include a mention attm, though
if thunderstorms do develop, brief heavy rain, gusty winds and
hail would be possible in a 22Z until 01Z window.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ Friday to midnight CDT
/11 PM MDT/ Saturday night for NEZ005>010-024>029-035>038-
057>059-069>071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Roberg