682
FXUS63 KLBF 081131
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
631 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today across
  western and north central Nebraska, with a Slight Risk (Level
  2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms. Large hail and gusty winds
  are possible, though a tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

- Near critical to critical fire weather conditions are possible Tuesday
  afternoon across western Nebraska, with a Fire Weather Watch
  in effect Tuesday afternoon into the evening. Additional
  concerns are possible Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

- Hot temperatures are forecast on Tuesday afternoon, with highs
  in the upper 90s possible.

- After one more warm day Wednesday, temperatures will be
  somewhat cooler Thursday, with a bit of a rebound Friday,
  before cooler air arrives for the weekend.

- Periodic chances for rainfall return for the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 140 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Tricky forecast today setting up across the area. Precipitation
chances today and ultimately tonight will hinge on whether or
not ongoing convection across the southern panhandle makes it
east overnight into southwestern and west central Nebraska. The
latest deterministic NAM12, 4KM NAM as well as the 00z HRRR
tonight, sustain convection overnight and indicate a messy setup
tomorrow with numerous cells in their respective composite
reflectivity forecast products. That being said, decided to
expand precipitation chances across southwestern Nebraska today.
With the forecast leaning toward higher pops and more expansive
pops tomorrow, decided to blend in some cooler statistical
guidance with the NBM forecast for highs this afternoon. The NBM
initialized with 86 for LBF today, with the EC having a high of
84 and the MAV 85. Felt the MET guidance high of 72 for this
afternoon was way too low and keyed in on persistent cloud cover
and rainfall all day today. Highs were trended downward some
particularly over the southern half of the forecast area, on the
anticipation of increased cloud cover today. As for the severe
threat, this will be problematic if convection persists
throughout the day. If a severe storm could develop, based on
forecast DCAPE and marginally steep mid level lapse rates, feel
the main threat is straight line winds followed by a large hail
threat.

On Tuesday, persistent southwesterly flow will continue with a broad
trough of low pressure present over the northwestern CONUS. By
afternoon a well defined dryline is progged to develop across the
far eastern panhandle or western Sandhills. Gusty southerly winds
Tuesday afternoon, along with low RH west of the dryline, will lead
to near critical or critical fire weather conditions. A fire weather
watch is in effect for forecast zone 204 and is highlighted in the
fire weather section below. By late afternoon, with the arrival of a
decent mid level shortwave and peak heating, the latest 00z HRRR and
00z 4KM NAM initiate convection along this feature. As for the
severe threat, forecast DCAPE of 1500+J/KG along with moderately
steep mid level lapse rates Tuesday afternoon would lead to a
primary threat for damaging winds with a secondary threat for large
hail. The latest 4KM NAM does indicate the potential for bowing
segments Tuesday evening and Tuesday night as convection traverses
across west central into central and eastern Nebraska, leading to a
wind threat Tuesday night. As for highs Tuesday, the NBM initialized
with hot temperatures across the area with readings ranging from the
middle 90s in the east to around 100 in SW Nebraska. West of the
dryline, this seems plausible. East of the dryline not so much.
Believe these highs Tuesday will be trended down with subsequent
forecasts as the degree of moisture over central and eastern
portions of the forecast area is too great to support highs in the
upper 90s to around 100.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 140 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

An upper trough moves eastward toward the Northern Plains Wednesday.
All models mix drier air eastward across the area Wednesday, likely
limiting any convection. A significant cold front them sweeps across
the area Wednesday night. Very warm temperatures are expected
Wednesday ahead of the cold front arrival, with lower to mid 90s
expected from southwest into central Nebraska.

Thursday, a drier, and somewhat cooler airmass settles into the area
behind the cold frontal passage with highs in the 80s. Westerly flow
aloft will dominate the upper pattern both Thursday and Friday. The
aforementioned cold front stalls across Kansas and tries to lift
back northward into the area Friday. This would bring higher dew
points back into the at least the southern parts of the area, and
could be a focus for convective development Friday afternoon and
evening.

By the weekend, some chance for rainfall continues as residual
moisture lingers across the area and interacts with several weak
disturbances that will cross the area in westerly flow aloft.
Otherwise it will be cooler as easterly/northeasterly low-level flow
will keep temperatures rather cool. In fact, highs Sunday will
likely not reach much above 75 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 629 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Scattered thunderstorms and areas of MVFR ceilings can be
expected across southwest Nebraska this morning. VFR should
develop all areas this afternoon. Another round of thunderstorms
should move east into the area this evening. Strong wind gusts
will likely accompany these storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 140 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Beginning Tuesday and continuing through Friday, critical or
near critical fire weather conditions will be possible,
especially in fire zone 204 where fuels are ready to burn. Winds
on Tuesday will be southerly with potential gusts up to 40 MPH
in the western Sandhills and eastern panhandle. A fire weather
watch is in effect for this zone for Tuesday afternoon through
mid evening. On Wednesday, winds will shift to the west with
potential to gust up to 45 MPH. Widespread minimum RH of 10 to
20 percent is expected across all of western and north central
Nebraska. Critical fire weather conditions will hinge on fuel
status which currently favors zone 204. West and northwest winds
will remain gusty on Thursday with afternoon gusts up to 35
MPH. Minimum RH will range from around 10 percent in the eastern
panhandle to around 25 percent in the northeast. Friday will
see near critical or possibly critical fire weather conditions
in the west. Afternoon wind gusts up to 30 MPH are possible
along with minimum RH west of highway 83 of 11 to 18 percent.
Winds are forecast to be lighter Saturday and Sunday which will
alleviate fire weather concerns across the area.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening for NEZ204.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Taylor
FIRE WEATHER...Buttler