386
FXUS63 KLBF 102325
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
625 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible each evening
  through Wednesday. Each day, a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5)
  covers portions of the region, with damaging winds and large
  hail looking to be the main threats each day.

- Thunderstorms on Wednesday may also pose a risk for heavy
  rainfall in addition to the risks for large hail and damaging
  winds.

- The weather pattern will shift to cooler and wetter late week
  into the weekend. Monsoonal moisture will bring daily chances
  for precipitation across the region, with heavy rainfall
  possible.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

An upper level high is observed across the Desert Southwest, with
subtle upper level ridging across the Intermountain West and Great
Plains. Further to the west, an upper level trough can be observed
in water vapor satellite imagery approaching the West Coast. A
subtle shortwave trough can be seen tracking across north central
Colorado as of this afternoon. At the surface, a low pressure system
is observed across western Nebraska, with surface boundaries
observed north and south of the low. While the temperature gradient
across these boundaries is not overtly great, there is a notable
change in dewpoints as well as a wind shift.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Storms are expected to initiate near the surface boundary later this
afternoon into the evening, bringing potential for severe weather
later this evening. In fact, a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) has been
issued for the all of the region west of Highway 83, with some
coverage into north central Nebraska, with a Marginal Risk (Level 1
of 5) covering the rest. A shortwave trough currently observed
across north central Colorado is expected to track east by this
evening, locally enhancing deep layer shear. Though stratus was slow
to clear this morning, plenty of daytime heating across the region
combined with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s will allow for
ample instability across the region. As seen in the 18z KLBF
sounding, CAPE values have already exceeded 3,000 J/kg, despite the
stratus remaining through the morning, leaving plenty of instability
for strong storms this evening.

CAM guidance remains fairly in consensus for storms developing along
the surface boundary, tracking east across the region. Any storm
tonight will bring the potential for strong wind gusts and large
hail. However, some subtle differences in the environment may set up
two distinct threat areas. Across southwest Nebraska, especially
just west of the surface boundary, lower dewpoint values lead to
slightly more of an inverted-V appearance in forecast soundings.
This would support the greater threat for severe wind gusts across
portions of southwest Nebraska. As storms track east into the better
moisture, may begin to see a hail threat increase, provided storms
remain more isolated in nature. However, if storms remain more
tightly packed in a line, there may simply be too much competition
and updraft seeding to provide a greater hail threat, but this would
still support a risk for damaging wind gusts. Further north, across
the Sandhills, storms are expected to initiate in a much more moist
airmass, which may support more surface based convection, especially
as storms track east. These storms are expected to have a deeper
updraft, which may support a greater hail threat compared to a wind
threat. However, as storms lose daytime heating, expect that the
severe threat will mostly wind down late evening, with remnant
storms still bringing a risk for lightning and perhaps some locally
heavy rainfall amounts.

The next concern overnight will once again be the potential for
patchy and potentially dense fog to form. With dewpoints remaining
high overnight, especially areas to the east of Highway 83, there
will be ample low level moisture across the region. Surface winds
are expected to be fairly light and variable in the wake of any
thunderstorm activity overnight, which may also aid in the formation
of fog. As a low level inversion develops again tonight, thinking
this moisture will remain trapped in the lowest layers of the
atmosphere. The area of greatest concern will remain areas in north
central Nebraska, mainly along and east of Highway 83. However, as
with the previous mornings, cannot rule out a secondary area along
the Interstate 80 corridor, especially along the river valleys and
near Lake McConaughy. While confidence is not quite high enough to
issue a Dense Fog Advisory at this time, those out and about
tomorrow morning may want to prepare for potentially foggy
conditions and reduced visibility.

Tuesday, the upper level trough is expected to push closer to the
Pacific Coast, with the upper level high across the Desert Southwest
lifting to the north. With this subtle change in the upper level
flow, expecting that the strongest winds aloft will also gradually
lift north, with the main core of the jet stream settling over the
Dakotas. While the better severe weather set up will generally fall
in line with the stronger winds aloft, cannot rule out the potential
for additional strong to severe thunderstorms across the region,
especially more northern portions of the region Tuesday afternoon
and evening. For what it`s worth, the Storm Prediction Center has
expanded a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) into portions of north central
Nebraska, with a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) mostly along and north
of Highway 2. As with the previous nights, the main threats look to
be damaging wind gusts and large hail. While CAM guidance does
indicate a few storms attempting to develop over the Sandhills on
Tuesday afternoon, will need to keep an eye on storms forming across
South Dakota tracking to the southeast. As the environment looks
more supportive for strong to severe storms over South Dakota,
storms tracking across the border may still have a bit more
intensity, locally enhancing the risk for severe weather.

One more thing to consider in the near term. With lower level
stratus remaining across the region, as well as a trend to higher
dewpoints, have seen a slight decrease in expected high temperatures
on Tuesday. Most of the region may experience highs around to
slightly warmer than seasonal, with highs in the upper 80s to lower
90s. The main area of concern for mid to upper 90s has continued to
shrink and is now only along and south and west of an Oshkosh to
North Platte to Stockville line. Even with the ample dewpoints,
expecting that heat index values will also remain in the upper 90s,
potentially pushing near 100 for an hour or two.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

The upper level trough is expected to begin tracking across the West
Coast by Wednesday, which bringing a pattern shift through the end
of the week and into the weekend. As the trough slowly pushes east,
this will also set up a stream of lower level monsoonal moisture
across the region. With this push of monsoonal moisture, expect near
daily precipitation chances, with higher PWATs across the region.
Also, expect to see more seasonal highs on Wednesday, ranging from
the mid 80s to lower 90s across most of the region.

However, before this pattern shift begins in earnest, will have to
deal with another potential round of severe weather Wednesday
evening. In fact, SPC has already place western Nebraska in a Day 3
Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5). While some of the mesoscale features
will still need to be resolved to more accurately assess the severe
threat, expecting this will at least bring a risk for damaging wind
gusts and large hail yet again. In addition to the potential severe
risk, expect to see higher PWAT values creep into the region, which
will favor the potential for heavy rainfall as well. With this in
mind, the Weather Prediction Center has already highlighted the
entire region with a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall. In fact,
WPC has a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall Wednesday, Thursday,
and Friday, given the push of monsoonal moisture. Will obviously be
keeping a close eye on this set up over the next few forecast cycles
to better determine exact risks. However, for now, at least another
night of potentially strong to severe storms with heavy rainfall
appears possible.

Thursday and into the weekend, will see quite a different weather
pattern compared to early this week. Highs late week are expected to
be around 10 to 15 degrees cooler than average, with highs mostly
expected to remain in the 70s. This will in large part be due to
very cloudy skies limiting daytime heating. However, there may also
be a push of cooler temperatures aloft across the Northern Plains
reaching into portions of the region, which will further help limit
temperatures. The push of monsoonal moisture will remain across the
region, helping keep higher PWAT values across most of the region,
and potentially bringing some beneficial rainfall across most of the
region. Ensemble guidance continues to suggest a respectable chance
that most of the region will receive at least one inch of total
rainfall through the end of the week, with the European ensembles
showing a 60 to 70 percent chance of this occurring, and the GEFS
showing a 40 to 50 percent chance. Within this data, also seeing
some potential for higher amounts in some of the ensemble members.
However, this does build confidence in daily precipitation chances
late week into the weekend, with the potential for some locally
heavy amounts, as well.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Outside of thunderstorms, VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through this evening across western and north central Nebraska.
Scattered thunderstorms will persist across the area this
evening and tonight, leading to brief MVFR visibilities and
gusty, erratic winds. Patchy fog and low stratus development is
then possible overnight, with periods of MVFR/IFR CIGs and
visibilities through late tomorrow morning.

Winds become light and variable overnight, at 5kts or less.
East-southeast winds then strengthen tomorrow afternoon, at 10
to 15kts.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Richie
SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Brown