513
FXUS63 KLBF 272322
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
622 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight chances for light rain showers and possibly a
  thunderstorm across northwest Nebraska tonight, though no
  severe weather is expected.

- Rain chances increase late Monday afternoon into Tuesday
  morning. Rain could be heavy at times, as the first push of
  tropical moisture arrives across the region.

- Rain is expected to persist Tuesday through Wednesday night,
  eventually tracking out by Thursday morning. This second push
  of tropical moisture may lead to locally heavy rainfall,
  especially across southwest and central Nebraska.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 201 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

An active weather pattern develops over the next several days, as
moisture from ongoing tropical systems in the Pacific is advected
across the region. A weak upper level ridge is still observed across
the region, with a deep upper level trough continuing to dig along
the Pacific Coast. Water vapor satellite imagery shows the moisture
from the remnants of Tropical Storm Odalys beginning to track
northeast in the upper level flow. Given the expected progression of
the trough, expecting that this push of moisture will track across
western Nebraska some time tomorrow, allowing for a very moist
environment.

This evening, showers and potentially a thunderstorm may develop
along a surface boundary currently across northwest Nebraska. With
strong southeasterly advection prevailing today, expect this front
will eventually lift to the north, bringing the main bulk of any
precipitation chances into South Dakota. Depending on the timing,
though, there is a chance for some light rain showers across
portions of northwest Nebraska, mainly near Pine Ridge. Given the
marginal shear aloft and fairly stable environment, do not expect
any severe weather, if a thunderstorm were to develop. Along with
this potential, winds are expected to increase out of the south and
southeast tonight. This increase in winds should help to limit fog
developing overnight, even though the environment remains very
humid.

Monday, the moisture from remnants of Odalys are expected to arrive
in the region. This surge of tropical moisture will contribute to
fairly high PWATs across the region. With the expected location of
the surface low, this should place most of the region firmly in the
warm sector, with the moisture advection continuing through the day.
This will also allow for gusty southerly winds throughout the day,
with gusts up to 25 to 30 mph. Though in the warm sector,
temperatures remain near seasonal, with high in the low to mid 70s,
with dewpoints remaining in the 60s. By the late afternoon, a cold
front begins to track east, which should provide the forcing for
showers and thunderstorms to develop. This round of moisture is
expected mostly for areas north of Interstate 80, and may bring some
wetting rainfall across most of western Nebraska, the Sandhills, and
north central Nebraska. Guidance suggests that this round of
rainfall could bring one quarter to one half inch across the region,
with locally heavier amounts possible. If thunderstorms can initiate
along the boundary and persist overnight, this could certainly spell
a potential for locally heavy rain amounts, especially along and
north of Highway 2.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 201 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Rain chances continue to Tuesday through Wednesday night, with
locally heavy rainfall expected, especially across southwest and
central Nebraska. Throughout Monday, Hurricane Polo will continue on
its northeast track, gradually weakening as it encounters the
southern jet stream. As the trough in the southern jet continues
tracking east, it will begin to siphon moisture from Polo tracking
it across the Plains. This will provide the second push of deep,
tropical moisture across the Plains. However, there does remain some
slight uncertainty in how far north and west this plume of moisture
tracks. The European solution remains just a bit quicker than the
GFS, which impacts the western extent of the moisture plume.
However, there is strong consensus on this tracking across the
Plains, bringing heavy rainfall. For our area specifically,
confidence is highest along and south of a Grant to Broken Bow line.
Ensemble guidance continues to suggest a strong possibility for
heavier rainfall in the area as well. Latest ensemble guidance
brings a 50 to 70 percent chance of total rainfall exceeding one
inch across southwest Nebraska, with some locations even reaching an
80 percent chance of exceedance. Ensembles also show now a 30 to 50
percent chance of total rainfall exceeding 2 inches, with the
European ensembles on the higher end of probabilities. Further
building confidence in this is the latest EFI/SoT, indicating
anomalous rainfall totals across southwest into northeast Nebraska.
With this growing confidence in heavy rainfall, WPC has expanded the
Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall into portions of southwest and
central Nebraska, with a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall
roughly along and south of an Ogallala to O`Neill line. All this to
say, we could see some very heavy rainfall and potentially some
localized flooding mid week. Will continue to keep an eye on these
forecast trends; however, as seen over the last few days, confidence
continues to build in heavy rainfall this week. Make sure to stay
weather aware!

Thursday into the weekend, the upper low slowly tracks east,
remaining south of the region. This is expected to pull in some
cooler air from Canada, which is trending us towards a cooler end of
the week. Highs now are expected to remain in the 60s, which is
slightly cooler than our normal highs around 71 to 72 degrees for
early October. This cooler push may bring our overnight lows closer
to seasonal however, as lows Thursday night onward are now expected
to drop into the mid to upper 40s. This does remain slightly above
our normal lows for early October, as we normally see lows around 41
to 43 degrees. However, this will be cooler than our recent stretch
of lows in the 50s. Those with outdoor plants or animals may want to
take precaution as we continue to cool off heading into October.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Look for cloud cover to increase over the next 12 hours at both
the KLBF and KVTN terminals with MVFR to IFR ceilings developing
overnight. Ceilings may fall as low as 800 FT AGL at the KLBF
terminal and as low as 1000 FT AGL at the KVTN terminal.
Ceilings will gradually lift by late moring with broken ceilings
ranging from 5000 to 10000 FT AGL. Winds will become southerly
overnight with gusts up to 25 to 30 KTS possible from late
morning through late afternoon Monday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Buttler