819
FXUS63 KLBF 251740
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1240 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon and
evening

*Cooler temperatures across northern Nebraska this afternoon

*Another chance for strong to severe thunderstorms Wednesday

*Additional precipitation chances at the end of the week

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 358 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

A weak cold front that has pushed across northern Nebraska will
keep temperatures cooler with highs in the low to mid 80s
across northern Nebraska. Temperatures will remain warm across
southern Nebraska with highs reaching the mid to upper 90s.
There will be elevated fire concerns across far southwestern
Nebraska, Fire Weather zone 210 as min RH will reach near 17
percent. Winds however will remain sustained around 10 to 15 mph
with gust up to 20 mph.

As for thunderstorm potential, thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon into early evening. The greatest potential will be across
north central Nebraska where dew points will be in the upper 60s.
Bulk shear values will range from 25 to 30 kts. 0 to 3 km CAPE
values will be around 3000 to 4000 J/kg. CAMs continue to show
convection developing around 22z and moving out of the area by 03z.
Expect thunderstorms to to grow upscale rapidly and be more discrete
supercells, with large hail and damaging winds being the main
concern. However can`t rule out an isolated tornado as there will be
a narrow corridor of decent 0 to 3 km helicity around 200 to 300
across north central Nebraska.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 358 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

For Wednesday a weak shortwave to the west may become the focus
for a few isolated thunderstorms to develop across western WY
and move into western Nebraska by Wednesday evening. Dewpoints
will remain quite moist across the area in the upper 50s to low
60s. CAPE values will be around 1000 to 1500 J/kg. An isolated
strong to severe thunderstorm will be possible. A disturbance
will push through on Thursday, bringing another chance for
strong to severe storms Thursday afternoon and evening. A cold
front will move through late Friday, bringing yet again another
chance for thunderstorms Friday evening. Cooler temperatures
behind the cold front will lead to a cooler day on Saturday with
highs in the 70s to low 80s and keeping temperatures cooler on
Sunday as well.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. The
main forecast challenge is determining whether thunderstorms will
develop late this afternoon into the evening across north central
Nebraska. Latest high resolution guidance suggests potential for
strong to severe thunderstorms to develop in the vicinity of KVTN,
but confidence remains low on whether or not the terminal will see
thunderstorms. For now, will leave as a VCTS group, until confidence
increases. Outside of any potential thunderstorms, skies should
remain mostly clear, with winds switching from northerly to easterly
by tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...Richie