424
FXUS63 KLBF 302012
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
312 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread showers and thunderstorms could lead to a threat
  for heavy rainfall Wednesday morning through Thursday morning.
  The greatest threat for heavy rain is south of Highway 23.

- Cooler morning lows return Friday with temperatures in the
  low 40s to potentially the upper 30s. The threat for frost
  appears low at this time.

- Dry weather expected the weekend into at least early next
  week.

- Cooler, below normal highs are expected through the weekend.
  By early next week a warmer, drier airmass will move into the
  area bringing bring highs in the 70s to potentially low 80s
  across western Nebraska, along and west of HWY 61.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Rain continues to overspread southwest Nebraska this afternoon,
though persistent dry air is limiting its northward progression for
areas near and north of I-80. Temperatures this afternoon range from
the low 60s where rain is falling in southwest Nebraska to the lower
70s across northern Nebraska.

Trends continue to suggest the heaviest rainfall will stay off to
the south and east of the area, with the swath of highest amounts
expected across south central into eastern Nebraska through tonight.
The Flood Watch only remains in effect for Chase, Hayes, and
Frontier counties this afternoon, where at least some risk for
locally heavy rainfall exists. Recent high resolution guidance
suggests that the ongoing precipitation will begin to quickly end by
tonight, with accumulating rain largely over by sunrise tomorrow
morning. This coincides with a stronger cold front pushing through
the area from north to south late tonight, bringing with it a much
drier airmass. In all, some location south of HWY 23 may approach
1", but the threat for flooding appears to be diminishing across
southwest Nebraska.

Any lingering precipitation quickly ends by late tomorrow morning,
with dry conditions then expected to persist for the foreseeable
future. Though clouds begin to depart by tomorrow afternoon,
increased cold advection behind the aforementioned cold front holds
highs tomorrow in the 60s across the area. Surface high pressure
settles into eastern Nebraska by Friday morning, promoting light
winds near sunrise. This, combined with clear skies and much drier
air, will allow for efficient radiational cooling across the area.
Lows Friday morning look to fall into the lower 40s, with some
threat for lows to fall into the upper 30s. Trends will continue to
be monitored, as this could lead to the first threat for frost this
Fall. A much more Fall-like day is then on tap for Friday afternoon,
with sunny skies, dry conditions, and highs in the 60s to near 70
degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

As the weekend arrives, upper ridging builds in across western
CONUS. A weak shortwave moves out ahead of the ridge into our area
with gusty south southwest winds, in the range of 15 to 20 gusting
in excess of 35 mph across the central and eastern Sandhills. A
surface low will be situated across western South Dakota. As
this low moves eastward, a cool front will move across Nebraska
throughout the afternoon into the evening and switching winds to
the northeast. Saturday highs could crest to as high as the mid
to upper 70s before this front moves through. Whereas, Sunday
will be cooler with highs being slightly below normal in the mid
to upper 60s. The air moving into our region will be quite dry
so while the cool front would be a lifting mechanism, very
little, to no precipitation is forecasted for the area at this
time.

Heading into early next week, the Upper ridging from the West Coast
continues to move across the Rockies and into the Great Plains. This
will promote warmer, drier conditions across much of the region.
While highs Monday will favor warmer temperatures across western
Nebraska (highs in the mid to upper 70s), this will still be around
near normals for the season. The drier airmass could create some
gusty winds as the air mixes to the surface. There is some relative
agreement from guidance that areas in North Central Nebraska have at
least a 50 to 60 percent chance of seeing wind gusts in excess of 30
mph. Tuesday looks to be the peak in the warming trend where highs
in the mid to upper 70s are likely across the region, with a
possibility of southwest Nebraska and the eastern Panhandle to top
out in the low 80s along and west of HWY 61.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Low stratus and precipitation will continue to lead to
IFR/locally LIFR CIGs and visibilities across portions of
southwest Nebraska into this evening. This system will slowly
begin to exit into tomorrow, with VFR conditions returning for
southwest Nebraska terminals late tomorrow morning.

Winds remain east-northeast through tonight, at 5 to 10kts.
Winds then strengthen from the north tomorrow, with gusts of 20
to 30kts expected tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Thursday evening for NEZ069>071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...MRS
AVIATION...Brown