


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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804 FXUS63 KLBF 042351 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 651 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Critical fire weather conditions and strong south winds expected into this evening. - Thunderstorms with isolated damaging wind gusts are possible across western Nebraska this evening. - After a cool start to next week, temperatures will gradually warm through the coming week with mainly dry conditions. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 302 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025 Potent shortwave located across southwest Wyoming this afternoon. This feature will shift quickly northeastward tonight. Surface low pressure continues to deepen across northeast Colorado this afternoon will shift northeastward toward central South Dakota this evening as the shortwave begins to eject toward the northern plains. A surface trough will trail back to the southwest from the low across northwest Nebraska through early this evening, meanwhile a cold front will be surging across the Panhandle. Strong southerly winds will be in place through this evening, and with relative humidity values in the 20-30% range across much of the area east of the trough, will continue the Red Flag Warning through mid-evening. As expected the airmass just ahead of the surface trough is quite dry with surface dew points in the lower to mid 40s. This is due to drier air being advected in from western Kansas and eastern Colorado. The more moist air is displaced from the surface trough, with mid 50s to lower 60s dew points remaining east of Highway 183. Nevertheless, with such dynamics and forcing aloft, a line of convection should erupt late this afternoon and early evening across the Panhandle. HRRR/CAMs show the potential for at least isolated damaging wind gusts across the Panhandle into western Nebraska this evening as the line quickly moves northeastward. As the upper forcing quickly moves northeast into the Dakotas, convection should weaken fairly rapidly, but a strong storm or two could reach as far east as the Highway 83 corridor around 9-10pm CDT or so. A cold front will make it`s way across the area late tonight with the front settling south of the area across Kansas Sunday night. Convection is likely to develop north of the boundary late Sunday night as lift/FGEN increase north of the front as the LLJ intensifies to the south of the boundary. Most of rainfall will stay to the southeast of the area but do have at least some chance for showers across the area. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 302 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025 Upper level ridging aloft looks to take shape as we head into next week. A small quick moving shortwave does cross the area Wednesday afternoon and evening. This could bring a small chance for showers but nothing in the way of much measurable rainfall is expected. Expect a cool start to the week behind the departing weekend system. Then, as the upper level ridging takes hold, a return to highs in the mid to upper 70s are expected by Thursday and Friday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 637 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025 There will be LLWS this evening through midnight across portions of the Sandhills into north central and southwest Nebraska. Winds just off the sfc will be around 50 kts out of the south. SFC winds will also be gusty through the evening hours out of the south around 15 to 25 kts with gust near 40 kts. Winds will decrease through the overnight to around 5 to 15 kts, then increase again by mid-morning, switching to the northwest around 15 to 20 kts with gust up to 30 kts. There will also be chances for showers and thunderstorms this evening with a line of scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to move through, gusty winds will be the main concern, with some small hail possible. Showers and thunderstorms will be mostly out of the area by midnight. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 302 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025 Critical fire weather conditions will continue into this evening across all of western and north central Nebraska. Temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s will combine with dry air and keep humidity values in the 20 to 30 percent range this afternoon and evening. In addition, strong south winds persist ahead of a cold front, with widespread gusts of 40 to 50 miles per hour continuing. By late this evening, the cold front will begin to move east across the area, leading to a wind shift from south to west to northwest by sunrise Sunday morning. Cooler temperatures will be ushered into the area behind this front, and keep fire concerns lower into next week. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for NEZ204-206-208>210-219. && $$ SHORT TERM...Taylor LONG TERM...Taylor AVIATION...Gomez FIRE WEATHER...Brown