783
FXUS63 KLBF 251739
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1139 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A High Wind Warning remains in effect Tuesday as northwest
  winds quickly ramp up this morning with gusts of around 60
  mph, strongest across north central Nebraska.

- Expect quiet but cool weather for Wednesday and Thursday,
  allowing favorable travel conditions for the Thanksgiving
  holiday.

- Multiple weak impulses traverse the region Friday through the
  weekend, bringing multiple windows for light snow to the area
  and potentially impacting post-holiday travel.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 326 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Early morning observations show the well advertised cold front
beginning its northwest to southeast trek across the Sandhills.
Current placement as of ~08z (2am CST) shows a placement around an
IML to VTN line, or immediately east of that line. Ahead of this
line, shallow fog largely confined to the valleys or sheltered
areas. This will likely be short-lived as the frontal boundary, with
its increased low-level mixing due to stronger winds, will
effectively sweep out the lingering low-level moisture. Temperatures
ranged from lower 40s ahead of the boundary to middle and lower 30s
behind.

For today...winds will quickly ramp up as daytime temperatures begin
their diurnal trend. Strong CAA off the surface combined with
warming below will promote steep low-level lapse rates. This will
allow a moderate mixed layer to tap into a belt of stronger flow
aloft. As a cut-off low takes shape across eastern South Dakota,
height fields will compress aloft and promote increasing kinematics.
While the High Wind Warning encompasses all of the local forecast
area, believe the window to achieve High Wind criteria (58+ mph
gusts) is very brief southwest of a Merriman to Broken Bow line.
This will likely be through mid-morning with decreasing flow aloft
thereafter. Further northeast and in closer proximity to the parent
disturbance, flow off the surface should remain elevated as a h85
trough axis dives southeast through South Dakota. This will help
maintain 50+ knot flow roughly 2kft off the ground. BUFKIT soundings
show fairly unanimous output that areas to the north and east of the
previously mentioned Merriman to Broken Bow line should realize
adequate mixing to help draw these stronger winds to the surface. A
deeper dive shows largely uniform flow through this mixed layer thus
allowing for efficient momentum transfer. Ensemble guidance shows a
bullseye for wind probabilities roughly in the
Valentine/O`Neill/Broken Bow triangle and it`s here where the
stronger forecast wind gusts are located. Further supporting this is
EPS and HREF guidance where probabilities of exceeding 55+ mph gusts
top out around 50-60%. There is a fairly sharp decrease the south
and west and it`s here, across southwest Nebraska, where confidence
wanes considerably in seeing the same magnitude of gusts. Will
maintain the inherited High Wind Warning as is but believe potential
exists for this area to be cancelled early. The strong cold-air
advection will hold daytime temperatures in check with forecast
highs only reaching the middle 30s north to middle 40s south.

Mid-afternoon through tonight...As the upper-low spins to the north,
wrap around precipitation will settle south along the Nebraska/South
Dakota border. While dry air will be hard to overcome, the steep low-
level lapse rates extending up into the DGZ should allow for some
flurries if not light snow along and north of Highway 20 and east of
Highway 83. Though accumulations should remain very light if any
were to occur, the steep lapse rates and expected wind gusts could
hamper travel with squall-like bursts leading to some reduced
visibility. Folks should remain aware of this threat if traveling in
the immediate area. Winds should weaken quickly this evening as
pressure rises subside and high pressure noses in. Expect a very
cold night in the relative sense, with lows falling to the teens to
near 20F in the far east. Even though the descriptor chosen is "very
cold", these values are only around 5-10F below normal for areas
west of Highway 83.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 326 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Wednesday/Thanksgiving...expect favorable conditions to start the
holiday travel period. Behind departing trough, northwesterly flow
will remain in place across the central and northern Plains. Modest
height rises and resulting subsidence will likely quell any
potential for precipitation across the area as temperatures steadily
fall. The lone exception to this may be the southern Panhandle into
southwest Nebraska Wednesday where a pseudo-warm front may setup.
Southerly flow into this density gradient may be enough to produce
some light QPF but forecast soundings depict largely mid-level
saturation with little lift and dry air at the surface. Similarly,
deterministic solutions are largely dry and ensembles like the
EPS/GEFS only suggest 30-50% potentially of seeing QPF exceeding
0.01". Will go ahead and maintain a dry forecast for this period as
a result. Daytime highs will settle in the upper 30s northeast to
middle 40s southwest each day Wednesday and Thursday with light and
variable winds.

Friday into the weekend...perhaps a more active period which could
introduce some travel impacts to the area. At this time, moderate
and even heavy snow does not appear likely but light snow
accumulations are possible in a few distinct windows: early Friday
morning across far north central Nebraska, late Friday into early
Saturday across much of the area, then again Sunday beginning in the
early morning across much of the area. The latter of these windows
appears to be of most significance both in magnitude and timing
being the final day of the post-holiday weekend when travel numbers
will likely peak. Northwesterly flow will persist into the weekend
until ridge breakdown begins upstream as a shortwave trough moves
ashore the Pacific Northwest. Height falls begin Friday with the
main trough settling into the Central Rockies sometime early
Saturday. Temperatures are likely to cool as a result of encroaching
high pressure from the north. While light accumulating snow may
occur in our far northeast zones Friday, the brunt of impacts from
the window should remain east and north of the area. Light snow will
continue off and on through the day Saturday as a cold front dives
south towards a developing surface low across the OK/TX panhandles.
More broad upslope flow ahead of an approaching longwave trough will
support more widespread and persistent forcing for ascent. This
leads to more expansive PoPs and greater potential for
accumulations. Ensembles hint at closer to 0.10-0.15" QPF for Sunday
which is likely to fall as all snow. This suggests the potential for
1-2" of snowfall across the area. While this likely falls short of
requiring any headlines, the timing coincident with a heavy travel
period raises concern about potential impacts. Will advise following
shifts to monitor trends closely. Forecast highs fall from the 40s
Friday to the upper 20s/lower 30s for Saturday and Sunday. Forecast
highs at LBF/VTN for Sunday fall below the 25th percentile in their
respective climatology`s. While not overly significant for late
November/early December, this will be the coldest temperatures of
the season thus far and folks should take adequate precautions. This
is especially true for those with travel plans.

Monday and beyond...confidence in upper-level pattern evolution to
start next week wanes considerably by the start of the work week.
Large scale troughing appears likely to reside somewhere in the
central Plains to middle Mississippi Valley. Where precisely this
sets up will have large implications on the going forecast. Overall
thoughts though are for temperatures to moderate at least some and
this is emphasized by the NBM median values for MaxT and MinT values
steadily climbing from Monday through Wednesday. While a colder day
certainly appears possible for Monday, temperatures should rebound
above the freezing mark by Tuesday for most if not all and further
increases appear probable for Wednesday where NBM 25th Percentile
values recover to the 30s and 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1136 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. Winds will
remain strong through early evening out of the northwest around
30 to 40 kts with gust of 50 kts or more at times. Winds will
diminish this evening but will still remain breezy before
midnight around 10 to 15 kts with gust up to 25 kts, before
switching to the west Wednesday morning around 5 kts.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for
NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...Gomez