377
FXUS63 KLBF 131756
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1256 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Moderate to high confidence in some isolated to scattered
thunderstorms this evening with a marginal severe risk.

- Moderate confidence in strong to severe thunderstorms again
Friday night with a heavy rain and flooding potential.


- Rain/thunderstorm chances will continue Saturday. Locally heavy
rainfall will be possible.

- Somewhat drier conditions are expected Sunday into the first of
next week. There will still be a chance for isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms, however.

- Below normal high temperatures are expected Saturday through
  the first of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 143 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are currently pushing across north central
Nebraska and are expected to continue moving eastward through the
early morning hours. Significant instability still exists across the
region, especially east of US-83, which should provide a favorable
environment to sustain at least stronger storms, if not severe. That
being said, a SPC thunderstorm watch remains in effect through 3am
CT across much of the region with very large hail as well as
damaging wind gusts as the main threats. There is also a potential
to see some heavy rainfall with these storms as they begin to
transition to more stratiform in nature later this morning (before
sunrise). At this time, not anticipating widespread flooding, but
some area creeks and streams could see rises leading to some
localized minor flooding, especially in ditches and low lying areas.

Lingering showers will likely continue throughout the day on
Thursday across northern Nebraska (mainly north of Highway 2). While
heavy rainfall is not anticipated, this additional showers may
enhance the flooding potential across this area. Elsewhere, cloudy
skies are expected. The next round of thunderstorms arrives Thursday
night, after 6pm. Main area of severe potential will be across the
south as isolated rain showers in the north is expected to hinder
severe convection. However, there is also some concern that clouds
across the south could also limit severe potential. If some breaks
in the cloud cover can be made during the afternoon, it should
provide enough support for some low end severe storms later in the
evening. Model instability remains weak across the region, though,
so any storms that can develop will likely struggle to maintain
severe criteria.

A repeat of the past couple days will persist into Friday night,
with a mostly dry forecast throughout the day. Isolated thunderstorm
chances return by late afternoon and into the evening as peak
heating occurs and instability hits a maximum. At this time,
instability does appear weaker than the past few days, but some
stronger to briefly severe storms cannot be ruled out. One thing
that is more certain is that regardless of severe thunderstorms,
there is a heavy rain potential on Friday night. With PWATs across
the area ranging generally from 1.30 to 1.75, confidence in heavy
rainfall and therefore localized flooding is high. This is supported
by a slight ERO across portions of the area. However, a lot will
depend on the speed of the storm track and whether rainfall can
accumulate in one area to add to a flooding concern. Will need to
continue to monitor this flooding and heavy rain potential over the
next day.

As far as temperatures go, highs will fall back below normals
through the end of the week ranging from the mid 70s to the mid 80s
both today and Friday. Overnight lows will remain near normals,
dropping into the upper 50s to low 60s through Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 143 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026


Upper level ridging will remain anchored across the southeast CONUS
yet Saturday. The center of the upper high will gradually translate
back westward into the desert southwest by early next week. ENS/GEFS
mean PWAT values are very high yet Saturday, as
monsoonal/subtropical moisture aloft flows northeastward from
western Mexico on the northwest periphery of the upper level high.
ENS continues to suggest PWAT values greater than 1.8" (which would
be exceeding the the 90th percentile). A shortwave is forecast to
track northeastward across the area Saturday. Showers and
thunderstorms will be likely as a cold front sliding southward
provides a focus for convective development. Mid and upper flow
supports some training/backbuilding potential, which could localize
heavy rainfall. The 12/12Z ENS mean QPF Saturday is around 0.3 to
0.5" across the area during the day Saturday. Will have to monitor
with such high water content in the atmosphere, as locally heavier
amounts will be possible where any training or backbuilding of
convection occurs. This seems most likely to occur across southwest
into central Nebraska where the front is forecast to be located by
late Saturday afternoon.

By Sunday, as the southern plains upper high begins to migrate back
westward the flow aloft becomes more westerly. At the surface, weak
Canadian high pressure builds into the area behind the cold front.
PWAT values decrease some as the flow aloft turns more westerly, and
appears convection will focus more south of the area across
Kansas near the cold front.

As the ridge becomes established across the desert southwest early
next week, flow aloft becomes more northwesterly. Although PWAT
values decrease some, there will still be sufficient moisture both
at the surface and aloft. This appears to be a set up for
for at least isolated southeastward tracking convection.

Temperatures will average below normal Saturday into the first of
next week. Highs will average in the mid 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Stratus and even some patchy fog will continue across most of
the Sandhills into north central Nebraska, including both KLBF
and KVTN terminals. There will be periods of IFR or lower
through the next 24 hours across both terminal sites. There will
also be the chance for thunderstorms this evening into the
overnight/early morning hours, however the exact location of
where thunderstorms develop tonight is still uncertain, there is
the potential for both terminal sites to be impacted. Winds will
be breezy through the day out of north to northeast around 5 to
10 kts with gusts up to 20 kts.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Gomez