486
FXUS63 KLBF 012022
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
322 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and a few general thunderstorms remain
  possible through late this afternoon, however, no severe
  weather is expected.

- Monitoring the potential for patchy dense fog again Tuesday morning,
  particularly for along and east of Highway 83.

- Roller coaster temperatures this week will see values range
  from upper 70s to middle 80s at their warmest (Tuesday) to
  upper 60s to lower 70s at their coolest (Wednesday and again
  Friday).

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 321 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

This afternoon, scattered cumulus has developed across much of west
central Nebraska. This was occurring on the backside of a weak h5
trough that was slowly tracking south and east along the middle
Missouri River valley. Modest CAA will helping drive some steepening
of low-level lapse rates. This in turn was leading to some isolated
to widely scattered shower activity east of Highway 83. Even so,
lapse rates were poor at best which was helping to limit much in the
way of precipitation reaching the ground. MUCAPE values were largely
less than 1000 j/kg and with loss of daytime heating later today,
expecting a swift end to any shower/shallow convection potential.
Will keep PoPs around 20% or less with dry conditions returning by
this evening. Steady northerly winds around 10-15 mph should subside
tonight as they veer to easterly then southerly towards daybreak
Tuesday. The light and veering winds should again support the threat
for at least patchy fog this evening. SREF/HREF probabilities for
falling below 1SM have been on the increase with consecutive runs
and currently top out around 40-60% for much of the area. Will again
insert patchy fog mention and advise subsequent shifts to monitor
need for Dense Fog Advisories once confidence increases. Lows will
fall to the low to middle 50s across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 321 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Tuesday...dry conditions appear likely to return to the area for
Tuesday. NBM 90th percentile output paints zero QPF across the area
as we are caught between departing longwave trough to the east and
the next shortwave diving south out of Canada in the highly
meridional flow. WAA begins early in the day as westerly low-level
flow sets up across the region. This will favor warming temperatures
with h85 values seeing a steady climb back to around 25C in our
western zones by mid-afternoon. The result will be afternoon highs
ranging from upper 70s east to middle 80s west. A surface trough
will settle across the Sandhills with gusty northwest winds behind
this feature. Coincident with the warmer temperatures, afternoon
humidity values will fall into the upper teens and introduce at
least a threat for elevated fire concerns. Forecast soundings show
moderately deep boundary layers with momentum transfer gust
potential approaching 20 to 25 mph. This falls in line well with NBM
probabilities which highlight far western Sandhills up through the
Pine Ridge as 60%+ probabilities of exceeding 22 knots (25 mph)
gusts. Will cap the gusts at 25 mph however knowing the NBM tends to
run hot regarding wind speeds. While fire weather headlines are not
likely, caution is advised to persons in the area regarding the
potential for any fire starts.

Wednesday...deep troughing will settle south near International
Falls with delayed height falls arriving by early Wednesday. Though
upper-level dynamics remain greatest well north and east of the
local area, modest height falls will coincide with a progressive
cool front settling south out of the Northern Plains. As was the
thinking yesterday, timing of this front appears to be late morning
which may be late enough to allow for a fairly mild day across our
southern zones while CAA ramps up across the north and leads to more
expansive clouds and cooler temperatures. Though FROPA does not
appear to be completely dry, the lack of greater dynamics limits
rain potential. PoPs remain confined to our north and northeast
zones while generally remaining below 30 percent. NBM probabilities
for exceeding 0.10" for the calendar day are poor, peaking around
25% near the Missouri River with 0-10% elsewhere. Because of this,
see no reason to stray from inherited forecast. Temperatures will
range from near 80F in the south to upper 60s in the northeast.

Thursday and beyond...temperatures quickly rebound for the latter
half of the week as we only see a glancing blow of the cooler
temperatures. Surface high pressure will settle south through the
region Thursday. Return westerly flow will develop during the day
and help boost temperatures once again to upper 70s and 80s. The
westerly flow will also promote drier air working in off the higher
terrain and the combined warmth and dry air will promote the threat
for elevated fire conditions again in our west. Humidity minimums
will fall into the lower 20s and gusty winds approaching 30 mph. The
stronger winds are supported by increased NBM probabilities of
exceeding 34 knots (40 mph) in our west. Will need to closely watch
this potential and seek out fuel status information to supplement
the threat. Temperatures fall slightly for Friday but remain near
normal for the time of year as secondary high pressure settles
south. This should keep much of the moist air out of the local area
and this along with lack of any more notable disturbance within the
northwesterly flow will keep dry conditions heading into the
following weekend. Temperatures will generally reach the 70s to low
80s each day Saturday and Sunday. Once again we`ll see a return to
well above normal temperatures for the start of next week though NBM
spreads remain fairly large so confidence in this is limited.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Early morning fog and low clouds have waned leading to a return
of MVFR/VFR conditions to area terminals.

Through this afternoon, expect low-level cumulus to persist
across the area with impacts of MVFR/low-end VFR CIGs as a
result. Eventually, clouds will break enough to yield a return
to VFR conditions. Tonight, expansive low stratus and fog will
again be something to watch. To what magnitude of impacts at LBF
and VTN remains somewhat uncertain. Have IFR conditions
returning to LBF but kept lesser impacts in for VTN for now.
Will need to monitor trends and adjust subsequent forecasts.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...NMJ