917
FXUS63 KLBF 291142
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
642 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expect likely precipitation today through Wednesday night with
  heavy rain possible from southwestern into central and eastern
  Nebraska. A flood watch is in effect for Tuesday night through
  Thursday.

- After some chance for showers across southwest Nebraska
  Thursday, drier and cooler temperatures are expected through
  the weekend. Temperatures will average several degrees below
  normal during this time frame. Despite the cooler weather, not
  expecting any frost or freeze conditions just yet.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 252 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Precipitation chances
and the threat for heavy rain continues to highlight near term
forecast challenges. Favorable lift for precipitation will shift
east this morning and should bring a temporary hiatus to
precipitation chances this morning into the early afternoon hours.
By this evening, a second lead disturbance with favorable mid level
warm air advection and lift will track from southwestern Kansas into
southern and southeastern Nebraska. With respect to the second round
of precipitation tonight: The latest deterministic NAM soln keeps
the bulk of precipitation confined to south central and southeastern
Nebraska with a sharp cutoff in precipitation chances noted along
and north of a line from Ogallala to O`Neill. The latest NBM
forecast tonight is trending more toward this latest NAM12 soln
which also has support from the GFS soln from 18z earlier today. The
EC soln from 18z has also shows limited precipitation chances
tonight for the bulk of the forecast area and highlights far
southern portions of the FA for precipitation. In summary, this
second round of precipitation has trended south with the latest
model runs and is not looking as promising for precipitation Tuesday
night. By Wednesday morning, the upper level low will track into New
Mexico. Downstream of this feature surface low pressure will develop
and track northeast from northeastern New Mexico into western
Kansas. A broad shield of precipitation on the northern periphery of
the surface low will lift north from Kansas into southwestern and
south central Nebraska by daybreak Wednesday morning. This shield
will push north into southwestern, central and eastern Nebraska
during the day Wednesday, continuing into at least Wednesday evening
and possibly longer. This third episode appears to have the best
chances for 1+" of QPF for the area along and south of a line from
Grant, to North Platte to Bartlett. Inherited a flood watch for this
area and based on tonight`s forecast trends, believe this continues
to be on track. ATTM, the best chances for flooding still appear to
be from Perkins to southern Lincoln and southern Custer County and
points south. The latest NBM ensemble forecast of 24 hr QPF > 1.00"
(ending at 7AM CT Thursday), has a better than 60% chance of
exceedance along and south of a line from Grant, to North Platte to
Broken Bow. It is important to note with tonight`s runs is the sharp
cutoff in precipitation on the northern periphery of the deformation
band has tightened up tonight and this is reflected in the latest
NBM forecast. In summary, the main changes to this morning`s
forecast were to tighten up precipitation chances on the northern
periphery of the system, with little to no changes in total QPF for
the next 48 hours along and south of a line from Ogallala to
O`Neill. Pops were also decreased today across the area as we will
be between rounds 1 (through daybreak this morning) and 2 (tonight),
with limited forcing noted.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 252 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

The northern stream will begin to influence our weather by Thursday.
This should help steer the upper low from Colorado into
western/central Kansas by Thursday afternoon. Moisture from the
remnants of Hurricane Polo will have been absorbed into the the
upper low`s circulation by Thursday. It appears that a drier,
Canadian airmass associated with high pressure, will be building
southward through the day Thursday. As the precipitation/rain
associated with the upper low Thursday tries to wrap north and
northwest, it will encounter this drier air, so not expecting much
to make it into our area. The best chances will be across far
southwest Nebraska near the Kansas border. By Thursday evening, the
entire system quickly fills and weakens as it moves into eastern
Kansas. Rain chances will completely end for all areas by Thursday
evening. Dry conditions are expected to then persist through the
upcoming weekend. Dry, northwest flow aloft, becomes dominate to the
northeast of expanding upper-level high pressure across the desert
southwest.

Much below normal temperatures are expected Thursday into Friday as
the Canadian airmass settles southward into the plains. Lows
Thursday night will be the coolest so far this season, with lower to
mid 40s forecast. Temperatures do begin to moderate some heading
into the weekend and early next week, but still expecting
temperatures to remain somewhat below average. Glancing over the NBM
10th percentile lows through this period indicate mid 30s or
warmer. So not expecting a frost, or especially a freeze during this
time frame.
 &&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

The threat for rain showers will continue into the overnight
hours for both terminals. With precipitation intensity being
fairly light overnight, visby restrictions will only be as low
as 3 to 4 miles with showers. Ceilings will remain around 6000
FT AGL for both terminals overnight into Tuesday. Ceilings will
fall to 2000 to 3000 FT AGL at the KLBF terminal late this
afternoon persisting into the evening hours. At the KVTN
terminal, ceilings will rise to 9000 to 20000 FT AGL later this
afternoon into the evening hours.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 638 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Scattered showers will be possible today, with conditions
largely expected to remain VFR. Mid and high level cloudiness is
expected tonight. There is some potential for MVFR and localized
IFR ceilings, mainly southeast of a line from IML to LBF to BBW.
Overall surface winds will be light, less than 10 kts through
the period.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from this evening through Thursday evening for
NEZ038-058-059-069>071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Taylor