453
FXUS63 KLBF 201752
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1152 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain is expected for areas near and south of I-80 this
  evening into Friday. Accumulations of 0.25-0.50" are expected
  for areas near and just south of the interstate. Amounts in
  excess of 0.50" are expected for areas south of Highway 23.

- Another system crosses into the Plains Sunday night into
  Monday, with scattered rain possible across the area.

- A much colder airmass overspreads much of the central US into
  the middle of next week, bringing well below average
  temperatures (high temps in the 30s) to the entire area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 339 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Currently, stratus is overspreading much of northern Nebraska,
behind a cold front dropping south into the Sandhills. Areas of
fog have been observed behind this cold front, and is expected
to persist through late this morning. Temperatures range from
the low 40s in northern Nebraska to the upper 20s in central
Nebraska.

For today, expected fog to persist into late morning, as weak cold
advection persists behind the aforementioned southward moving
cold front. Easterly winds then establish across the area this
afternoon, as surface high pressure drops southeastern into
South Dakota and surface low pressure begins to deepen across
southeastern Colorado. This persistent broad upslope flow
suggests cloud cover should hang around through much of the day,
and keep high temperatures cool. The forecast leans on lower
percentile guidance (highs in low 50s), though this still may
not be aggressive enough. This could also allow fog to persist
longer into the early afternoon hours, though confidence in this
remains low for now.

By tonight, an upper low will begin to eject out of the Four
Corners, reaching central Kansas by sunrise Friday. As an associated
surface low begins to eject across Kansas overnight, broad
isentropic ascent develops to the north of this low in southwestern
Kansas. This area of increasing ascent then lifts northwards by
tonight, with rain overspreading areas south of I-80. The north
extent of precipitation still remains somewhat low confidence, due
to increasing dry air into the Sandhills. Still, light accumulations
(<0.10") are possible as far north as HWY 2, with increasing amounts
further south. Amounts of 0.25-0.50" are possible along and just
north of I-80, with amounts >0.50" possible south of Highway 23. The
surface low begins to exit to the southeast Friday afternoon, with
precipitation quickly ending from west to east by Friday evening.
Clouds gradually clear through the night Friday, aided by increasing
subsidence aloft behind the departing upper low.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 339 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

A brief lull awaits as we head into the weekend, as dry
northwest flow establishes aloft. This, combined with
persistent low level warm advection boosts highs back into the
upper 50s to low 60s across the area. By Sunday afternoon,
another upper low will begin to eject northeast out of the Four
Corners, reaching western Kansas by Monday morning. At the
surface, a low will eject out of southeast Colorado, with a cold
front stretching north from this low to another surface low
moving along the International Border. This cold front will
push through the area Monday afternoon, bringing a much cooler
airmass into the area for Tuesday. Scattered rain showers will
be possible again across the area Sunday into Monday as the
surface low ejects across Kansas, though this remains low
confidence for now.

A big pattern shift is then on the way by middle to late next week,
as a reinforcing cold front moves south across the area Tuesday into
Wednesday. Both deterministic and ensemble guidance has
surprisingly good agreement with an extended stretch of well
below average temperatures for middle next week and beyond.
Guidance suggests high temps struggling to leave the 30s for the
upcoming Thanksgiving holiday, and could remain there as we
head towards early December even. With this much colder air in
place, trends will need to be monitored with respect to any
precipitation and any associated wintry precipitation hazards.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1142 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Low clouds will linger through the day with MVFR conditions
across portions of western and north central Nebraska, areas of
the far northern Nebraska including KVTN terminal will see VFR
conditions. Cigs will lower tonight with rain chances increase
this evening. Rain will mainly be across southwest Nebraska
including KLBF terminal and will see lower visibilities with
MVFR to IFR conditions possible at times across southwest
Nebraska. Winds will generally remain light out, less than 10
kts, mostly out of the east for a majority of the forecast
period.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...Gomez