410
FXUS63 KLBF 181958
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
158 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog expected later tonight into Wednesday morning
  across southwest Nebraska.

- Mild temperatures in the low to mid 60s returns for
  Wednesday.

- A storm system will move across Kansas Thursday night into
  Friday. Accumulating rain is possible for areas near and south
  of I-80.

- Dry conditions return for the weekend and early next week,
  with highs in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 158 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Tonight, stratus will exit the area this evening, as high
cloudiness increases. Patchy fog is possible across southwest
Nebraska after 06Z, lasting until mid morning Wednesday.

Wednesday, mild temperatures in the low to mid 60s returns as a
weak cold front moves into the northwest Sandhills by late
afternoon. Skies becoming mostly sunny late morning.

Wednesday night, A closed upper low will track into southern
Arizona. Meanwhile an upper trough and weak cold front will
move across the Dakotas. Winds will become light northeast
across the west and southwest as the latest HRRR and RAP agree
in the development of fog. Will not mention attm, and may need
to include in the next forecast package. Lows mainly in the
lower 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 158 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

The closed low will become a negatively tilted upper trough as
it tracks east into the Four Corners region Thursday afternoon.
This will bring likely POPS Thursday night across far southwest
Nebraska, to only a sight chance near I80 as the upper trough
extends from Colorado into western Kansas. Chances continue on
Friday as the trough moves across Kansas and eventually gets
sheared out. The GFS remains further south, with precipitation
reaching into far southwest Nebraska, though mainly across
Kansas. The ECMWF has a track further north. NBM POPs reach 30
percent as far north as an Alliance through Broken Bow line to
60 percent across the far southwest Nebraska Counties.

Dry conditions forecast Friday night through next Tuesday as
quasi-zonal flow aloft persists. There will be a closed low
tracking across the Desert Southwest Sunday into Sunday night.
Models in fair agreement lifting the closed low across Oklahoma
and Kansas, with dry conditions expected at this time.

Temperatures are forecast to be 10 to 15 degrees above normal
on Thursday and Friday in the 50s. Near 60 Saturday and Sunday,
cooling to the upper 40s to low 50s next Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1126 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

IFR to MVFR ceilings are expected to gradually improve, with VFR
conditions returning to the western Sandhills and southwest by
00Z, 19th. Portions of north central Nebraska should improve to
VFR by mid to late evening. Winds to remain light below 10KT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Roberg