620
FXUS63 KLBF 232312
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
612 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to widely scattered showers with a weak cold front
  tonight, followed by temperatures at or below normal tomorrow.

- Dry with a rapid warm up midweek as temperatures rise above
  normal, then remaining dry and seasonably warm into the
  weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Skies are generally over central and western Nebraska this
afternoon but clouds upstream are approaching from the northwest
with an upper trof digging down into the High Plains evident in
water vapor imagery. As this trof moves through the region
tonight it will push a weak cold front across the area from the
northwest to southeast. Mid level FGEN forcing and deformation
with the front will provide adequate lift, but while ensemble
guidance shows a surge of mid/upper level moisture accompanying
the front low level moisture is very lacking and instability is
best defines as non- zero. Given the lack of instability and low
level moisture anticipate any showers accompanying the front
will be sparse and produce little in the way of meaningful
precipitation, though may be accompanied by some brief breezy
conditions, before the front moves off to our southeast by
daybreak Tuesday morning. Lows tonight range from the middle 40s
northwest to lower 50s further to the southeast. High pressure
surface and aloft then build over Nebraska with quiet and dry
conditions expected thorugh tomorrow. After diurnal heating
mixes the boundary layer there will be a bit of a breeze
tomorrow afternoon as temperatures rise into the 70s, followed
by lows Tuesday night down into the 40s. &&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Signals for high impact weather are absent across the High Plains
for the next several days, with a stretch of warm and dry fall
weather expected across the region.

Ensemble guidance is in good agreement in depicting the upper
trof digging down through the High Plains tonight continuing to
amplify and evolve into a deep closed low that settles over the
lower Mississippi valley by the middle of the week where it
will linger for several days, eventually with potential
interaction with a tropical system moving out of the Gulf and
into the southeastern US. The positioning of the low off to our
southeast will allow central and western Nebraska to stay under
the influence of warm and dry ridging with the main storm track
staying well up into Canada. Ensemble guidance indicates the
earliest moisture may attempt to rotate around the low and try
to push into the region from the east will be late this weekend,
though ensemble QPF plumes remain well clustered near zero and
probabilistic QPF guidance shows little more than a couple
hundreths of precipitation all the way to the 90th percentile.
All in all high confidence in dry conditions into the weekend,
though will still have to see exactly how tropical development
and potential interactions unfold in the Gulf/southeastern US.

Temperatures early in the period will be quite warm as readings
aloft push above the 90th percentile especially across northwest
Nebraska where highs by Thursday will range from the lower 90s near
the Pine Ridge to around 80 further to the southeast across south
central Nebraska. Readings then cool a bit but remain seasonably
warm through the weekend with highs generally in the lower 80s and
lows in the 40s and 50s.

Given the expectation for a prolonged period of warm and dry weather,
will be keeping close tabs on fire weather conditions especially
Thursday as gusts may approach 25 to 30mph during the afternoon
from the sandhills into the northern panhandle.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 615 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through tomorrow evening
across western and north central Nebraska. High clouds move
through tonight and tomorrow morning, though CIGs remain well
into VFR. A weak frontal boundary also pushes through the area,
with winds shifting from south to north, at around 5 to 15kts.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...Brown