


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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902 FXUS63 KLBF 132254 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 554 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chance of showers tonight into Tuesday. - Warmer Wednesday with a threat for thunderstorms Wednesday night. Some strong to severe storms possible in the eastern panhandle and northwestern Sandhills. - Threat for precipitation will linger into Thursday night with dry and seasonal conditions expected Friday through Monday. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 335 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 H5 analysis across the CONUS this morning was highly meridional. High pressure was located over southeastern Texas with a positively tilted ridge extending to the northeast into eastern Ontario. East of this feature, low pressure was located over western Pennsylvania with a trough extending south to off the coast of South Carolina. A broad trough of low pressure was located over the western half of the CONUS. Within this trough, closed low pressure was located over east central Manitoba. A second low was located along the Oregon coast. Between the high over southeastern Texas and the trough anchored over the western CONUS, broad southwesterly flow aloft extended from the Four Corners to the Dakotas, Minnesota and Lake Superior. At the surface...a cold front extended from near Chicago, southwest into southeastern Kansas and southwestern Oklahoma. Abundant cloud cover was noted north of the front and extended from the central and southern Rockies east into Kansas, Missouri and southern and western Nebraska. Across western and north central Nebraska this afternoon, skies were mostly cloudy and temperatures as of 2 PM CT ranged from 53 degrees at Valentine to 63 degrees at Imperial. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 335 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 Surface high pressure, currently over the Dakotas, will retreat north into southern Canada overnight. This will begin to lift the frontal boundary over the southern plains northward increasing cloudiness across the area. At the same time, a tandem of shortwaves will lift northeast from the Four Corners into Colorado. Believe the bulk of this evening will be dry with the best precipitation chances arriving overnight into the morning hours on Tuesday. Given the later timing trend with this morning`s model solns, focused my highest pops Tuesday morning (12z- 18z) across the area. QPF`s will remain light as our lower levels are fairly dry (per forecast soundings) and precipitation aloft will be delayed reaching ground level. Forecast QPF`s remain light on the order of 0.1 to 0.25 inches and are highest over the northeastern forecast area. With this in mind, will focus the highest pops in these areas which top out in the 60-70 percent range Tuesday morning. With respect to highs Tuesday: The latest high res. solutions, keep the warm front well off to the south of the forecast area with low level easterly winds persisting across the forecast area. This will be very favorable for cloud cover across the FA Tuesday, resulting in cooler highs. Current thoughts are to blend highs more toward the cooler MET guidance which would lower the current highs in the mid to upper 60s across southwestern Nebraska. The warm front will lift into south central and southeastern Nebraska overnight Tuesday night with decent low level moisture being advected north into central and southern Nebraska from Kansas. With the degree of low level moisture advection, will need to further monitor model trends for the formation of fog Tuesday night. The latest 12z HRRR, indicates a decent threat for fog development Tuesday night and this seems reasonable given the degree of moisture advection in association with the warm front. This fog development is also supported by the NAM12 visibility product and a 35 to 45 % probability of SFC visibilities < 1SM in the latest SREF ensembles. Would like to see these SREF numbers a little more favorable for fog before mentioning this 36 hours out from now. Will pass on my concerns to the evening shift and have them monitor model trends for Tuesday night. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 335 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 H5 low pressure will lift into the Intermountain West on Wednesday. Surface low pressure will deepen downstream over north central Colorado Wednesday. This will lift the warm front north across Nebraska along with increasing southerly winds and good low level moisture advection. Bufkit soundings indicate good mixing potential with wind gusts of 30 to 40 MPH Wednesday afternoon generally east of the panhandle. Normally, would be concerned about fire weather potential with these expected winds. However, we will advect 50-60 degree dew points into the area Wednesday which will hold minimum RH in the 45 to 60 percent range. By evening, there will be a threat for thunderstorms, along and east of a slow moving cold front. ATTM with the cold front over the northwestern panhandle, feel the main threat for thunderstorms will be off to the west of North Platte proper. As for the severe threat, the latest SWODY3 highlights the panhandle and NW sandhills with a marginal risk. Believe there is a "tight" window for severe storms during peak heating and timing of an approaching jet streak. Speed shear is decent ahead of the approaching H5 trough however timing of the approaching jet streak (ie. evening hours) does not coincide with the greatest instability-ie. max. CAPE (late afternoon). ATTM, wouldn`t be surprised if an isolated cell or two could reach low end severe criteria, but widespread severe storms appear unlikely. The cold front will be slow to move east Wednesday night into Thursday. FWIW, the front is not expected to clear the forecast area until Thursday afternoon. This will make for a mild night across the area. In fact, the forecast low 59 degrees for North Platte Thursday morning would be a record high minimum temperature for that date. The warm minimum temps Thursday morning are also highlighted in the latest EFI and SOT forecast. As front pushes into central and eastern Nebraska Thursday into Thursday evening, another round of thunderstorms should develop INVOF the front. Currently, have the best chances for precipitation generally east of highway 83. Beyond Thursday night, am expecting dry conditions as a ridge builds back into the central CONUS late in the weekend into early next week. For Saturday through Monday, Saturday will be the coolest with highs in the lower 60s. Sunday morning appears to be coolest with widespread lows in the 30s. Temps will then rebound back into the middle 60s to around 70 with lows Sunday night in the lower 40s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 554 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 Overcast skies with VFR ceilings this evening. Ceilings will lower at both terminals with MVFR ceilings developing at KLBF by 10Z, and lowering to IFR by 17Z Tuesday. VFR ceilings tonight at KVTN, lowering to MVFR after 13Z, and to IFR by 20Z. A few showers over the Sandhills tonight with VCSH at KVTN. Showers will increase in coverage late tonight through Tuesday at both terminals. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Buttler SHORT TERM...Buttler LONG TERM...Buttler AVIATION...Roberg